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-   -   Dow Surges 400 Points (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1014202-dow-surges-400-points.html)

KFC911 12-06-2018 01:35 PM

In March of '80....I was in Ft. Lauderdale, spring break... wasn't paying much attention back then either ;)

I now have the same exposure as way back when....and life's been good to me so far...

I suspect many of us old farts have reduced their equity positions too...permamently.

sammyg2 12-06-2018 01:58 PM

Wild ride today. Down as much as 800 points at one time, and got back all but 80 by close.
I'll be in the stands eating popcorn until this gets under control.

Day's Range 24,242.22 - 24,951.01

wdfifteen 12-06-2018 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10274922)
I believe we need to get rid of computer trading. This **** is getting nuts. The market the other day went up based on nothing solid and is now dropping based on nothing solid. Computer sees "trade war" or "tariff" or sees the word "recession" and it triggers a selloff. OH GOD! The yield curve on the two year and five year is inverted! Run for you life!! Some Chinese CFA got tossed in the slammer! Run for you life.

The emotional/fear responses you cite are the opposite of data driven computer trading. The computer doesn’t see ‘trade war” or “recession,” it sees numbers.

KFC911 12-07-2018 02:16 AM

Speaking of numbers...equities are STILL over valued...artificially juiced imo, with no other viable option for a long time. They were the day T was elected, but"emotion" and more juice was in play and up they went. Now reality sits in....when the FED rates get back to "normal" and all this tariff bs wanes...I'll think about getting back in...mebbe???

Meanwhile...a 4% return on "safe", short duration CDs & Corp bonds is where I'll be parked...I sleep well and will check on things a year from now...gonna be chaotic for some.

Good luck everyone...

KFC911 12-07-2018 03:39 AM

I just glanced at the current Treas. yields on Fidelity...holy moly....I'm going ice fishin' ;)

They can't be right...???

cabmandone 12-07-2018 03:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 10275287)
The emotional/fear responses you cite are the opposite of data driven computer trading. The computer doesn’t see ‘trade war” or “recession,” it sees numbers.

I'm not sure that's accurate. As I understand it from reading a bit about it, the algorithm keys on certain things that can potentially cause a decline in the market. If it then sees the market start to slide, it begins to sell.
As I understand it, an algorithm can actually be created to read news headlines, determine the likelihood of of a market fluctuation and within milliseconds of the market fluctuation start selling based on what it sees. The computer is actually reacting to certain keywords in a given cycle that might indicate a drop or increase in the market.

KFC911 12-07-2018 03:42 AM

Serious question....Is China behind this? They sure hold enough to do so....in theory.

cabmandone 12-07-2018 03:50 AM

I suppose it's possible but I'm not sure how it would help them much since our markets and theirs are fluctuating from what I have read.

Sooner or later 12-07-2018 03:50 AM

Why would they want to hurt the economy of their #1 customer?

cabmandone 12-07-2018 03:53 AM

Because we're hurting theirs.

Sooner or later 12-07-2018 03:56 AM

Employment numbers and non farm payroll out at 830 eastern this morning

KFC911 12-07-2018 03:57 AM

Someone look at the current yields....tell me wtf is going on? What am I missing?

Sooner or later 12-07-2018 03:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10275635)
Because we're hurting theirs.

If that is the case they should follow the rules.

wdfifteen 12-07-2018 04:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10275627)
I'm not sure that's accurate. As I understand it from reading a bit about it, the algorithm keys on certain things that can potentially cause a decline in the market. If it then sees the market start to slide, it begins to sell.
As I understand it, an algorithm can actually be created to read news headlines, determine the likelihood of of a market fluctuation and within milliseconds of the market fluctuation start selling based on what it sees. The computer is actually reacting to certain keywords in a given cycle that might indicate a drop or increase in the market.

I guess this wouldn’t surprise me. We have computers writing news stories, why not have computers reading them?

Sooner or later 12-07-2018 04:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC911 (Post 10275637)
Someone look at the current yields....tell me wtf is going on? What am I missing?

Supposed concerns over a slowing economy and trade comflict. People dumping stocks and moving to less risky government bonds.

KFC911 12-07-2018 04:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 10275642)
Supposed concerns over a slowing economy and trade comflict. People dumping stocks and moving to less risky government bonds.

They were somewhat flat yesterday at the close...now... I have NEVER seen this....crazy :(?

Shaun @ Tru6 12-07-2018 04:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 10275641)
I guess this wouldn’t surprise me. We have computers writing news stories, why not have computers reading them?

Computers only do what we, humans, tell them to do. Nothing more. Except for Arnold of course.

A computer algorithm is nothing more than Steve getting a newsflash on his phone, reading it and yelling over to Al, hey Al, looks like Ren Zhengfei just got arrested. This will impact the US-China trade war, we'll have more uncertainty for quite some time, everything is worth less now.

Those damn humans, what will they think of next.

KFC911 12-07-2018 04:11 AM

Nevermind....don't know what was going on, but the Fidelity stuff seems "normal" now...it did NOT compute :)

Shaun @ Tru6 12-07-2018 04:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10274922)
I believe we need to get rid of computer trading. This **** is getting nuts. The market the other day went up based on nothing solid and is now dropping based on nothing solid. Computer sees "trade war" or "tariff" or sees the word "recession" and it triggers a selloff. OH GOD! The yield curve on the two year and five year is inverted! Run for you life!! Some Chinese CFA got tossed in the slammer! Run for you life.

