Can we still talk about the FED....

[KFC911]

...without it getting....you know ? We have some already....nuthin' too "you know".... I enjoy the discussions....

What say ye?

[javadog]

No.

[KFC911]

Fair enough....

Back to my dawg....she's got TDS and a potty mouth too....Toilet DS

Thread over....I know where to go

[island911]

Why so afraid of PARF?

Clearly you want to discuss some political issues.

Is it because there is no relying on clique over there?

[pwd72s]

The Fed does what it does. The market does what it does. End of story. Or Beginning, depending on your viewpoint.

[EdwinB]

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ’s prepared remarks suggest he is comfortable with market pricing of an interest rate cut at the end of July. This was an opportunity to push back against those expectations if he wanted to, and he did just the opposite.

He noted that the FOMC had committed to closely monitor and youtube channel about FED data and “act as appropriate’’ to sustain the expansion, adding that many participants believed the case for accommodation had increased. He went further by saying that “since then,’’ based on data, “it appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook.’’

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by island911

Why so afraid of PARF?

Clearly you want to discuss some political issues.

Is it because there is no relying on clique over there?

Not worth the visit . We've had several....been totally "non-you know", with some folks offering opinions I like to read....and they don't venture into that other forum...at all. Most don't....

I have a "clique"... LOL...who knew ?


I don't wanna face "you know" by myself.....Ima skeered!

And I'd be the lone fiscal conservative too!

[Por_sha911]

Que Tabs predicting doom.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Por_sha911

Que Tabs predicting doom.

The Soothsayer said to Caesar on the way to the Senate, ,"Beware of the Ides of March." Caesar replied, " The Ides of March are here and nothing has happened?" The Soothsayer then said, "But the Ides of March are not yet gone."

[tabs]

Originally Posted by tabs View Post
On 7/3/19 The sp closed at 2995. An all time high. It will push over the magic 3000 intraday but the key will be to close over that number. Then to build a basis of support staying around that number.


Today 7/10/19 the SP broke 3000 for the first time reaching 3002.98 before falling back below 3000....

Equities Are Up

[RWebb]

weak growth this week

[tabs]

You would think that the FED signaling a rate cut is bad news for Equities as it reflects the FED view is of a slowing economy. Yet the opposite is true, Equities run like a scalded dog upward...Bad economic news when the FED is in an "activist" mode sends Equities wildly upwards. When the FED is in a "neutral" mode bad news tanks Equities...Hmmmm

Equities view the FEDs active participation in the economy as being necessary. Which means that Equities have a negative view of the underlying economies sustainability. It needs Monetary support. Without it the economy begins to tank. Therefore the economy is on life support and is artificially being kept inflated. That means that any real growth in the economy is NOT REAL...but FAKE..

You do have some growth that is attributable to population growth and their need to live their lives. That comes in at roughly 1.6% to 1.8%. It is notable that Inflation is running at those numbers.

The FED wants 2% inflation to keep the growth of debt at bay...it Deflates the true value of the debt by that 2% per year..In other words a 2% free lunch...paid for by the Bond holders...China included..

When that 2% is not reached the Debtor is paying the full freight and in a Deflationary cycle that debt grows even more heavily as the true value of the currency increases (it buys more)
..unless of course there is a lot of printing of new money going on...which tends to drive inflation up...

What is interesting is that in the past 10 years in spite of MASSIVE PRINTING REGIMES by the worlds Central Banks inflation is running at the rate of population growth..they are barely able to keep inflation at that level with all of those massive printing regimes..Hmmmm something is wrong here????

Without those printing regimes and low interest rate polices you are faced with massive deflation and contraction of the Global economy. The reason is simple the Consumer is tapped out and can not afford to keep on buying stuff....

What happens to the economy when the Central Banks and Governments reach the extremis of their ability to keep juicing the system is a matter of conjecture. The Central Banks and Governments seem to fear the outcome of not juicing the system as they continually juice the system to keep it afloat..even to their known long term detriment.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by tabs

You would think that the FED signaling a rate cut is bad news for Equities as it reflects the FED view is of a slowing economy. Yet the opposite is true, Equities run like a scalded dog upward...Bad economic news when the FED is in an "activist" mode sends Equities wildly upwards. When the FED is in a "neutral" mode bad news tanks Equities...Hmmmm

Equities view the FEDs active participation in the economy as being necessary. Which means that Equities have a negative view of the underlying economies sustainability. It needs Monetary support. Without it the economy begins to tank. Therefore the economy is on life support and is artificially being kept inflated. That means that any real growth in the economy is NOT REAL...but FAKE..

You do have some growth that is attributable to population growth and their need to live their lives. That comes in at roughly 1.6% to 1.8%. It is notable that Inflation is running at those numbers.

The FED wants 2% inflation to keep the growth of debt at bay...it Deflates the true value of the debt by that 2% per year..In other words a 2% free lunch...paid for by the Bond holders...China included..

When that 2% is not reached the Debtor is paying the full freight and in a Deflationary cycle that debt grows even more heavily as the true value of the currency increases (it buys more)
..unless of course there is a lot of printing of new money going on...which tends to drive inflation up...

What is interesting is that in the past 10 years in spite of MASSIVE PRINTING REGIMES by the worlds Central Banks inflation is running at the rate of population growth..they are barely able to keep inflation at that level with all of those massive printing regimes..Hmmmm something is wrong here????

Without those printing regimes and low interest rate polices you are faced with massive deflation and contraction of the Global economy. The reason is simple the Consumer is tapped out and can not afford to keep on buying stuff....

What happens to the economy when the Central Banks and Governments reach the extremis of their ability to keep juicing the system is a matter of conjecture. The Central Banks and Governments seem to fear that outcome as they keep on juicing the system to keep it afloat..even to their known long term detriment.

