A New High Today

[tabs]

The SP 500 closed at 2874 today surpassing the the old high of 2872 in late January. This higher high sets the stage for 2900 as the next milestone. The stage is basically set with the guarantee of FED activism and a seemingly robust economy to reach 3000. Beyond that level one does not want to get ahead of oneself.

This event comes as no surprise as articulated previously.
4.

[Scott R]

Not tanking?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Scott R

Not tanking?

Not tanking.

Who ever came up with that is out to lunch to put it politely. Given Equities long bull run starting with the FED's implementation of QE3. The fix was in and so remains. The FED gives equities confidence.

[Jim Bremner]

So, not time to pull out and wait to buy cheaper?

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by tabs

Not tanking.

.... Given Equities long bull run starting with the FED's implementation of QE3. The fix was in and so remains. The FED gives equities confidence.

Methinks the bull began to gallop LONG before QE3...

[tabs]

Originally Posted by KC911

Methinks the bull began to gallop LONG before QE3...

No. From 09 through 2010..was a snap back rally from deeply over sold conditions. 2010..2012..market was trading even with upward bias..remember the EU problems and US govt shut down? With the announcement of QE3 Equities NEVER LOOKED BACK.

Remember I have been involved in Equities for nearly 30 years as a source of income.

[recycled sixtie]

[QUOTE=tabs;Remember I have been involved in Equities for nearly 30 years as a source of income.[/QUOTE]

You tell us after the fact. Are you going to hold equities indefinitely?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Jim Bremner

So, not time to pull out and wait to buy cheaper?

If you got out you would still be waiting. So tell me exactly what has changed in the paradigm?

Think of this....equities went up since 2012 no matter what kind of shyte happened. WHY? The answer is because the FED was providing the stability necessary with their guaranteed activism.

[ckelly78z]

2008/2009 was the strictest housing start regulations, and was basically impossible to qualify for a new home loan, and not much easier to qualify for an auto loan. Banks had been burnt bad by their loose policy's of the late 90s, and early 2000s when most people overextended themselves, and banks gave loans to anyone who had an income.

Banks have slowly forgotten 2008, and have loosened loan qualifications to the point that most people are living beyond their means, and would be a catastrophe if they lost their jobs.

Consumer confidence is probably too high at the current time, and I could see another housing crash if this keeps pace.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by recycled sixtie

You tell us after the fact. Are you going to hold equities indefinitely?

If the FED loses credibility you will have far bigger problems to worry about than your Equity position. The reason why the FED announced the TAPER off from QE3 in April 2013 was to maintain their credibility that they just were not going to print money willy nilly forever. Somebody whispered in their ear.

Nothing has changed, nothing has been fixed. You are still sitting on a debt wmd. Everybody just puts their heads in the sand.

[VincentVega]

I've been taking profits every few months. No big changes but with rates going up and a nice gain in the market it makes sense to pay down a small heloc. I'm not as confident on continued upside, if only because of the seemingly endless geopolitical 'issues'. Add in stagnant wages and lots of debt and I'm ok being a little cautious.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by ckelly78z

2008/2009 was the strictest housing start regulations, and was basically impossible to qualify for a new home loan, and not much easier to qualify for an auto loan. Banks had been burnt bad by their loose policy's of the late 90s, and early 2000s when most people overextended themselves, and banks gave loans to anyone who had an income.

Banks have slowly forgotten 2008, and have loosened loan qualifications to the point that most people are living beyond their means, and would be a catastrophe if they lost their jobs.

Consumer confidence is probably too high at the current time, and I could see another housing crash if this keeps pace.

Auto loans.....student loans. Simply they need to loan money to lessor qualified people so that the economy of scale system can grind on. Remember that trillion dollar deficit is being pumped into economy as well.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by VincentVega

I've been taking profits every few months. No big changes but with rates going up and a nice gain in the market it makes sense to pay down a small heloc. I'm not as confident on continued upside, if only because of the seemingly endless geopolitical 'issues'. Add in stagnant wages and lots of debt and I'm ok being a little cautious.

To repeat myself equities have gone up since 2012 in spite of all the shyte that has gone on. The caveat as always is a black swan type of event happening. Like ww3.

Keep on being cautious and equities will continue to go up. The FED guarntee is what propels the market and nothing else. That paradigm remains intact.

[wildthing]

If we back out the 10 big gainers this year, the S&P 500 actually down.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by wildthing

If we back out the 10 big gainers this year, the S&P 500 actually down.

The breath of winners to losers is more important. Which would indicate that many on the SP 500 are up or down fractionally. After the big gains since the end of 2016 is that a surprise? Consolidation?

The fact that the SP 500 is "actually" down is a reflection that things ain't so swell out there in the hinterland.

My ongoing take is that this "robust economy" stuff is window dressing and that the reality out there for Joe Main Street is pretty tough. Not a fking thing has been fixed or changed. The trajectory remains the same.

