Next recession?

[RSBob]

[KFC911]

The fundamentals of our economy are sound...or not

I see lots of good signs....been that way for quite a few years now. Driven by a long, slow steady world-wide recovery, stimuli, and cheap, easy DEBT.... the party is now over...we're looking at a slowdown...worldwide.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

You nailed it KC with debt. I think we've been experiencing a corporate debt bubble with cheap easy money. It's great for shareholders and C-suite compensation but when earnings start to not measure up to the promise of the debt, there's going to be trouble. You actually have to service the debt. Tied to the corporate debt bubble, the stock market has simply been a more buyers than sellers situation. 2019 will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

You would think we would have learned our lesson by now, slow and steady growth is so much better than jumping from bubble to bubble.

EDIT: Forgot about the corporate tax cuts. Those are going to hurt.

[Jims5543]

Originally Posted by KC911

The fundamentals of our economy are sound...or not

I see lots of good signs....been that way for quite a few years now. Driven by a long, slow steady world-wide recovery, stimuli, and cheap, easy DEBT.... the party is now over...we're looking at a slowdown...worldwide.

The Fed is crashing the party, the last rate hike caused a very negative reaction. They do not care and are going to hike it again in December and 4 more times in 2019 sealing the deal.

While some are cheering that interest rates need to be higher. Keep in mind we have an unsustainable national debt that is going careen out of control now that the interest rates are climbing. Right now the US is accumulating 300-400 Billion a year in debt just from interest on current debt. This is unsustainable and we will pay for this.


The housing market took a big hit in October, some economists are saying we are going to look back at October 2018 as the start of the next housing crash.

For what it is worth, in my small world I am seeing 2007 all over again. Everyone stopped buying houses, they are waiting for the prices to start going down because the interest rates are getting too high.

Stupid builders do not understand and they are contributing to the problem, they are all balls to the wall. I only work with 1 tract home builder now. I purposefully pulled away from builders and moved to Title Companies, Lawyers and financial institutions, they will all still be here after a housing crash, builders go bankrupt and close down.

Right now, I am seeing my builders increase the house production instead of slowing their roll. Now they are adding to the problem, huge inventories sitting unsold.

They are starting 5 houses a week and selling 1 a week right now. They have been all through October and in November they are starting more like 10 houses a week. Still not selling any more than before.

It has started with another housing crash, next will be defaulted car loans, after that credit cards. Banks are going to look for another bail out.

Bill Maher is getting his wish. Seems a few in this thread too will have reason to celebrate, while the world burns down around them.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/bill-maher-is-hoping-for-an-economic-collapse-so-he-can-get-rid-of-trump-sorry-if-that-hurts-people

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by Jims5543

The Fed is crashing the party, the last rate hike caused a very negative reaction. They do not care and are going to hike it again in December and 4 more times in 2019 sealing the deal.

While some are cheering that interest rates need to be higher. Keep in mind we have an unsustainable national debt that is going careen out of control now that the interest rates are climbing. Right now the US is accumulating 300-400 Billion a year in debt just from interest on current debt. This is unsustainable and we will pay for this.


The housing market took a big hit in October, some economists are saying we are going to look back at October 2018 as the start of the next housing crash.

For what it is worth, in my small world I am seeing 2007 all over again. Everyone stopped buying houses, they are waiting for the prices to start going down because the interest rates are getting too high.

....

There would be no "party to crash" were it not for the Fed's bailout....they (and US are) still digging out....many became exuberant....again . The Fed will continue to do what they said they were gonna do since '15....slow & steady...back to "normal" rate increases...still have another 4 .25 increases to go. Despite the rhetoric...it's fiscally conservative...imo.
Those voting members are too...for the most part....the politicians sure aren't....either party .

edited: Interest rates are still LOW btw...

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Sigh, no. Here's how debate works. Someone, like Ted for example makes a claim: Deregulation has spurred the economy.

The next step in debate is someone says show me your supporting evidence. That's me, here I am:



Then Ted, or you as his proxy, says, hey, this regulation 50034.LL2.FG was repealed which resulted in $36 trillion of new taxable income every month. Here's where I got the math and supporting evidence...

