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Sooner or later 12-05-2018 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10273476)
No, spending increased the national debt. With or without the tax cuts, the spending was higher than the revenue. That national debt would have gone up regardless of the tax cuts. And revenue is higher after the tax cuts than before so technically the tax cuts didn't increase the debt, spending did.
Anyone who wants to get serious about spending cuts and then creating a larger taxpayer base, meaning getting more people paying federal income tax, has my ear. But everyone wants higher taxes on someone else. Screw that! I pay my share and that of at several others who don't currently pay federal income tax. We aren't going to balance any budgets or pay down any debt by creating fewer taxpayers.

Expanding the number of tax payers must be a priority.

Everyone should have income tax skin in the game

sammyg2 12-05-2018 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10273324)
Every regulation? Jesus Christ that is so ******* stupid I can't believe it. No, not every regulation. Some regulations impact business and the economy negatively and some regulations impact business and the economy positively.

I swear, when someone swipes at your face and shows you their thumb in between their fingers, you reach up to check your nose.

Here's what I want to see:
Regulation
Date signed into law
Date repealed
Negative impact
Positive impact

Wanna bet?

Shaun @ Tru6 12-05-2018 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 10273467)
Toss it back in your lap.

What is the current best sweet spot for tax rates.

Give me the date of the specific cut. Give me the specific amount the tax cut cost in revenue.

Hell, we all know my questions are foolish to ask since there are far too many variables to give an accurate answer.

I too am concerned about debt moving forward. I also doubt that the lower rates will help the situation. Though they might. I do know I would support higher payroll tax rates (along with a higher age limit) so we can get SS back in the black..If our leadership can't get SS under control (limited action items available) I have doubts that either party can actually lead us out of the mess.

For a proper discussion of a fix, targeting tax cuts is the most important aspect I believe. One immediate issue is should taxes be used to shape culture and society. There are good points to both sides, government shouldn't pick winners and losers to government should level the playing field or at least call and penalize fouls. It's a terribly interesting discussion I think. As a small business owner who has always been anti-establishment, I have a unique perspective I think. One such is "should greed be regulated?"

Neither party can get us out of this mess. We will continue to jump from bubble to bubble for the next 50 years at least with no sound policy from either party.

This is one reason why I was initially happy with Trump winning, the mantra was run the government like a business. Unfortunately the US is being run like a reality TV show of a Waffle House at 2AM. Who wouldn't want to watch that?

cabmandone 12-05-2018 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 10273479)
Expanding the number of tax payers must be a priority.

Everyone should have income tax skin in the game

Which as much as I like the tax cut I got is one thing I really don't like about the latest round of "tax reform". Expanded eligibility for tax credits and lower statutory rates along with a higher standard deduction will create less taxpayers ultimately.
We should be looking for ways to increase the number of taxpayers. Wages haven't risen significantly enough to rely on them to increase the number of taxpayers.

Shaun,
You can't regulate greed because the desire for more is in everyone. You can no more regulate greed than you can envy. Envy is what makes one person consider another "greedy"

sammyg2 12-05-2018 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yorkie (Post 10273341)
I don't think anyone would would argue that there is not an economic cost to business regulation but the idea of regulation is to create a tangential benefit to society. The auto industry *****ed and moaned about safety regulations but countless people have been spared death and injury from the government forcing the manufacturers to make their vehicles safer. The economic benefit to those laws were less people in hospital, off work, etc. Having had one of my kids in a serious car accident I am grateful that her car was forced to be safe. He driving decision that day is another matter...

Though it is getting much better, China was/is a great example of an unregulated industrial nation. Air quality is awful. Industrial injuries are commonplace. Dangerous products abound. Food quality frightening. When I started working in Asia in the 90s I left I was in a Dickens novel.

With everything there is a balance and the over regulation of an industry can be a death warrant (witness the private plane industry) but under regulation can be dangerous not just to your stock portfolio but your health.

And the price of A car went from $2500 to $40,000
And Detroit went into the dumps and turned into an apocalyptic unemployment war zone.
All because the gubmint stuck it's nose where it did not belong.

Having the gubmint tell the auto makers what they could build and not build is illegal. It is unconstitutional.
It is WRONG!

It is up to the PEOPLE to decide what they want to buy. It should be up to the consumer to dictate if they want to pay more for air bags or crash ratings.
The auto makers should make what the PEOPLE want, not what the gubmint tells them they can make.
That is what makes us stronger, makes us better, and what USED to make the US auto makers world leaders.

