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Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Cambridge, MA
Posts: 44,304
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Who will make money on the trade war, and how?
Anyone doing anything specific about the trade war? I have a message into my friend in Shanghai to get his thoughts.
Someone has to be cleaning up on this. Who and how?
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Tru6 Restoration & Design |
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05-13-2019, 09:28 AM
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Location: bottom left corner of the world
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05-13-2019, 10:36 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Lake Oswego, OR
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Great question. With this brain trust, someone will know.
Maybe all the European / Aussie / Asian economies? |
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05-13-2019, 12:55 PM
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Get off my lawn!
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The US government. Millions in taxes.
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Glen 49 Year member of the Porsche Club of America 1985 911 Carrera; 2017 Macan 1986 El Camino with Fuel Injected 350 Crate Engine My Motto: I will never be too old to have a happy childhood! |
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05-13-2019, 01:00 PM
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G'day!
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Not concerned about it - bigger fish to fry at the moment....
It will sort itself out as always anyway.
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Old dog....new tricks..... |
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05-13-2019, 01:16 PM
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(the shotguns)
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 21,594
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my seafood importing client is not happy about it. they are passing entire cost on as expected.
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***************************************** Well i had #6 adjusted perfectly but then just before i tightened it a butterfly in Zimbabwe farted and now i have to start all over again! I believe we all make mistakes but I will not validate your poor choices and/or perversions and subsidize the results your actions. |
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05-13-2019, 01:33 PM
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I think some of the easy to move commodities like textiles that haven't already left China, will leave. The high tech stuff would be harder to move. I'm not a fan of the trade war but something drastic needs to be done to get China to do what they've said they're going to do especially intellectual property protections.
What many fail to realize is that most of the profit on a product is made on front end in the design phase and on back end on marketing and retail. The least profit is made in the middle in manufacturing so that's why we farm it out to other countries like China. This is known as the smile curve.
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2014 Cayman S (track rat w/GT4 suspension) 1979 930 (475 rwhp at 0.95 bar) |
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05-13-2019, 01:52 PM
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As usual it all depends on your risk tolerance and timeline. Some will short the companies who stand to lose the most, some will make a currency play, some will make a bond play. The right move with a little luck could work here. High risk, but some traders will hit big in the short term.
What would Warren Buffett do? He looks at great companies who will likely be unaffected by the trade war getting their stock price beaten down today far into bargain territory. He waits for the emotional avalanche to lose momentum and buys these companies at a 10-20% discount. Very low risk with a strong return over time. Pick your poison.
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05-13-2019, 01:54 PM
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Location: Fresno, CA
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Maybe we should raise our minimum wage to $20/hr so that the poor people here can better afford all the products made in China.
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05-13-2019, 01:56 PM
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Location: Okayama, Japan
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Japanese govt has been slowly raising sales tax incrementally to 10 percent. I have a feeling they’ll delay the change from 8 percent until after the Olympics.
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05-13-2019, 02:10 PM
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Functionista
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: CO
Posts: 7,717
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The US of course. But it will be awhile. China is part of the global manufacturing mainstream now. They will need to play fair to get along. I see their folks rioting long before ours...
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Jeff 74 911, #3 I do not disbelieve in anything. I start from the premise that everything is true until proved false. Everything is possible. |
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05-13-2019, 02:15 PM
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Registered ConfUser
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Location: Waterlogged
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Mike “I wouldn’t want to live under the conditions a person could get used to”. -My paternal grandmother having immigrated to America shortly before WWll. |
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05-13-2019, 02:29 PM
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Leadfoot Geezer
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05-13-2019, 02:37 PM
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Misunderstood User
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I work for a Tier 1 auto supplier and I have seen the fallout from higher tariffs. Steel and aluminum prices are higher as well purchased parts from China. It is very difficult to pass on price hikes because OE contracts are set. The aftermarket business has more flexibility but the aftermarket business is off. Raising prices with a smaller market is a bad mix.
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Jim 1983 944n/a 2003 Mercedes CLK 500 - totaled. Sanwiched on the Kennedy Expressway |
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05-13-2019, 02:38 PM
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Band.
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Denver, CO
Posts: 13,320
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there was a yuuuge dip in the market about 6 months ago.
It was "trade war!" remember?
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1983 SC Coupe 1963 BMW R60/2 1972 Triumph Tiger 1995 Triumph Daytona SuperIII |
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05-13-2019, 03:40 PM
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Registered ConfUser
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Mike “I wouldn’t want to live under the conditions a person could get used to”. -My paternal grandmother having immigrated to America shortly before WWll. |
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05-13-2019, 03:58 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
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Copyright "Some Observer" |
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05-13-2019, 04:37 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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SP500...2800 is a key level to close on...break that support and the tide will continue to go out... Hmmm now why did Buffet build a cash position?
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Copyright "Some Observer" Last edited by tabs; 05-13-2019 at 04:55 PM.. |
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05-13-2019, 04:40 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
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Quote:
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Copyright "Some Observer" |
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05-13-2019, 04:42 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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I do not trust anything coming out of Wall Street nor DC...they have lost it and are not rational...
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Copyright "Some Observer" |
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05-13-2019, 04:45 PM
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Carrera
1964 Porsche 356 C Sunroof coupe
1972 Porsche 914 2.0 fuel injected
1983 Porsche 911 SC Targa
Work vehicle
1979 Porsche 930 3.4
Lil Red
Cayman
