Dow Surges 400 Points

[sammyg2]

Every average Joe with a 401k is in the stock market.

When the gubmint subsidized saving and investing by making it tax-deferred, that forced lots more money into the market which stimulated growth, but also propped up prices.

PE ratios that previously would be considered as horrible became not so bad.
Many short-term positives, but whenever the gubmint manipulates a free market it causes long-term damage.

[sammyg2]

Missed it by that much .....

[Shaun @ Tru6]

oh good lord, yes, I had hoped you would know that that is as common knowledge as the sky is blue.

I meant managing individual stocks.

I'm a macro manager. I always assume people know what I'm talking about if the foundation is obvious.

Panic of 1873.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Market has been artificially up for a few years now. More buyers than sellers. I think it's the Boomers. Be glad the average Joe working on an assembly line isn't in the stock market. First, they would further pump it up, second, they will be crushed and you will have to pay for them for the rest of your life.

Remember the Panic of 1873? That would be a walk in the park compared to what will happen today.

Do the joes have pensions? If they do then their retirements are spiraling down the drain. If they don't you are already paying for them now or are going to in the future with SS etc. SS is terminal..only the when is in doubt?

I thought it was already understood from what I have said that everything preceding the coming events is going to look like a walk in the park.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

See above.

I would hate to be a micro manager and have to spell out every last detail that is obvious.

And I assume people paid attention in history class.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

See above.

I would hate to be a micro manager and have to spell out every last detail that is obvious.

And I assume people paid attention in history class.

Lol

You tell it..tell it like it is..

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

See above.

I would hate to be a micro manager and have to spell out every last detail that is obvious.

And I assume people paid attention in history class.

You were unclear. Most assembly line workers are in the market. Only about 30% of workers have self managed accounts.

Even those 401k accounts allow for easy movement from one sector to another.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

oh good lord, yes, I had hoped you would know that that is as common knowledge as the sky is blue.

I meant managing individual stocks.

I'm a macro manager. I always assume people know what I'm talking about if the foundation is obvious.

Panic of 1873.

You said the sky is red.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

You said the sky is red.

Only an idiot wouldn't realize he was talking about a sunset.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

You were unclear. Most assembly line workers are in the market. Only about 30% of workers have self managed accounts.

Even those 401k accounts allow for easy movement from one sector to another.

OK, I will explain it.

401K. Money is automatically deducted from your paycheck. And typically a small amount. The average Joe worker making $50K/year acclimates to only making $45/year. Slow and steady. Lives within his means in regard to the market.

That same worker takes their life savings of $12,300 and buys the latest hot stocks. Those stocks crash, the market crashes, whatever, his $12,300 is temporarily gone. Add in some panic and we are doomed to repeat history.

I wish people knew how to think.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

This is why we are totally ****ed.


Washington Examiner: Trump shrugs off future debt crisis: ‘I won’t be here’


One more time for the folks in the cheap seats:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

I used to be the business manager of a composite fabrication company that did a lot of DoD work. My job was to bill the military for all of the projects we were working on, one of which was the Stealth bomber. When I took Managerial Accounting at Harvard, the professor told a story on the first day. A product manager in a cereal company reduced the size of the box and reduced the quality of the ingredients. His P&L was fantastic in the next quarter and he was promoted to VP. New product manager's numbers were horrible the next quarter and he was let go. New PM and next quarter was bad too.

Company did some research and found that customers had abandoned the lower quality and smaller package size cereal. The changes were great in the short term, just ask the new VP, but were completely unsustainable.

That's the corporate tax cut.

That's Trump's plan for the national debt.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

OK, I will explain it.

401K. Money is automatically deducted from your paycheck. And typically a small amount. The average Joe worker making $50K/year acclimates to only making $45/year. Slow and steady. Lives within his means in regard to the market.

That same worker takes their life savings of $12,300 and buys the latest hot stocks. Those stocks crash, the market crashes, whatever, his $12,300 is temporarily gone. Add in some panic and we are doomed to repeat history.

I wish people knew how to think.

Most individuals are not directly invested in the market...but through various 401K, Mutual Funds, Annunities and Pensions..

