Sweden Dealing with Covid the Right Way

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by island911

NY is the exception in this country. This could be due to the half a million who took part of their Chinese New Year celebration, or it could be that they commute packed in metal tubes.

It has been suggested that if SF 49ers had won the super bowl that the ensuing party/parade would have spread the virus fast and wide in the bay area too.

One thing that seems strange to me is the timing. We are told this takes 2 weeks to show in a new carrier; yet the peak was some 4 weeks out past the shutdown start. This suggests that this shut down is not nearly as effective as was sold, and suggests that this transmits much much easier and wider than earlier projected. ...and also lower % get gravely ill than earlier projected.

IOW it seems that this virus must bounce between a at least a couple healthy people (on average) before it finds a old or frail person.

The point is...it ain't the frigging flu. In New York City it has killed nearly twice as many as all other types of death combined,. Nearly twice as many as the worst April in 20 years. I would say that is pretty difficult to downplay. No matter how you try to spin it.

[Sooner or later]

NYC will go from total deaths of 4,000 a month for all causes of death to at least 10,000. Would you risk that in any or all areas?

[Sooner or later]

Go here :

https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D76;jsessionid=32BB54CB6DEF34844C2E42B49C0C8778

Find your counties total deaths for the months of April. Multiply it by 3. Tell me if you would take the risk of a NYC outbreak.

It might take you a while to figure out how to use it, but if you are half as sharp as you think you are you should be able to do it.

Even this dumb azz Sooner managed it,

[livi]

As time goes by and more data piles up I begin to think it is plausible that the Swedish "strategy" is no worse than any other. At least for Sweden. In the long run.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by RWebb

I hear ya!

But it is hard to stop stupidity.

Stupidity is the new herd immunity.

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by livi

As time goes by and more data piles up I begin to think it is plausible that the Swedish "strategy" is no worse than any other. At least for Sweden. In the long run.

Livi, here is an interesting view:

https://spectator.us/swedish-experiment-paying-off/

So why isn’t Sweden changing tack in the fight against the pandemic? ‘The evil that is in the world always comes of ignorance’, wrote Albert Camus in The Plague — a book that eerily depicts the suffering of the human condition when a disease sweeps through society. And lately, scientists and observers have ventured that explanation publicly: perhaps Sweden’s refusal to fall into line is because Tegnell and his team are a bunch of philistines?

A group of 22 scientists made that charge in an op-ed last week in Dagens Nyheter, appealing to the government to rein in supposedly ignorant officials at the Public Health Agency. Last week, a piece in the Daily Telegraph ran with the same theme and expanded it to include much of the national population: Swedes have willingly been duped by ignorant authorities and a chief epidemiologist who has been seduced by his own sudden fame. Our faith in government is so big, and our bandwidth for dissent is so small, that we even scold criticism of the government as ‘shameful betrayal of the national effort’. A journalist from French television that I talked to on Sunday admitted, somewhat sheepishly, that ‘it’s almost as if we want Sweden to fail because then we would know it is you and not us that there is something wrong with’.

There is a simpler explanation: Sweden is sticking to its policy because, on the whole, it is balanced and effectual. So far, the actual development is generally following the government’s prediction.

[tadd]

Clearly the swedes do not like working on weekends. The data has a beautiful periodicity in it!

[livi]

Yes, I read that one, thanks. It is both fascinating and terrifying that our leaders have chosen a very different strategy compared to almost every other country. Makes you wonder what scientific papers they have read that nobody else have access too.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by livi

Yes, I read that one, thanks. It is both fascinating and terrifying that our leaders have chosen a very different strategy compared to almost every other country. Makes you wonder what scientific papers they have read that nobody else have access too.

You are ok as long as the hospitals can handle the load. You, along with everyone else, missed badly on protecting the nursing homes.

[livi]

Hopefully. Yes indeed.

[rusnak]

Finally someone has read Albert Camus, "The Plague".

[legion]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

NYC will go from total deaths of 4,000 a month for all causes of death to at least 10,000. Would you risk that in any or all areas?

Most of the rest of the country is not packed in like sardines.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by legion

Most of the rest of the country is not packed in like sardines.

Every city has a target rich environment that will multiply the spread. High occupancy, close contact, closed environment, extended length of contact.

Movie theaters, big box stores, bars, restaurants, churches, factories, gaming, etc.

High density population is definitely a cause but far from the only cause.

[legion]

And most of those people will be asymptomatic and go about their lives.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by legion

And most of those people will be asymptomatic and go about their lives.

While still infecting others in those areas that check off all the bad boxes.

[legion]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

While still infecting others in those areas that check off all the bad boxes.

Who will also mostly be asymptomatic. Better to have the people who are vulnerable take reasonable precautions than ruin the lives of everyone else.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by legion

Who will also mostly be asymptomatic. Better to have the people who are vulnerable take reasonable precautions than ruin the lives of everyone else.

And we see the results in NY, Louisiana, Michigsn, Athens Georgia area, South Dakota, the Canadian city, a couple of small counties in Oklahoma, and who knows how many other small communities under the gun. Not to mention Eurpoe.

[Iciclehead]

I do not think there is any way to avoid widespread infection, we can't stay in our houses forever at some point society needs to reengage in the manner that we always have....if for nothing else, living a life in your house, never going out, never socializing is not really a life.....I and most people I know would at some point take their chances.

I get concerned that the desire to flatten the curve has actually stopped the infection from running its course, albeit some areas are being hit hard (NY is the leading US example).

I think that if you are old, you are basically screwed no matter what happens. Pneumonia/flu used to be called in my youth the "old man's best friend" that took elderly people from this vale of tears into their life's end. All of us have to die of something at some point and of some cause and in the not too distant future.

If you are younger, the risk is considerably lower and we are not ramping up infection and its subesequent herd tolerance creation as we are ALL staying at home.

How about if people with last names in the first third of the alphabet go back to work tomorrow, let them get their infections out of the way, then after 2 months when that subsides, the next third gets back to work and instigate their infection process and then finally 2 months later the remainder.

We all need to have our exposure and suffer its consequences, mankind has had virtually no luck fully eradicating aerosol or airborne viruses or bacteria, let's not pretend we can do it with this bug.

Dennis

[tadd]

Ice:
I think that is the plan everyone wants... we all have to get it, but it would be really nice if we can 'flatten it' so that if you need a hospital bed, it will be there for you.

Unfortunately load sharing ICU patients is not something that is easy, so some hospitals are slammed, others idle.

[Sooner or later]

The longer we can delay it the better we get at treatment and less time per case in the hospital.