But some people can't handle making their own decisions for them. They need a nanny to decide for them. They like being told what they can do, and better yet like EVERYONE ELSE being told what they can do.
Because after all it is up to them, right?

Worse than that, some people are so friggin delusional they think everyone else should be told what they can and can't do. That everyone else should be told what they can do and can't do, either by the "know-it-alls" or the gubmint. Personal freedom and decisions must be eliminated!!!!!!

What made this country great was the emphasis on personal freedom and responsibility. PEOPLE deciding for themselves what path they will take, and their success or failure depended on their decisions and actions.

But the people who made the bad decisions and bad actions said HEY THAT'S NOT FAIR!!!
Why should someone else have more just because they were more responsible?
We can't have that, we need to gubmint to step in and fix it!!!


[/RANT]

sammyg2 12-05-2018 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 10273479)
Expanding the number of tax payers must be a priority.

Everyone should have income tax skin in the game

Agreed.
Suppose a guy has .. .say ... $71,406.40 worth of skin in the game (YTD withholding).
I'd like to think that would be his share and then some.
Yet others who pay a tiny fraction of that say not fair, he got a bigger tax cut! Bah.

If it were up to me (and you are glad it is not) a person's vote would be reflective of how much "skin he has in the game".

Why do we let people who don't pay into the pot, get to help decide how much of it they get?

widebody911 12-05-2018 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10273476)
And revenue is higher after the tax cuts than before so

citation needed

tabs 12-05-2018 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammyg2 (Post 10273234)
People who let their EMOTIONS make all their decisions for them should not be investing in the stock market.

It is all based upon perception and the emotion there in.

The day after T was elected Equities started to rise...It was all based upon the perception that the WH would now be business friendly and the economy would get better. Nothing tangible had been done to effect Equities nor the economy the day after the election.

In that both Shaun and Sammy are wrong.

It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Sooner or later 12-05-2018 10:57 AM

Hell of a lot more than just perception and emotions

S&P 500 earnings per ahare.

Q5 2015 18.70
June 2018 34.05

cabmandone 12-05-2018 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by widebody911 (Post 10273565)
citation needed

Have to correct. Wrong tables.
Check Table IV at the bottom of the page on each link.

Correct links
https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=a&fname=18092800.txt
https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=a&fname=17092900.txt

sammyg2 12-05-2018 06:22 PM

Market was flat today, maybe it's stabilized ;)

ckelly78z 12-06-2018 02:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammyg2 (Post 10274188)
Market was flat today, maybe it's stabilized ;)

Maybe it was closed for mourning POTUS Bush ?

KFC911 12-06-2018 02:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ckelly78z (Post 10274362)
Maybe it was closed for mourning POTUS Bush ?

Sammy ain't that slow...sometimes I think he is too though ;). The stablization is about to cease in 3 hrs....will commence at 4:30 EST...

Y'all can blame who ya want too ...it's Bush's fault :)

sammyg2 12-06-2018 06:36 AM

Down 471 so far this morning. I figure that must have something to do with Jiminy Carter.
Who BTW looked pretty spry for his age at the funeral, Roselyn too.
Must be something in the peanuts keeping them young.

Shaun @ Tru6 12-06-2018 07:24 AM

it's not something in the peanuts, it's building houses for Habit for Humanity that keeps them young.

Jimmy & Rosalynn Carter Work Project

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1544113362.jpg

Shaun @ Tru6 12-06-2018 07:26 AM

Down 691 based on this interesting tactic

Huawei exec's arrest opens a new front in the US-China trade war

tabs 12-06-2018 07:27 AM

The wealth effect is going away. Which will cause main street to contract.

I fear that next year is really going to be bad..and the begining of the longer term slide.

The FED will have to start to accommodate economy at first by holding rates steady and then lowering them. If they can, if they don't it means something bigger and more ominious about USD and Treasury equilibrium is going on.

tabs 12-06-2018 07:30 AM

The pillar of institutional solvency has been Equities.Take that away and...

Shaun @ Tru6 12-06-2018 07:34 AM

Market has been artificially up for a few years now. More buyers than sellers. I think it's the Boomers. Be glad the average Joe working on an assembly line isn't in the stock market. First, they would further pump it up, second, they will be crushed and you will have to pay for them for the rest of your life.

Remember the Panic of 1873? That would be a walk in the park compared to what will happen today.

Sooner or later 12-06-2018 07:39 AM

The average Joe on the assembly line is in the market. Most will have a 401k.

Aver 50 million 401k accounts are active.

You are far off base on that statement

sammyg2 12-06-2018 07:40 AM

Every average Joe with a 401k is in the stock market.

