It was really more than 45. Oklahoma was one of the 5 but we still had heavy conditions. My town, Lawton, Ok had some of the most severe restrictions in the country.

100 customers max in a Walmart which was far less than the Walmart Corp restriction. . Most of Walmart general merchandise shut down. Mall shut down. Clothing stores, barbers, etc shut down. A curfew. Parks, lakes, camping shut down.

A lot of our restrictions being lifted Friday,

True.
I think every state put measures in place to “flatten the curve” with the purpose of avoiding overwhelming their hospitals.
We are where we are.
But what is fascinating now, and still of huge consequence, is where each state goes from here.
Compared to the relative uniformity in the shutdowns, there appear to be huge variances in the reopenings.

Truth!

How anybody can’t see Paycheck Protection being a feverish act of total desperation is beyond me. Even worse is that apparently there will be more. Its too late to stop. They’re throwing up their hands and crying uncle, here’s a check, spend it wisely until we send you another one.

Insanity.

This is the opening guidance for my town. Friday

https://www.lawtonok.gov/publications/may-1-reopening-documents

Well..."they're" calling it a huge success because the $ disappeared so fast....in$anity indeed :(.

They need to "fry" the multi-million $ mother-takers....but naw....

Very interesting, thanks.
That seems reasonable to me in light of all current information and knowledge, and good news for the citizens of your town.
Unfortunately many states are nothing like that, and have declared the shutdown to be indefinite with no real guidance like your town has done.

This is the crux of your post, and man, for all of America I wish it was accurate.

Unfortunately it is not even close.

The Swedish 3.2% hit on GDP is probably right.

But there's no way in the world the US number can be right, sadly.

The US 1st quarter GDP numbers just came out, and were worse than expected. US GDP shrunk by 4.8%.

Now, sounds “not so bad?”

But one must remember that 4.8% number is only for the first quarter, and the first quarter ended in March (January to March). The shutdowns didn’t start until the END of March.

The next quarter will be the first to reflect the shutdown economy. Estimates vary, but all agree it is going to be a bloodbath. Goldman Sachs estimates a 34% (thirty four, not three point four!) percent drop in 2Q GDP. That’s worse than the worst quarters of the Depression.

Nobody with any credibility could possibly claim US 2020 GDP will only be off 5%. Simply impossible.

MC:
If things are as dour as you say they are, why is the DOW riding so high rather than dropping like a rock?

That’s a good question. I don’t think anyone really knows the answer.
But I’d guess a lot is because money has to go somewhere, and there seems to be a lot of thinking that the government is going to do *anything* to keep the stock market propped up. No matter how artificial it is, for example, even by changing the rules and having the Fed buy equities.
And also, what the stock market is today is no reflection on what it’ll be 30, 60 90 days from now. As the cost and pain caused by what we’ve done starts to work it’s way through our society and economy, we’ll see what happens.
But I’m a real estate investor. I have some stocks but not a huge amount. I don’t find the stock market to be terribly rational so I’m not all that comfortable having my financial future ride on it. So I don’t follow it that closely.

You only have to look at who, and how many, in the US is not working and their annual pay and who in the US is working and their annual salary to make predictions about the future of the economy.

Your speculative opinion but unsupported by any hard evidence. Economic GDP forecasts were compiled by the same folks who have been forecasting GDP for the last 20 years and reported in Reuters last week. They are not perfect but rarely miss by much, and are certainly useful for future planning. These same folks were very close as we went through the unprecedented recession from 2008-2015.

I'd guess that confirmation bias is creeping into your own dire economic outlook.

I’m not seeing forecasts predicting only a 5% US GDP decline. But I would be filled with joy if that came to be true.

I’m seeing predictions of double digit unemployment for 2 years or more.
I hope that’s wrong too.
I’m any event, we’re predicting the future, and as the expert epidemiologists have proven, that’s very hard to do.

Also, as far as US GDP in the future, we know Q1, that’s done. 2Q, it’s hard to predict, given the unprecedented shock to our economy, but clearly it’s going to be bad. Going beyond that, I do believe is highly speculative.
GDP forecasting for the past 20 years may have generally been fairly reliable, but it’s never had to deal with unknowns like this.
So for the second half of 2020 and for 2021, IMO who knows. I’m certainly concerned that it will be painful, but I hope I’m wrong. President Trump says that, despite the massive unemployment we have, businesses disappearing, states on the verge of bankruptcy, etc. we are going to have a huge boom in the second half of the year. I truly hope he’s right.

Part of the reason second half GDP is impossible to accurately predict is that we have no idea how certain big economic states (eg Cal, NY/NJ etc) are going to act going forward.

Yes predicting the future, especially when we have never been here before is difficult. So far it looks like this 1st wave of epidemic is slowing in the US. Hopefully this will allow us to re-open gradually in May as widespread testing identifies clusters of active infection so we can see the enemy and deal with it directly. As we move forward, more treatments, antivirals, and eventually vaccines will become available. It is still going to be a bumpy ride for a while yet but no one believes this is like 1932.

I hope so.

My prediction is that "reopening" will not be like flipping a switch. That there will be a portion of the population that stays home and continues usage of third party delivery services. There will also be a drop off in grocery and necessity shopping when people return to their normal home stocking levels. Nobody bounces back from a depression or recession. It's a slow rebuilding. This won't be different.

Early reports indicate the biggest impact on the US economy may be the reduction in use of elective medical treatments.

Yes, "gradual" is the operative word while watching carefully for outbreaks. Our local hospitals in SoCal are rescheduling elective medical diagnostics and surgical procedures now and this affects my family directly. By mid-May they expect to be back in full operation and this can be done safely with the use of careful prior screening and PPE use.

The sheer dumb luck that I sold off 90% of my business in May last year is not lost on me. We are an essential business and I am still working part time but no longer worry about managing payroll, rent, leverage, or any other feature of overhead expense. This is the second time that I have chosen to exit at exactly the right moment as I sold off my dealership and retail operations in 2005 when the writing was on the wall. Sometimes timing just works out.

The "great recession" actually ended in June of '09, banks had collapsed, housing bubble burst and didn't recover for 3-4 more years, no construction, etc. and the equities boomed....far more than under Trump. And the FED began to drive the market....just like now. The jobs lost back then were primo....folks like me. No one in my field is out of work this time around either. The lower end of the wage scale has been hammered though. Other than the even more massive debt, and some businesses bankrupt, imo, we'll recover much faster on this one....jmho. The Great Depression collapse was also dealing with the dust bowl. The recovery will not be rapid this time either....compare us, the US and others in three years...

Don't bet against the US economy...we suck, but we suck less than China :)!

And if we fail to dig out....well then...

Tabby wuz write :D