When BO was around it was the Liberals that I had to contend with while the Cons cheered me on. Now the shoe is on the other foot with Trump and it is the Cons that I have to contend with while the Liberals cheer. The problem is that neither side is playing with a full deck, in that they subscribe economic performance to which side is in office.

What I keep getting at is that the economy (market performance) has a life of it's own which is moved by bigger forces (it is an unseen world that you can not quantify and is beyond the 5 senses) than what meets the eye. Politics has become only one facet of the ongoing dynamic. Yet nobody seems to be conscience of that fact. You Boyz persist with your simple minded delusions, and may God help anyone who try's to disuade the herd from them.

[MBAtarga]

Originally Posted by wildthing

If we back out the 10 big gainers this year, the S&P 500 actually down.

If we back out the 10 biggest losers this year, the S&P 500 went up even further.

[tabs]

Here is something for you to ponder. Both sides are arguing incessantly and with increasing vehemence their unique positions. Those unique positions in of themselves are inconsequential. The important thing to realize is that both sides are arguing with each other. The question becomes what is the driving causation for the disagreement. What is the hidden force that puts a bee in everybody's bonnet?

There is obviously a problem lurking out there that needs to be solved. The disagreement is over the solution to the problem and the course to take in ameliorating that problem. So each side is arguing their solution, which the other side disagrees with.

Nobody has the clarity to even be able define the problem. Both sides are caught up in their own position and have become increasingly entrenched and extremist. Yet the problem grows worse and the craziness increases as the pressure caused by the problem builds. This is a historical human pattern that time after time has led to catastrophic failure.

That is my message, which I dare say nobody that I have come across is clearly aware of let alone can navigate through the vagaries of those shoals.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by tabs

No. From 09 through 2010..was a snap back rally from deeply over sold conditions. 2010..2012..market was trading even with upward bias..remember the EU problems and US govt shut down? With the announcement of QE3 Equities NEVER LOOKED BACK.

Remember I have been involved in Equities for nearly 30 years as a source of income.

....and you wear draggin' azz jeans too !

.....my version is a ten year bull run...you can call it...a bs run. Fed quit juicing years ago, have been consistently raising rates on the path they stated/started back in '15, and are slowing unloading the stimili they purchased...
the market will correct (as always)....and the Fed won't do crap...unless....oh crap .

[tabs]

Originally Posted by KC911

....and you wear draggin' azz jeans too !

.....my version is a ten year bull run...you can call it...a bs run. Fed quit juicing years ago, have been consistently raising rates on the path they stated/started back in '15, and are slowing unloading the stimili they purchased...
the market will correct (as always)....and the Fed won't do crap...unless....oh crap .

The EU Central bank is still juicing through December/18. 35B a month.

BOJ backed off their QE policy in 12/17....soon followed by US equities correcting in January. They too have joined the tightening bandwagon.

The Chinese on the other hand are using the stealthy "quasi" QE method of reducing capital reserve requirements of banks (which are state owned entities). With reduced reserves, they have more to lend in order to juice.


While one Central Bank curtails a QE program another steps their QE up. Why the choreography? Simple, each one in turn needs to QE or curtail in order to maintain a monetary and fiscal equilibrium. It is one he11 of a ho down dance party.

My thinking is that without QE of one sort or another, which includes sovereign debt creation the global economy soon finds it self in dire straits.


Debt in of itself is only the eventual instrument of your destruction. It is not in of itself the causation . Think of it as playing Russian Roulette where after each time you pull the trigger of adding new debt you add another bullet into the cylinder of the revolver..sooner or later the odds catch up to you.

The question becomes why do you need debt creation to support spending on both a private and sovereign level? I can wait...

To give you a bit of help...Liberals believe that their social programs which cost boo koo bucks btw help disadvantaged people get by and live with a modicum of dignity. I think that is a neutral statement. The core issue here is that you are helping through subsidization disadvantaged people have a higher standard of living than what would otherwise be affordable for them. The key issue in this is the HIGHER STANDARD OF LIVING which everyone aspires to at least maintain. The truth of the matter is that every single American from Gates and Buffet down is living beyond their means (On a collective or societal basis).

If the global economy did not have to resort to juicing through deficit spending or monetary juicing (remember it started in 68 for the USA) Gates would not have been able to develop Microsoft to the level it has reached nor would Buffet have had the ability to make as much money as he has by investing. It in the end is the perceptional mindset of your modern life style that is fking you and is going to cause a bad end. It is the syndrome of the Lemmings.

You will not be dissuaded from this mindset until the fat lady bites you on the azz while she is singing. Then you will have no choice but to face stark reality in the face. It is called a reversion to the mean of human existence.

Now it is after 5 PM where I am at, so I am gona get jucied up and have a bourbon on the rocks for some end of summer libation.

[sugarwood]

tabs, please disclose exactly how your assets are allocated.
Please state percentages like a pie chart.

eg:
S&P 500 fund = 20%
Bond ETF = 15%
Home Equity = 50%
Cash = 10%
Bitcoin = 5%