[jyl]

AAPL is good at playing the game via managing expectations. They regularly guide low so that they can beat the consensus estimate. However, investors aren't total dupes so there is a real expectations number out there (also called "whisper number") that they have to beat for stock to go up. This qtr I think the published expectation was $0.72 and they needed to beat by at least 15 cents or so, or the stock would have fallen.

Fundamentally, AAPL's business is doing very well so they are able to play the game. When their fundamentals begin to slow and then fall, managing expectations won't keep the stock from falling. But until there, managing expectations helps keep the stock moving up semi-smoothly rather than spiking and plunging as investor expectations get too high.

The difference between published consensus and the real expectations is one reason why you'll often see XYZ company beat consensus and stock goes down, or ABC company missed consensus and stock goes up.