Future VW fate and it's impact on Porsche values
 

I would be interested to hear the opinion of this forum regarding the potential fate of VW and it's impact on Porsche values. If for example VW goes out of business.

The deal with VW will probably prompt Hagerty to increase Turbo valuations by at least $100,000, even for number 4 examples, and $50,000 for all other aircooled 911 models (even Targas)! :)

Vw won't go out of biz. Too important to the German economy. The shareholders will take a massive hit but the company will go on.

The biggest risk I see is that the radicals that run the emission rules both here and in europe will jump at the opportunity to kick the auto industry while it's down and raise the bar further,and that the carmakers in an excess of zeal to demonstrate they're good guys will overcomply, leading to a couple of generations of cars with weak power and tall gearing and the such.

To think VW will go out of business is ludicrous, as is any impact on P-car values.

Only impact I can see is that a new Porsche CEO will be appointed. In a normal car company you might expect to see a new CEO come in with a new agenda - which could change product direction 3-5 years out.

However, Porsche is not a normal company and it's unlikely the family would bring in a new CEO with dramatic changes in mind.

And none of this is likely to impact prior year values.

Every car maker goes through its moment in the sun with negative publicity. Think chebby recently, Toyota not to long ago...etc...etc..... What about the Audi "unintended accellertion"..... That is not going to change my mind about my S4.....


MattR

A telling consideration is whether VW will need to raise cash to get through this. Aside from the huge fines and likely even "huger" lawsuit settlements and buy-backs , if sales tank for an extended period (likely, IMO) the losses could be unprecedented. VW does have some government backing already (20% owned by the government of Saxony) but tapping public funds would only come after much belt-tightening.

So across the family range there could be delays in new projects and cutbacks in motorsports (e.g. the rumored F1 project that was supposedly close to announcement is already DOA). And would the German people and gov't sit by if there are layoffs in the homeland but no pain at Lambo in Italy and Bugatti in France? Could those corporate vanity marques be on the block if things really get bad? EDIT: I forgot Bentley in the UK. And then there's SEAT in Spain - which has not had a great relationship with, or been much loved by, the father ship in the past as I recall.

Of course this is all conjecture - but it will be interesting to watch.

Lambo in italy is a tiny operation with crazy rich margins.

Yep.

Vw
 

It's a very complex business, but VW didn't "cheat" or try to save money in some way that could cause injury or death - as some automakers over the years did (Ford with the Pinto and Chevy with PU fuel tank designs, chevy ignition, etc.).

VW can't "blame" an aftermarket supplier (i.e., Takata airbags) which hurts some, and it depends on what level signed off on the action (the higher up the worse in any conspiracy).

VW will take the hit, drive on, and pull through the crisis. It will be costly to an already somewhat fragile diesel market in the U.S., so long term - who knows? I traded my TDI wagon for a BMW 3 series before the mess. MY TDI was problem free at 100k miles, but I missed rear wheel drive and good steering.

I could see resale values dropping and new diesels sitting on lots (or moved with incentives). I think with continued low gas prices and this mess, the diesel market could be substantially impacted...

In March 2016, I would load up on VW stock.

Germany will save them, they just need to get in line with all the refugees.

If I was considering a VW before, this wouldn't stop me from buying one.
The engineers just got sick and tired of mandates, so they invented a brilliant cheat, and got caught.

I've always loved a good bank robbery or jewel heist where no one gets hurt, but hey, maybe it's just me.

Totally agree. If you ask me, VW should get a medal for sticking it to those EPA radicals and their stupid rules.

Buy VW Stock....still one of the best handling and engineered cars "for the masses"

Uh-oh:

and.......

My daughter bought a TDI Beetle for the gas mileage, not the emissions numbers.

Meh. Nobody's irreplaceable.

I actually agree.

The "uh oh" part of that was meant to be about the significant widening and deepening of the financial hit this will turn out to be. And the fact that the long lasting buyer stigma - at least among the green crowd - is going to spread to Audi. Especially in Europe where speculation is already surfacing that some groups will try to tie increased emissions to increased deaths as part of the announced criminal investigations (bizarre, yes, but anything goes with environmentalists lawyers and political parties.)

I added in the news on the Porsche R&D head exit as an afterthought. Of course one person being suspended is not going to have an impact on Porsche's future. But from the viewpoint of the all-important political damage control, it takes some air out of the argument that Mueller is coming to VW to clean house with no connection at all to this ever-widening corporate scandal.

As I said before, all speculation but it's a fascinating drama to watch unfold.

This was not brilliant on VW's part. Right now they are a dirt bag company who got caught. The biggest car company just got greedy. Many more heads will roll including high up American officials. I will never again buy a VW car. But I will buy an Audi RS 5 coupe!!!!!!