State of the market – january 2017

[billh1963]

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/Articles/2017/01/19/january-2017-state-of-the-market?utm_source=MagnetMail&utm_medium=email&utm_ term=bladerunner4105@yahoo.com&utm_content=17-Hagerty%20Weekly%20News%2002-01&utm_campaign=Video%3A%20A%2040-year%20search%20for%20a%20car%2C%20the%20state%20o f%20the%20market%20and%20top%20five%20comeback%20n ameplates

STATE OF THE MARKET – JANUARY 2017
By: Brian Rabold
The more things change, the more they stay the same. That’s certainly how the collector car market seems in 2017.

The market shed speed in 2016, much as it did through 2015. But values over the past 12 months have generally remained stable, although price retreats took hold in formerly white-hot segments. Overall, North American auction sales dropped by 14 percent (now down to 2013 levels), but values for the overwhelming majority of cars on the road remained mostly unchanged. As a result, the Hagerty Market Rating only dipped from 70.41 in January 2016 to 67.19 in January 2017 and stayed at a level indicative of overall growth.

Lately, cars at the top of the market (excluding extremely rare and significant examples like the Le Mans-winning Jaguar D-Type and the first Shelby Cobra built that sold in Monterey) have seen the steepest depreciation. Models priced above $100,000 were all slower to sell in 2016 than the previous year, with values being impacted as a result—average auction sale prices for the Mercedes-Benz 300SL declined 8 percent, Series I Jaguar E-Types slipped 16 percent, Ferrari 275s dropped 22 percent, 1964-73 Porsche 911s fell by more than 30 percent and Ferrari Daytonas fell 34 percent. As further proof, the number of million-dollar sales at auction dropped 26 percent from 2015 to 2016. This tier saw the highest number of value reductions in Hagerty Price Guide 32 than at any point since 2010.

Some of this adjustment is attributable to an increase in average quality examples of these models coming to market. A stronger U.S. dollar has also dampened European demand for cars that are located stateside. In any event, supply seems to be outpacing demand.

On the positive side, rising interest in modern collector cars continues bolstering the market, although buyer preference is shifting from cars of the 1980s and ’90s to cars built since 2000. Hagerty clients added 27 percent more cars from the 2000s to their policies in 2016 than 2015, and 40 percent more cars from the 2010s.

Modern cars that are currently in favor fit the general collector car profile: low-production variants of performance models, some connection to race history and a strong historic brand presence. Leaders include cars like the impossible-to-find LaFerrari and Porsche 911R to the Ferrari 488 Italia and even more “common” cars like the Ford Mustang Shelby GT500. Nostalgia still motivates many collectors, but those same collectors are also increasingly interested in cars that provide modern conveniences (both in terms of comfort and experience). In some cases, modern cars are able to pull off both.

Outside of modern collectibles, more affordable cars are also seeing a lot of sustained interest. As buyers exercise more caution when purchasing something expensive, they also increasingly consider more options at lower price points. Presently, the sub-$50,000 market is the most vibrant segment.

The forecast for 2017 continues the course set over the last 18 months, with values holding steady overall and the top of the market perhaps stepping back slightly further. For open-minded enthusiasts who seek emotional returns just as much as financial ones, there are plenty of opportunities to find a fun car with little long-term financial risk. For most of us, that’s reason enough to be excited about what lies ahead.

[Unobtanium-inc]

The market starting sliding after Brexit and continued through the election, at least for early 9 series and 356's. The European's got a little scared and stopped buying with gusto and taking them out of the equation really hurts the market. I had guys who went from buying 3-4 cars at a time in May/June to beating me up on price for one come October/November. Nothing sells in the winter so it's too early to say anything about 2017. We normally don't sell anything between December and March, the only people really buying during that time are dealers stocking up for Spring, so if you sell in this time period you are normally wholesaling. There are exceptions, but generally this is all true. Hoping Spring picks back up where last Spring and Summer were, I have a whole yard full of stuff to sell and if the market keeps slipping it won't be fun.
This is my take, I'm sure some will argue but I sell a lot of Porsches and watch/hear a lot of deals happen, so my sense of the market is normally pretty good.