This is funny! Thanks for the morning chuckle.SmileWavy

KFC911 12-07-2018 04:14 AM

Some of y'all seem to know a bit about computers...that is all ;)

Sooner or later 12-07-2018 04:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC911 (Post 10275648)
They were somewhat flat yesterday at the close...now... I have NEVER seen this....crazy :(?

The announcements at 830 will either sooth the nerves or create chaos.

I don’t follow is as closely any more. At 65 I am mostly on the sideline.

Shaun @ Tru6 12-07-2018 04:19 AM

When I was a programmer many years ago at a little boutique firm in NYC, on the very cusp of computer trading, the NYSE wanted us to write their system. Owner of the company was this very nice, brilliant, but mousy nerd. Something spooked him during one meeting (I was not there) and he declined the job. He was visibly flustered that day. Always wanted to know what happened.

KFC911 12-07-2018 04:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 10275668)
The announcements at 830 will either sooth the nerves or create chaos.

I don’t follow is as closely any more. At 65 I am mostly on the sideline.

I'm outta here....ice is thawin' ;)

I just happened to glance at the yields on Fidelity....if true...today would have been epic.

I still wonder about China manipulating the US Treas. market....'cause they could....imo.

cabmandone 12-07-2018 04:23 AM

I really only follow it to try and see potential trouble on the horizon for my sales. I have to keep an eye on everything that might affect my sales. Personally I invest my money where I know I'll get a good return, in inventory for me to sell. I put some away in IRA's but have been working towards self funding my inventory and hope to get there in the next few years. I get to that point, and I have life by the ass.

Sooner or later 12-07-2018 04:34 AM

155,000 jobs. A little on the low side.

widebody911 12-07-2018 07:07 AM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading

tabs 12-07-2018 09:36 AM

Well...this is the way Equities woulda bin if the FED didn't step in, in September of 2012...

So you have enjoyed a nice 6 year ride...

This will equate to Main Street before very long.

tabs 12-07-2018 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC911 (Post 10275676)
I'm outta here....ice is thawin' ;)

I just happened to glance at the yields on Fidelity....if true...today would have been epic.

I still wonder about China manipulating the US Treas. market....'cause they could....imo.

Not if the Yield is in decline... the stampede is from Equities into bonds as a flight to safety..

Some think that they have already tried...the FED used proxy buyers to buy up what they were dumping to keep interest rates stable.

tabs 12-07-2018 09:50 AM

It maybe necessary for the FED to make a statement that they will do what it takes to insure the economy does not fall off a cliff. Put rate hikes on hold or even lower rates again if necessary.

This instability in Equities is a reflection of the chaos in the economy and political realm. Nobody can afford this...and the danger is that it will all get out of hand...and if it does whoops there goes your nice day.

Even if on the sidelines you are being effected and it is only a big dummy who thinks that they may not be....

KFC911 12-07-2018 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs (Post 10276130)
Not if the Yield is in decline... the stampede is from Equities into bonds as a flight to safety..

Some think that they have already tried...the FED used proxy buyers to buy up what they were dumping to keep interest rates stable.

The "current yields" from 3 mo > 5 yrs were wonky-donkey on my screen for about 20 min this morning as I was posting....looked like the slope of todays equity curve....I knew it couldn't be correct....I hoped ;)

Interesting....the last part. I assumed they might....

widebody911 12-10-2018 07:31 AM

Look like we have another "surge" today.

cabmandone 12-12-2018 05:52 AM

According to an article I just read, the DOW is up 300 at the open on "hopes" of a deal between the US and China.. Not sure exactly what is bolstering their hopes.

KFC911 12-12-2018 06:11 AM

^^^ The release of the exec in Canada.

I've been shoveling freakin' big azz boulders of frozen crap....so I still ain't none too happy with 'em though ;)

cabmandone 12-12-2018 06:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC911 (Post 10281519)
^^^ The release of the exec in Canada.

I've been shoveling freakin' big azz boulders of frozen crap....so I still ain't none too happy with 'em though ;)

You know you can buy these things that have augers and gas engines that make the job easier right? I have two if you want to come over and grab one :D

tabs 12-12-2018 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by widebody911 (Post 10279214)
Look like we have another "surge" today.

I was happy about that Surge..but that surge turned out to be a DOWN 0.94. Today another surge...we are due for a rally..probably because of oversold conditions..might push back to the 2800 level? It would have to break the high of the last rally to be meaningful. otherwise...

KFC911 12-12-2018 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10281535)
You know you can buy these things that have augers and gas engines that make the job easier right? I have two if you want to come over and grab one :D

Next time I need one (every 30 years or so)....I'll be knocking on yer door :). We got a foot of snow, then ice, then my street was plowed for the first time ever....freakin' ice boulders :(

I don't even have a snow shovel....

We are southerners....and don't know doodly-squat about snow...but my street would be fine by now if some azzhole hadn't plowed it and made a huge mess.

That's how we roll here....wait 'til the sun melts it.....I credit Al Gore :)

cabmandone 12-14-2018 06:14 AM

DOW down 200 on global concernshttp://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1544800488.jpg

KFC911 12-14-2018 06:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10283956)

Just tuck & monkey roll....it's not going away anytime soon.

tabs 12-14-2018 06:48 AM

Well I was just going to comment that you Boyz 401k results are going to be in shreads come the end of the qtr. That ought to get yer attention. Nothing like feeling a little pain to sharpen your wits up from complacency. But ya already beat me to the sentiment.

Sooner or later 12-14-2018 07:07 AM

Mine is doing fine. I have a low exposure to equities since I am retired.

I balance my holdings every quarter so I have been taking profits during the run up. Trying to time the market is most difficult.


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