When will COVID price premiums end?

[LWJ]

Hello,

As you have most all seen, fun distractions have increased significantly in cost during COVID.

For example - I sold an ancient mountain bike for over 2x what I purchased it. I sold a dirtbike for 35% over recent purchase price. I sold a guitar in 30 minutes at 25% over what I purchased it. And the examples go on.

But, I am wanting to buy a used 2 stroke dirt bike in 200 - 300 cc. This is not something I need. It is simply a toy. If I am to avoid the COVID price premium, when will prices come down on used stuff?

The flip side of this question is - how long of a window do I have to blow out my garage of old junk and get over paid?

TIA!

[ted]

I say in a year the spending spree or monopoly money will dissipate.
When interest rates go up and the stock market drops a little things will return to normal.
I read lumber prices have dropped a bit in the last couple months.
Like many we did catch up on all our house projects during the pandemic.
I'm going to wait to make any big purchases till the end of the year.
Like maybe a new truck camper that today is selling for $5k over value with a waiting list.

[herr_oberst]

Originally Posted by LWJ

If I am to avoid the COVID price premium, when will prices come down on used stuff?

August 17.

[Eric Hahl]

Originally Posted by herr_oberst

August 17.

That there is pretty darn specific Herr Oberst! But, you forgot the year.

[Rot 911]

Truly is an upside down world when it comes to material goods right now. For example, six months ago my 2018 jeep wrangler had a Kelley blue book trade-in value of $24,000. Last night, I thought I would check again and now the Kelley blue book trade-in value is $29,500. Unfortunately, the price of a new Jeep has outpaced the trade in value of my old Jeep.

[herr_oberst]

Originally Posted by Eric Hahl

That there is pretty darn specific Herr Oberst! But, you forgot the year.

Just an estimate.

[Zeke]

When the Great, Great Recession hits. Frankly, it's time.

[Fast Freddy 944]

Originally Posted by LWJ

Hello,

As you have most all seen, fun distractions have increased significantly in cost during COVID.

For example - I sold an ancient mountain bike for over 2x what I purchased it. I sold a dirtbike for 35% over recent purchase price. I sold a guitar in 30 minutes at 25% over what I purchased it. And the examples go on.

But, I am wanting to buy a used 2 stroke dirt bike in 200 - 300 cc. This is not something I need. It is simply a toy. If I am to avoid the COVID price premium, when will prices come down on used stuff?

The flip side of this question is - how long of a window do I have to blow out my garage of old junk and get over paid?The madness will end once we have a Trump style president back in office.... Then all will be well...

TIA!

[red-beard]

Tabdula

Tabdula

TABDULA!

[Gogar]

Originally Posted by LWJ

If I am to avoid the COVID price premium, when will prices come down on used stuff?

The answer is 42.

[LWJ]

Hey Fast Freddy 944 - DON'T PARF THIS UP.

And. More importantly, DON'T F'ING EDIT MY QUOTE ME WITH YOUR GODDAM TRUMP ****.

[gchappel]

I was talking to my bike shop manager yesterday.
Right now he can get a custom painted trek frame in roughly 2 weeks. That is frame only.
The entire bike is estimated at about 500days. 1.4 years wait on a bike.
The components, made in asia, are more than a year out.
He can not get chains, cassettes, normal wear items. Luckily he stocked up.
The bike industry is predicting 2 years to get back to normal.
No one is building new production lines or anything, because once they catch up no one can predict which way things will go
Crazy times
gary

[pmax]

We're gonna be at 15% until it stops with a pop at which time buying any toys won't be a priority anyway so doesn't matter.

Good luck everyone.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Eventually that bubble will pop when people can go back to doing the things they want to do vs doing what is available.

[Racerbvd]

Originally Posted by gchappel

I was talking to my bike shop manager yesterday.
Right now he can get a custom painted trek frame in roughly 2 weeks. That is frame only.
The entire bike is estimated at about 500days. 1.4 years wait on a bike.
The components, made in asia, are more than a year out.
He can not get chains, cassettes, normal wear items. Luckily he stocked up.
The bike industry is predicting 2 years to get back to normal.
No one is building new production lines or anything, because once they catch up no one can predict which way things will go
Crazy times
gary

Yep, been a popular topic on the Vintage BMX forums too.
Old and new stuff are selling at premium prices.
Saw this while at a buddy's shop yesterday.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by red-beard

Tabdula

Tabdula

TABDULA!

It is really odd a contradiction in terms...

We are in a huge dflationary spiral which is caused by a tapped out American consumer... equating to low demand and a moribund economy.

Yet we are seeing dislocations in the supply chain which is causing supply chains to become frazzled, shortages to occur and various items to increase in price. Then you have the changing perception of the USD being the Rock of go to Gibraltar currency.. As long as there isn't a viable scale-able currency the USD will remain the flavor of choice. Finally you have global economic and geopolitical stresses leading to an ever greater chaotic environment.

At this point it bears close watching to see how many USD's are leaking back into the system from being hidden in the global mattresses? I suspect that is the undrlying reason for the FED's Reverse Repo window to ratcheting up. Of course the FED isn't going to advertise that fact.


At some point Demand may become so low in the Global Economy of Scale that production falls off, unit cost rises which is then reflected in rising prices... People are then priced out of the market. So demand for used items becasue they are cheaper than new will rise as supply becomes short in those items.

This ^^^^^ statement is Threading The Eye Of The Needle. It is an obverse pov, which is uncommon. It rectifys the deflation vs inflation contradiction

[aigel]

I think this is inflation of tangibles / assets and it is here to stay.

I have sold all my spare bicycles and even flipped a few junkers for good money that were on the curb for free.

I was thinking about selling the 993 and upgrade, but then, have you priced a 993TT or GT car? Have to 'hold' all your assets currently.

G

[onewhippedpuppy]

Tabs with many products I totally disagree. For real estate and large scale recreational products (boats, RVs, motorcycles, ATVs, etc) there have not been noteworthy shortages but there has been unprecedented demand that has dramatically driven up price. Thus far it has shown no signs of slowing. It does beg the question of why however, personally I attribute to people wanting to invest in tangible items due to feelings of uneasiness about the future combined with the desire to enjoy whatever recreation that they can.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Tabs with many products I totally disagree. For real estate and large scale recreational products (boats, RVs, motorcycles, ATVs, etc) there have not been noteworthy shortages but there has been unprecedented demand that has dramatically driven up price. Thus far it has shown no signs of slowing. It does beg the question of why however, personally I attribute to people wanting to invest in tangible items due to feelings of uneasiness about the future combined with the desire to enjoy whatever recreation that they can.

In my town there is a very short supply of homes for sale, and they sell for a premium. As you know the cost of new homes is up because of the cost of lumber increasing .. which is a function of the econ shutdown due to CV. Also lots of people wana get outa Dodge and go Bumfk Egypt (where ever that might be).

Then there is fear of inflation driving consumption and over laying uneasiness about the state of the USD and economy...so they buy tangible items..like spoons..

So I would say it is a mixed bag as to why prices are on the increase..so no single causation. As a generalization unit count down cost goes up per unit..

There is a great deal of instability here...the system has crossed the line where the system is now out of equilibrium.

[onewhippedpuppy]

I would agree it’s a mixed bag. There have been bidding wars for houses in Wichita despite demand that is stagnant at best, that never happens and tells me that people are looking for places to hide cash and/or disposable income.