Then I respond to that.

Here's the thing that you aren't asking yourself and I'm not quite sure why you aren't. Why can't you find 10 or 5 or 1 thoroughly analyzed example like the repeal of regulation 50034.LL2.FG?

I know you are googling all around and can't really come up with anything because no one has done the analysis because there isn't anything to analyze, and have had to resort to generalities and truisms to support your case, but why aren't you scratching your head wondering why you can't find anything detailed. Other than, "It's not my thing."

Helping the blind to see is not my thing. I supported my claim and you cried fake news while failing miserably to support your claim that getting rid of the regulations did nothing. Stop being lazy and try supporting your claim. As i have repeatedly pointed out there is a cost associated with regulations. I gave you and anyone else the search terms to use to see the same info i have seen. Yes Shaun getting rid of regulations has economic benefit. You crying fake news or complaining about the source doesn't disprove the my assertion dut it does honestly make you look childish and uninformed. They say with age comes wisdom, at 51 you better hope the wisdom starts coming quicker than the age

[Shaun @ Tru6]

[cabmandone]

Attaboy roll eyes but don't try supporting your own claim. Time to put on big boy pants.

[Jims5543]

Originally Posted by KC911

There would be no "party to crash" were it not for the Fed's bailout....they (and US are) still digging out....many became exuberant....again . The Fed will continue to do what they said they were gonna do since '15....slow & steady...back to "normal" rate increases...still have another 4 .25 increases to go. Despite the rhetoric...it's fiscally conservative...imo.
Those voting members are too...for the most part....the politicians sure aren't....either party .

edited: Interest rates are still LOW btw...

The bailout should have never happened IMHO. We needed to take our lumps and we did not. Instead of standing in food lines we were in line to get the newest iphone.

Read Japans lost decade, we did the same, we tried to bail ourselves out. By spending our selves out.

There were no consequence for the actions of the banks and the nation as a whole.

Therefore, we are domed to repeat ourselves, which we are doing right now.

CC debt is at record highs, people are financing cars that cost 2x what my first house cost me. There is no regard for fiscal responsibility nor does there have to be.

The fed will raise the interest rates despite the negative market reaction, which will get worse with every hike. Until we crash hard. We started crashing already, no one wants to admit it or recognizes it yet.

I am on vacation the moment I get home some toys are going up for sale. Time to sell.

I see it, I am just hoping to grab more gold before it shoots up.

[nota]

Originally Posted by Jims5543

The bailout should have never happened IMHO. We needed to take our lumps and we did not. Instead of standing in food lines we were in line to get the newest iphone.




I see it, I am just hoping to grab more gold before it shoots up.

I see silver dimes as a better trade good for a can of soup in worst case times
as gold is too valuable and eazy to fake ect to trade for food or other supplies

while a silver dime has value but not too much

[Jims5543]

Originally Posted by nota

I see silver dimes as a better trade good for a can of soup in worst case times
as gold is too valuable and eazy to fake ect to trade for food or other supplies

while a silver dime has value but not too much

My plan is bigger, instead of paying my house off early, I took that extra money and bought gold.

When gold spikes again, I have enough to cash in and pay off my mortgage.

I have silver dollars too, they will come in handy if I need barter money. I also have a lot of ammo. That should help with bartering too if it gets that ugly.

[cabmandone]

My plan is to sit in a tree stand and argue with Shaun. Seems to be working. Now if someone can send a nice 10 point my way my plan will have been a total successs

[stomachmonkey]

There is a ****show a brewin of that there is no doubt.

How do I know?

My money guy is decimating forests for the pulp to send me updates on all his activity on my behalf.

When I see a daily flood of activity from him I know it's going to be bad.

He's been right every time so far over the years.

[Tervuren]

There are powerful interested parties in seeing things go bad within the next year or so in order that they can offer themselves as the fix.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Jims5543

The bailout should have never happened IMHO. We needed to take our lumps and we did not. Instead of standing in food lines we were in line to get the newest iphone.

Read Japans lost decade, we did the same, we tried to bail ourselves out. By spending our selves out.

