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LWJ LWJ is offline
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Next recession?

When? How bad? What caused it?

I hear lots of folks say 2020. I have a supplier with a huge international reach. They say q2 2019.

Question is what is coming and how to prepare?

Thanks!
Old 11-04-2018, 07:48 PM
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I agree there is one coming. Unemployment is very low, meaning the lowest, least productive workers are now on the payroll, so productivity will go down. Trade policy is going to mess with unemployment, so we don’t know where that is going. How you prepare depends on what recession problem you want to solve. Employment? Sales?
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:09 PM
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Jan 2019
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:41 PM
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+1. A couple people whose opinions I respect--bankers--say Q1 2019.
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:55 PM
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What criteria are you going by? I don't see "negative" GDP # anytime soon, but the Trump "sugar high" is fading fast imo, that, along with other factors (tariff bs) is about to slow things down considerably imo. GDP growth at 2.5-3% is the "new", sustainable "normal" imo...when no "juice" is being added to the mix. If y'all don't like my numbers... I can make up new ones

...and the debt...shhhh!

It's just time....
Old 11-05-2018, 01:20 AM
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What happens tomorrow will go a long way toward telling us when.
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Old 11-05-2018, 02:18 AM
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Quote:
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What happens tomorrow will go a long way toward telling us when.
Nope....it's coming, regardless imo. Politicians like to take credit (and not blame), for world wide economic cycles....but...
Old 11-05-2018, 02:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC911 View Post
Nope....it's coming, regardless imo. Politicians like to take credit (and not blame), for world wide economic cycles....but...
This is going to be a tough one to keep out of PARF but if the mail bombing thread didn't get the boot I doubt this one will as long as things stay civil.
It'll come quicker when there's political uncertainty and more gridlock in DC. Sure another recession is coming, there's no question about that. The when and the why are what we're discussing and part of the why will depend on the outcome tomorrow. We have pro growth policies at work today which is why we are about to close out our first full year of 3% GDP growth and it's why consumer confidence is sky high. The donkey party doesn't espouse pro growth policy, they believe in taxing business more which will hinder growth. The good news is, if they fail to win the Senate the House majority becomes relatively meaningless as we'll see what we did under Obama after the House win by republicans in 2010... We'll see gridlock... which will lead to less pro growth policy, which will lead to uncertainty, which will lead to less consumer confidence, which will lead to less consumer spending, which will lead to the next recession.

Decisions by the FED will be a major factor as well. From the little that I have read about the subject, we're seeing a slowing in the housing market as rates for home mortgages increase.
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Last edited by cabmando; 11-05-2018 at 02:45 AM..
Old 11-05-2018, 02:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cabmando View Post
What happens tomorrow will go a long way toward telling us when.
This. While usually economic cycles are largely not politically driven, the long, drawn out pain recovering from the last recession was and the recent boom has been...because in both cases, leaders specifically targeted business to fundamentally change the nation. (rightly or wrongly depending on your social politics). Incredibly poor (or good) leadership in Washington does indeed have an impact. The opening up of more U.S. oil and gas drilling will help keep the momentum up for quite a while if we can get a handle on debt...as the interest is devastating and will be worse as rates go up. Closing the borders and cutting entitlements seems the only way to significantly reduce spending. Once again...it depends on political will (of whomever wins the House and their constituency).

Right now, my bet is that we are in a slight pause (economically) that will continue upward in Nov...unless a significant event changes the trajectory.
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Old 11-05-2018, 03:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cabmando View Post
This is going to be a tough one to keep out of PARF but if the mail bombing thread didn't get the boot I doubt this one will as long as things stay civil.
It'll come quicker when there's political uncertainty and more gridlock in DC. Sure another recession is coming, there's no question about that. The when and the why are what we're discussing and part of the why will depend on the outcome tomorrow. We have pro growth policies at work today which is why we are about to close out our first full year of 3% GDP growth and it's why consumer confidence is sky high. The donkey party doesn't espouse pro growth policy, they believe in taxing business more which will hinder growth. The good news is, if they fail to win the Senate the House majority becomes relatively meaningless as we'll see what we did under Obama after the House win by republicans in 2010... We'll see gridlock... which will lead to less pro growth policy, which will lead to uncertainty, which will lead to less consumer confidence, which will lead to less consumer spending, which will lead to the next recession.

Decisions by the FED will be a major factor as well. From the little that I have read about the subject, we're seeing a slowing in the housing market as rates for home mortgages increase.
The FED is going to continue the path they laid out in '15....the "cheap credit" is over....they should have started a bit earlier imo. The tariffs, if implemented as Trump threatens, will be the largest tax on the US econonomy in my lifetime....

Traditionally....gridlock is GREAT...either party in total control....nah. There hasn't been a fiscally conservative administration in DC in my lifetime imo, despite the rhetoric. Time will tell...

This doesn't need to go to PARF....I'm not looking at this through "partisan glasses" either...at least I don't think so. BOTH parties suck equally well....just different flavors of suck imo
Old 11-05-2018, 03:18 AM
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In 2007 I could see the 2008 housing crash coming. I was able to circle my wagons and get ready.

I am shellshocked due to the wild ride I had to go on for 6 years following. Typically a recession will last a year or two. I was unprepared for the duration.

Up until Sept 2018 I was really busy, 80% of my work was home closings and 20% builders.

In October I slowed a lot, the script flipped, 80% builders 20% closings.

This seemed to be a reaction to the last fed hike.

I am being cautious and just observing now. I hope the enthusiasm and consumer confidence we have seen for the last couple of years can shake this funk off.




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Old 11-05-2018, 03:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cabmando View Post
What happens tomorrow will go a long way toward telling us when.
I disagree. Business cycles come and go on their. Really big external influences can make a difference, but some ebb and flow is a natural part of capitalism.
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Old 11-05-2018, 05:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC911 View Post
Nope....it's coming, regardless imo. Politicians like to take credit (and not blame), for world wide economic cycles....but...
+1
The economy is to big for anything but truly huge external influences to affect it. The cycles come and go. A dozen cycle is a natural result of an up cycle regardless of what politicians do.
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Old 11-05-2018, 05:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gogar View Post
Jan 2019
Or sooner.
Old 11-05-2018, 07:10 AM
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and made worse by the lack of controls on investment houses. The risks that are being taken now are similar to those in 2006. Leveraged, over priced real estate, junk bonds and the like. Too big to fail is coming back to haunt the economy. And all the current administration needs to do is to create the environment (and we are getting close) where the $$ is no longer the reserve go to currency.
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Old 11-05-2018, 07:30 AM
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Fixed.
Old 11-05-2018, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris at Pelican Parts View Post
Fixed.
No recession folks....Chris is here !

Thanks man...
Old 11-05-2018, 11:01 AM
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Old 11-05-2018, 11:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gogar View Post
Jan 2019
Technically impossible. Since a recession is defined as two successive quarters of negative growth and Q3 had significant growth, we cannot be in a recession until Q2 2019, and that would require an immediate turnaround of the economy, which is unlikely.
Yes, the economy is cyclical and a recession must happen again, but without significant outside forces affecting our economy (which have not occurred, so cannot be assumed), it generally doesn't turn on a dime and go from robust growth to recession overnight.
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Old 11-05-2018, 11:11 AM
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One pre-recession indicator is the slope of the yield curve.
Old 11-05-2018, 11:55 AM
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