When the gubmint subsidized saving and investing by making it tax-deferred, that forced lots more money into the market which stimulated growth, but also propped up prices.

PE ratios that previously would be considered as horrible became not so bad.
Many short-term positives, but whenever the gubmint manipulates a free market it causes long-term damage.

sammyg2 12-06-2018 07:40 AM

Missed it by that much .....

Shaun @ Tru6 12-06-2018 07:43 AM

oh good lord, yes, I had hoped you would know that that is as common knowledge as the sky is blue.

I meant managing individual stocks.

I'm a macro manager. I always assume people know what I'm talking about if the foundation is obvious.

Panic of 1873.

tabs 12-06-2018 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10274619)
Market has been artificially up for a few years now. More buyers than sellers. I think it's the Boomers. Be glad the average Joe working on an assembly line isn't in the stock market. First, they would further pump it up, second, they will be crushed and you will have to pay for them for the rest of your life.

Remember the Panic of 1873? That would be a walk in the park compared to what will happen today.

Do the joes have pensions? If they do then their retirements are spiraling down the drain. If they don't you are already paying for them now or are going to in the future with SS etc. SS is terminal..only the when is in doubt?

I thought it was already understood from what I have said that everything preceding the coming events is going to look like a walk in the park.

Shaun @ Tru6 12-06-2018 07:47 AM

See above.

I would hate to be a micro manager and have to spell out every last detail that is obvious.

And I assume people paid attention in history class.

tabs 12-06-2018 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10274630)
See above.

I would hate to be a micro manager and have to spell out every last detail that is obvious.

And I assume people paid attention in history class.

Lol

You tell it..tell it like it is..

Sooner or later 12-06-2018 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10274630)
See above.

I would hate to be a micro manager and have to spell out every last detail that is obvious.

And I assume people paid attention in history class.

You were unclear. Most assembly line workers are in the market. Only about 30% of workers have self managed accounts.

Even those 401k accounts allow for easy movement from one sector to another.

sammyg2 12-06-2018 08:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10274625)
oh good lord, yes, I had hoped you would know that that is as common knowledge as the sky is blue.

I meant managing individual stocks.

I'm a macro manager. I always assume people know what I'm talking about if the foundation is obvious.

Panic of 1873.

You said the sky is red.

Sooner or later 12-06-2018 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammyg2 (Post 10274672)
You said the sky is red.

Only an idiot wouldn't realize he was talking about a sunset.

Shaun @ Tru6 12-06-2018 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 10274660)
You were unclear. Most assembly line workers are in the market. Only about 30% of workers have self managed accounts.

Even those 401k accounts allow for easy movement from one sector to another.

OK, I will explain it.

401K. Money is automatically deducted from your paycheck. And typically a small amount. The average Joe worker making $50K/year acclimates to only making $45/year. Slow and steady. Lives within his means in regard to the market.

That same worker takes their life savings of $12,300 and buys the latest hot stocks. Those stocks crash, the market crashes, whatever, his $12,300 is temporarily gone. Add in some panic and we are doomed to repeat history.

I wish people knew how to think.

Shaun @ Tru6 12-06-2018 09:19 AM

This is why we are totally ****ed.


Washington Examiner: Trump shrugs off future debt crisis: ‘I won’t be here’



One more time for the folks in the cheap seats:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10273411)
I used to be the business manager of a composite fabrication company that did a lot of DoD work. My job was to bill the military for all of the projects we were working on, one of which was the Stealth bomber. When I took Managerial Accounting at Harvard, the professor told a story on the first day. A product manager in a cereal company reduced the size of the box and reduced the quality of the ingredients. His P&L was fantastic in the next quarter and he was promoted to VP. New product manager's numbers were horrible the next quarter and he was let go. New PM and next quarter was bad too.

Company did some research and found that customers had abandoned the lower quality and smaller package size cereal. The changes were great in the short term, just ask the new VP, but were completely unsustainable.

That's the corporate tax cut.

That's Trump's plan for the national debt.

tabs 12-06-2018 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10274711)
OK, I will explain it.

401K. Money is automatically deducted from your paycheck. And typically a small amount. The average Joe worker making $50K/year acclimates to only making $45/year. Slow and steady. Lives within his means in regard to the market.

That same worker takes their life savings of $12,300 and buys the latest hot stocks. Those stocks crash, the market crashes, whatever, his $12,300 is temporarily gone. Add in some panic and we are doomed to repeat history.

I wish people knew how to think.