The above quote is the stark reality of the situation unencumbered by any wishful thinking, bias, delusion, deceit, stupidity or pettifoggery. It is a clear assessment without any emotional attachments that some may subscribe to it. One may think that those who are dismayed to hear such a clear assessment are themselves living in one form of denial or another and can not handle the truth.

The pettifoggery that goes on over the above and related subjects really reflects the mindless informational level of monkeys chattering at each other in the trees..God help us all you wana Banana?

[Sooner or later]

You should update your population growth numbers. 1.6 to 2.0% was the rate during the Baby Boom era. In a decline ever since. We are currently in the .6 to .7% range. Illegal immigrants have little spending money and add little to inflation.


https://www.multpl.com/us-population-growth-rate

You failed to mention the impact of Internet sales that has changed the brick and mortar store ability to increase prices. B&M margins are held in check due to that competition that didn't exist in the past.which helps hold inflation in check.

Energy prices have been in decline/stable since 2012. No current inflation in this sector.

Higher oversll tax rates (state/local/fed) cause lower discretionary spending which also weakens inflation pressure.

It is not surprising that inflation is low. Current interest rates are not "juicing", they are actually normal.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

You should update your population growth numbers. 1.6 to 2.0% was the rate during the Baby Boom era. In a decline ever since. We are currently in the .6 to .7% range. Illegal immigrants have little spending money and add little to inflation.


https://www.multpl.com/us-population-growth-rate

You failed to mention the impact of Internet sales that has changed the brick and mortar store ability to increase prices. B&M margins are held in check due to that competition that didn't exist in the past.which helps hold inflation in check.

Energy prices have been in decline/stable since 2012. No current inflation in this sector.

Higher oversll tax rates (state/local/fed) cause lower discretionary spending which also weakens inflation pressure.

It is not surprising that inflation is low. Current interest rates are not "juicing", they are actually normal.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01USM156N?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=categories

Interest rates remain long term SUBNORMAL in spite of carrying ever heavier debt loads.

Energy prices remain lower due to plentiful supply and lower DEMAND

Taxes are higher because the governement needs funding to pay for spending

The differential from B&M to Internet sales costs is complex but in the end is a rather negligible factor overall. Costs are costs and exactly what percentage of the economy is internet driven...

The facts remain that the American MC consumers wages have been stagnant since 1975, savings are nil, and debt loads have increased...this has suppressed demand. Thus while supply of goods is plentiful demand has remained anemic.. Either through government employment or entitlements the government subsidizes the economy to keep demand up with fiscal policy and the FED facilitates that policy through their monetary policy.

The trend since 1975 has been a displacement of the America worker to lower paying jobs as global wage and technology competition has increased. this trend will continue and as such the prosperous American MC lifestyle will become ever harder to maintain. As it becomes ever harder to maintain, social and political pressures will increase.

[Sooner or later]

Bond traders and holders are concerned about a recession. Not surprising since the current expansion is long in the tooth.

Nothing abnormal about a recession.

I am also concerned about debt load.

[RWebb]

which debt?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Bond traders and holders are concerned about a recession. Not surprising since the current expansion is long in the tooth.

Nothing abnormal about a recession.

I am also concerned about debt load.

You really do not want to see the cause of and effect that 2008 had on the system and what it meant...your thinking is that everything being equal 2008 was just another blip on the screen of normal.

The disaster of 2008 was the blow up of the last bastion of Consumer credit, the RE market in 2006 represented about 16% of the US economy. The disaster was largely reflected in the banks who were holding that RE paper and were running a ponzi scheme based upon that paper...

That 2008 credit blow up was a long time coming in that the US started a credit regime in the 1980's to offset the effects of stagnant wages and lower paying jobs all to maintain the illusion of a prosperous MC lifestyle.

What 2008 meant was a sea change, in that America has become a waning light in the world..the Illusion of prosperity went bust and the Chinese were among the first to realize it. The effect is that almost all Americans are in denial and do not want to face reality. thinking being just one more tweek of the system will MAGA. However it is becoming harder and harder to maintain that fantasy with ever more radical solutions being presented to return the system to equinamity.

The government and Central banks to keep the lights on and maintain civil order juice the system. In the end the system is a facade of what it used to be...and Americans are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet in the maintaining that illusion of prosperity.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by RWebb

which debt?

Gov. It actually dropped a tiny bit this last quarter 104.59 as a % of gdp. Down from 105.something.

Consumer debt is high but has been down. Corp still too high.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by tabs

You really do not want to see the cause of and effect that 2008 had on the system and what it meant...your thinking is that everything being equal 2008 was just another blip on the screen of normal.

The disaster of 2008 was the blow up of the last bastion of Consumer credit, the RE market in 2006 represented about 16% of the US economy. The disaster was largely reflected in the banks who were holding that RE paper and were running a ponzi scheme based upon that paper...

That 2008 credit blow up was a long time coming in that the US started a credit regime in the 1980's to offset the effects of stagnant wages and lower paying jobs all to maintain the illusion of a prosperous MC lifestyle.

What 2008 meant was a sea change, in that America has become a waning light in the world..the Illusion of prosperity went bust and the Chinese were among the first to realize it. The effect is that almost all Americans are in denial and do not want to face reality. thinking being just one more tweek of the system will MAGA. However it is becoming harder and harder to maintain that fantasy with ever more radical solutions being presented to return the system to equinamity.

The government and Central banks to keep the lights on and maintain civil order juice the system. In the end the system is a facade of what it used to be...and Americans are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet in the maintaining that illusion of prosperity.

When one of your key points was population growth and you were wrong about the number it tends to hurt your credibility.