There were no consequence for the actions of the banks and the nation as a whole.

Therefore, we are domed to repeat ourselves, which we are doing right now.

CC debt is at record highs, people are financing cars that cost 2x what my first house cost me. There is no regard for fiscal responsibility nor does there have to be.

The fed will raise the interest rates despite the negative market reaction, which will get worse with every hike. Until we crash hard. We started crashing already, no one wants to admit it or recognizes it yet.

I am on vacation the moment I get home some toys are going up for sale. Time to sell.

I see it, I am just hoping to grab more gold before it shoots up.

Without the bailout the financial markets would have crashed and we would still be up the proverbial creek. As distasteful as it was it was a necessity.

Rates need to climb. It is no secret that increased rates lower corp profits. "Don't fight the fed"

[Jims5543]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Without the bailout the financial markets would have crashed and we would still be up the proverbial creek. As distasteful as it was it was a necessity.

Rates need to climb. It is no secret that increased rates lower corp profits. "Don't fight the fed"

Disagree, we have lost 10 years so far and the ONLY reason we are still not in a funk is due to optimism due to current governorship.

We needed to crash, we needed to take our lumps.

I do not want to get all parfy. So lets just say we enjoyed a Trump bump, which I never saw coming and it is about to end. Even Trump cannot stop what is on the horizon.

We spent Trillions trying to make the people of our nation happy and placid so our Hope and change could continue. It worked. Instead of a depression, we had a hard recession, instead of bread lines we had iphone lines. Instead of a full economic crash we de-valued our dollar and while that has not caught up to us.... yet... it will. If you have not read about the lost decade you need to we copied that.

We cannot sustain this spending, we cannot sustain the debt this country carries, it is coming home to roost soon. Will it end our nation? Will it be that bad? I have no idea... I am somewhat prepped, enough food for 6 months on hand enough ammo for longer, a network of good friends where we can work off each other and keep ourselves fed and in sheltered.

I really hope we do not go full Venezuela, I cannot help but wonder if that is where we are heading.

[cabmandone]

My plan worked!! Thanks Shaun!
BTW, worst shot I have put on a deer in years! I can't believe he only made it 150 yards and dropped!

[Shaun @ Tru6]

I'm always here for you Nick. Nice deer and have a great Thanksgiving! So much to be thankful for.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Jims5543

Disagree, we have lost 10 years so far and the ONLY reason we are still not in a funk is due to optimism due to current governorship.

We needed to crash, we needed to take our lumps.

I do not want to get all parfy. So lets just say we enjoyed a Trump bump, which I never saw coming and it is about to end. Even Trump cannot stop what is on the horizon.

We spent Trillions trying to make the people of our nation happy and placid so our Hope and change could continue. It worked. Instead of a depression, we had a hard recession, instead of bread lines we had iphone lines. Instead of a full economic crash we de-valued our dollar and while that has not caught up to us.... yet... it will. If you have not read about the lost decade you need to we copied that.

We cannot sustain this spending, we cannot sustain the debt this country carries, it is coming home to roost soon. Will it end our nation? Will it be that bad? I have no idea... I am somewhat prepped, enough food for 6 months on hand enough ammo for longer, a network of good friends where we can work off each other and keep ourselves fed and in sheltered.

I really hope we do not go full Venezuela, I cannot help but wonder if that is where we are heading.

They didn't spend trillions to make people happy or placid. They spent trillions to keep rhe financial sector afloat.

There would have been no home loans. No car loans. No business loans. For years. It would have been disastrous.

Poor policy leqding up to 2008 created the mess. (See The Warning on PBS). Poor policy after had added to our debt.

Debt at the current level of 105% of GDP is too high but is still manageable. If we don't see the debt to gdp drop from current levels we will be playing with fire.

Our leadership in DC ( all parties ) refuses to tackle our pressing problems and by doing so allowed those problems to be far more difficult and expensive to correct.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

I'm always here for you Nick. Nice deer and have a great Thanksgiving! So much to be thankful for.

Agree 100%. Happy Thanksgiving to you as well. But come Monday I'm going to have to pick a fight with you again. One more deer and I'm done for the season