Pensions including Public Employees funds...they need an 8% roi to keep from cannibalizing themselves..

As repeated ad nauseum Equities have been the only game in town for going on a decade now, hence FED accommodation that has cleared the path.

Main Street Joe is oblivious to what is going on and will most likely only notice his quarterly statement being down...??? The guys who are really fretting right now are the Institutional guyz, the big players...

When I speak I have the Institutional Investors...Players in mind... I could care less about main street joe, who is less knowledgeable than a monkey swinging by his tail in a zoo..

On this whole Board over the years there are maybe???? one or two of yu who have a fking clue...and or that does not have some prejudice that skews their thinking and thus makes them clueless. That doesn't mean you are not making a lot of money on the wave..you just don't know why..it might as well be all voodoo to you.

It all comes down to what do the guyz in the institutions feel about the numbers that they are seeing...how do they feel about T blabing, or election results or some Chinese guy getting arrested, or a coupla planes running in the WTC, or FED actions and comments....

You understand what that herd (there is a collective sentiment) is thinking and feeling and you know what is going to happen..it is predictable.

Trick is how do you read or gauge what they are thinking and feeling.

In late June I raised a RED FLAG warning..that was the herds sentiment...look at Equity action since then..

Now they are downright skittish...nervous...willing to unload their positions into any rally...They are afraid of a sword falling which will kill them all..a market crash..

Bottom line is that the FED guarntee to support the economy if it falters with an accommodating policy is uncertain and that makes Equities more risky. So they have become real skittish and will run at the drop of a hat...cause they do not wana get caught...

I am getting a lot of mixed messages here..which adds up to a confusion as to what is going on.

[KFC911]

Interesting times indeed. Lots of elderly folks living on SS, and most youngsters under 30-35, I doubt many are in equities...and not for much imo.

[Sooner or later]

Ltttle confusion.

You believe that Armageddon is near and inevitable

Others disagree.

[cabmandone]

I believe we need to get rid of computer trading. This **** is getting nuts. The market the other day went up based on nothing solid and is now dropping based on nothing solid. Computer sees "trade war" or "tariff" or sees the word "recession" and it triggers a selloff. OH GOD! The yield curve on the two year and five year is inverted! Run for you life!! Some Chinese CFA got tossed in the slammer! Run for you life.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Ltttle confusion.

You believe that Armageddon is near and inevitable

Others disagree.

Boy that is hysterical word for you to use...inevitable yes.. I thought that in March of 1980 and it certainly has been moving in that direction since.

Disagree all u like, it doesn't matter.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I believe we need to get rid of computer trading. This **** is getting nuts. The market the other day went up based on nothing solid and is now dropping based on nothing solid. Computer sees "trade war" or "tariff" or sees the word "recession" and it triggers a selloff. OH GOD! The yield curve on the two year and five year is inverted! Run for you life!! Some Chinese CFA got tossed in the slammer! Run for you life.

Really ?

[Sooner or later]

Armageddon seems appropriate. You constantly rant about the inevitable destruction of world economics. Crashes, riots , and loss of government control.

I don’t lknow what else to call your scenerio.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by KC911

Interesting times indeed. Lots of elderly folks living on SS, and most youngsters under 30-35, I doubt many are in equities...and not for much imo.

At age 67 I figured the equities run up was about over and started getting out of the market. At this stage in life I need stability and preservation more than I need growth. I’m down to about 25% equities now, 18 months later. I don’t want to be in the market when geezers like me start retiring, cashing in their 401s, and buying Harley’s and Winnebagos en mass. I’m actively buying land now - God ain’t gonna make any more and I’m keeping my eyes out and buying it right. It isn’t going anywhere.

[Captain Ahab Jr]

Originally Posted by tabs

Boy that is hysterical word for you to use...inevitable yes.. I thought that in March of 1980 and it certainly has been moving in that direction since.

1980, that's like nearly 40 yrs of telling people 'I told you so'.......

Over that amount of time the ozone layer had a hole and repaired itself, old islands have disappeared and new islands have appeared.

Tabs can you please narrow down your prediction to the nearest ice age as I'm starting to get a little worried I'm not sufficiently prepared for your Armageddon