---Adam

[Macroni]

Interesting take Adam...... The euros dive from 1.4 to 1.05 has certainly changed european buying power. Interesting that Haggerty sees a 30% reduction on long hood pricing......

[pu911]

My (anecdotal) take is 69-73 911 market peaked in late 2014. I think really excellent examples are still trading for strong money but everything was selling in 2014. There have been quite a few 911 hot rods sell lately for $200k + so that part of the market seems to have come back to life.

Phil

[Unobtanium-inc]

Originally Posted by Macroni

Interesting take Adam...... The euros dive from 1.4 to 1.05 has certainly changed european buying power. Interesting that Haggerty sees a 30% reduction on long hood pricing......

The European's fueled much of the buying over the last few years so any drop in their activity will be felt. I'm hoping the market comes back strong in the Spring but most of what I have now is 356's, which I've found is always a much more stable market then the 9 series market. Like when the market dropped in 2007-2008, I put all my 911's and 912's in my old warehouse and didn't bring them out until the last couple of years. It worked out well, they sold for a lot more.


---Adam

[GT Jones]

I'm curious where the ultra low mileage '79 930 market is these days. Did all the good ones trade hands?

[pu911]

Originally Posted by GT Jones

I'm curious where the ultra low mileage '79 930 market is these days. Did all the good ones trade hands?

They are still around- there is a lot more than just ultra low miles that makes these valuable.

Phil

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by pu911

There have been quite a few 911 hot rods sell lately for $200k + so that part of the market seems to have come back to life.

Phil

It does seem high end 911 hot rods have maintained or realized their value. The three sold on BAT in the last year, the 69RSR, tangerine 84 RSR and yesterday's ST and Autokennel has sold three, Steven Harris 84 RSR, two Scott Longballa 911 STs all sold well. Three of the cars sold north of $200,000.

Given the price tag of a Singer these must seem to be bargains.....

[Jim2]

Originally Posted by pu911

They are still around- there is a lot more than just ultra low miles that makes these valuable.

Phil

I keep thinking about a thread to discuss mileage. Lots of mystery "low mile" 930 inventory has come out of the woodwork the last couple years, 10 years ago the average cross section of ads showed higher miles. Speedo shops been busy.

[aicautos]

In reference to the Hagerty article...Total dollar amounts sold from one year to the next, have nothing to do with actual vehicle value going up or down...Remember how many thought that Hagerty values were pie in the sky in recent years? This data was gathered the same way...Without individual hands on assessment of the cars in question... With no regard for the Euro to Dollar decline, or the political **** storm the world has gone through the past 7 months.
It's like in many dealerships, the Inventory Management Software tells you to wholesale that convertible because it's 180 days old....Without any regard to the logical fact that its February here in the Northeast, and in another 45 days it'll increase about 2G's!
There are of course others in the business who use their vast experience and logic to manage inventory. We have seen fewer cars on market, but considering the exchange rate, politics, and weather, its understandable, As for values, as always Feb & March will bring out aggressive Spring buying by the "smart" dealers, thereby increasing the prices. In other words, the snowball has stopped rolling, and its business as usual.

[voitureltd]

Quote:
Originally Posted by GT Jones View Post
I'm curious where the ultra low mileage '79 930 market is these days. Did all the good ones trade hands?
Quote:
They are still around- there is a lot more than just ultra low miles that makes these valuable.
^^^^^^^
Good point,
My 2 cents seeing this is market place discussion. From my perspective, even after the price run up, not to motivated on some of these, especially with the current pause.

[GTRMANIAC]

[1979-930]

^^^ That driveway has severe subgrade failure.


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