Most individuals are not directly invested in the market...but through various 401K, Mutual Funds, Annunities and Pensions..

Pensions including Public Employees funds...they need an 8% roi to keep from cannibalizing themselves..

As repeated ad nauseum Equities have been the only game in town for going on a decade now, hence FED accommodation that has cleared the path.

Main Street Joe is oblivious to what is going on and will most likely only notice his quarterly statement being down...??? The guys who are really fretting right now are the Institutional guyz, the big players...

When I speak I have the Institutional Investors...Players in mind... I could care less about main street joe, who is less knowledgeable than a monkey swinging by his tail in a zoo..

On this whole Board over the years there are maybe???? one or two of yu who have a fking clue...and or that does not have some prejudice that skews their thinking and thus makes them clueless. That doesn't mean you are not making a lot of money on the wave..you just don't know why..it might as well be all voodoo to you.

It all comes down to what do the guyz in the institutions feel about the numbers that they are seeing...how do they feel about T blabing, or election results or some Chinese guy getting arrested, or a coupla planes running in the WTC, or FED actions and comments....

You understand what that herd (there is a collective sentiment) is thinking and feeling and you know what is going to happen..it is predictable.

Trick is how do you read or gauge what they are thinking and feeling.

In late June I raised a RED FLAG warning..that was the herds sentiment...look at Equity action since then..

Now they are downright skittish...nervous...willing to unload their positions into any rally...They are afraid of a sword falling which will kill them all..a market crash..

Bottom line is that the FED guarntee to support the economy if it falters with an accommodating policy is uncertain and that makes Equities more risky. So they have become real skittish and will run at the drop of a hat...cause they do not wana get caught...

I am getting a lot of mixed messages here..which adds up to a confusion as to what is going on.

KFC911 12-06-2018 10:47 AM

Interesting times indeed. Lots of elderly folks living on SS, and most youngsters under 30-35, I doubt many are in equities...and not for much imo.

Sooner or later 12-06-2018 11:07 AM

Ltttle confusion.

You believe that Armageddon is near and inevitable

Others disagree.

cabmandone 12-06-2018 11:22 AM

I believe we need to get rid of computer trading. This **** is getting nuts. The market the other day went up based on nothing solid and is now dropping based on nothing solid. Computer sees "trade war" or "tariff" or sees the word "recession" and it triggers a selloff. OH GOD! The yield curve on the two year and five year is inverted! Run for you life!! Some Chinese CFA got tossed in the slammer! Run for you life.

tabs 12-06-2018 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 10274894)
Ltttle confusion.

You believe that Armageddon is near and inevitable

Others disagree.

Boy that is hysterical word for you to use...inevitable yes.. I thought that in March of 1980 and it certainly has been moving in that direction since.

Disagree all u like, it doesn't matter.

KFC911 12-06-2018 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10274922)
I believe we need to get rid of computer trading. This **** is getting nuts. The market the other day went up based on nothing solid and is now dropping based on nothing solid. Computer sees "trade war" or "tariff" or sees the word "recession" and it triggers a selloff. OH GOD! The yield curve on the two year and five year is inverted! Run for you life!! Some Chinese CFA got tossed in the slammer! Run for you life.

Really :)?

Sooner or later 12-06-2018 11:43 AM

Armageddon seems appropriate. You constantly rant about the inevitable destruction of world economics. Crashes, riots , and loss of government control.

I don’t lknow what else to call your scenerio.

wdfifteen 12-06-2018 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC911 (Post 10274865)
Interesting times indeed. Lots of elderly folks living on SS, and most youngsters under 30-35, I doubt many are in equities...and not for much imo.

At age 67 I figured the equities run up was about over and started getting out of the market. At this stage in life I need stability and preservation more than I need growth. I’m down to about 25% equities now, 18 months later. I don’t want to be in the market when geezers like me start retiring, cashing in their 401s, and buying Harley’s and Winnebagos en mass. I’m actively buying land now - God ain’t gonna make any more and I’m keeping my eyes out and buying it right. It isn’t going anywhere.

Captain Ahab Jr 12-06-2018 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs (Post 10274928)
Boy that is hysterical word for you to use...inevitable yes.. I thought that in March of 1980 and it certainly has been moving in that direction since.

1980, that's like nearly 40 yrs of telling people 'I told you so'.......:D

Over that amount of time the ozone layer had a hole and repaired itself, old islands have disappeared and new islands have appeared.

Tabs can you please narrow down your prediction to the nearest ice age as I'm starting to get a little worried I'm not sufficiently prepared for your Armageddon


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