What the CA and NY antibody surveys tell us

[legion]

This virus has been circulating through the population much longer than originally thought. There's no way we'd be seeing antibody numbers in the 20-30% range in CA and NY if that wasn't the case. The official numbers show a sharp increase in cased in March-April, but that is mostly because testing picked up at an exponential rate. The rate at which this virus spread was much lower and it took health officials 4 months to even notice it. What scared them was the death rate in Italy, where over half of the population of the country is in the "extremely vulnerable" category.

As this virus has been out and circulating much longer than thought, the lockdowns are akin to closing the barn door after your neighbor stolen, butchered, and sold your pigs. It cannot be contained, but many people's lives have been ruined trying.

The lockdowns also do nothing to save lives by themselves. There merely shift when people will die. What will save lives is keeping those that are vulnerable separated from the virus until there is a vaccine or herd immunity. Waiting for a vaccine is impractical, will destroy more lives, and there is no guarantee there will ever be one. The better strategy is to let the virus circulate freely, let a herd immunity develop, let people be free and go about their lives, and advise those that are vulnerable to self-isolate.

We should have never shut the country down over this.

[Sooner or later]

Stanford study is bs. Disregard

I can't remark about the USC study. I have no details on it.

The 3 east coast studies. NY, Chelsea Mass, and Miami Dade show far lower, and more realistic rates. About 12 to 1, 15 to 1, and 11 to 1.

10 or 20 to 1 is no surprise to anyone that has been following the data.

[Sooner or later]

20 to 1 is 19,000,000 cases in the US or about 6% of the total population.

[island911]

from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ moments ago.



anyone else see the makings of a bell curve?

The vast majority of recent deaths are in NY.
And, with new COD (cause of death) rules, I expect that a good number of "Covid-19 deaths" (at the tail of that bell) are not primarily Covid-19 deaths.

And let's ask ourselves, how long has NY been shut down?
HOW can they possibly have so many deaths now if we know so much about this virus...
to demand shut-downs and massive social distancing?

IOW, what is working here?
Seems that we don't know all of the mechanisms / confounding factors.
And yet the chants go on...
one solution...
the corona cower.

[Chocaholic]

When you come up with a more logical solution, please let us know. It’s easy to complain. It’s not easy to offer valuable solutions. See post above.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Stanford study is bs. Disregard
...

Disregard? How about grain of salt. (?)

I mean, it is actual testing. What people object to was that it was not random ENOUGH.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

When you come up with a more logical solution, please let us know. It’s easy to complain. It’s not easy to offer valuable solutions. See post above.

The first item of value is in understanding any issue.

If you don't understand what you are dealing with you can't even begin to carve out a solution.

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by island911

Disregard? How about grain of salt. (?)

I mean, it is actual testing. What people object to was that it was not random ENOUGH.

Interesting perspective here:

https://spectator.org/mapping-the-mortality-maze-how-deadly-is-covid-19/

Please read the whole thing before commenting. There will be a test

[Porsche-O-Phile]

We’re probably around 5%-10% of the population having a level of immunity. That’s taken on the order of three months. It’s hard to project how long the next 10% might take, and the next. We have competing factors - the “natural” exponential rate of spread but also aggressive distancing measures deliberately designed to offset it. If I had to guess I’d say that adds up to the same level of pain and discomfort as we have currently for several more months, unless we change our strategy and make it all about getting herd immunity faster (in which case the price is more death in the short term).

My guess is that there is a lot of political incentive (and this is driving policy decisions for quite a few locations) to drag it out until oh, November or so at least, able to justify it as “what was necessary for flattening the curve”.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by island911

Disregard? How about grain of salt. (?)

I mean, it is actual testing. What people object to was that it was not random ENOUGH.

Disregard.

An unapproved test from China that is no longer exported. Asked for participants on Facebook. The wife sent an email to her friends telling them it was a free authorized test that would give them peace of mind on knowing if they have immunity.

Disregard. It should have never been released.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

Interesting perspective here:

https://spectator.org/mapping-the-mortality-maze-how-deadly-is-covid-19/

Please read the whole thing before commenting. There will be a test

(<-note lack of social distance)

That is a MUST READ if there ever was one on this.

Thanks you Seahawk!

[Jeff Higgins]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

When you come up with a more logical solution, please let us know. It’s easy to complain. It’s not easy to offer valuable solutions. See post above.

What if there is no "solution"? It's becoming increasingly apparent that there just might not be a solution of any kind. If that does indeed prove to be the case, it becomes impossible to suggest one. Our current "solution" is now being justified as "better than nothing", and folks who are questioning it are being told to shut up if they have nothing better. Well, what if our current "solution" is, in fact, no better than nothing? It's beginning to appear that way, unfortunately.

[island911]

This thread makes my day.

[Sooner or later]

Explain NYC.

Avg April deaths by all causes (murder, accident, suicide, illness etc) at 4,000.

Currently over 7,000 classified as Covid-19.

So if every stinking death in NYC was misclassified as Covid there are still an additional 3,000+ deaths this month over the 20 year avg. And the month isn't over.

Has NYC fabricated death certificates to get to the current death count?

[island911]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

....

Has NYC fabricated death certificates to get to the current death count?

Read the article Seahawk linked.

an article by JONATHAN GEACH, MD AND ANKUR J. PATEL, M.D. AND LACY WINDHAM, M.D., OB/GYN AND ASHKAN ATTARAN, M.D. AND JASON FRIDAY M.D.
April 25, 2020, 12:00 AM

[Jeff Higgins]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Stanford study is bs. Disregard

I can't remark about the USC study. I have no details on it.

The 3 east coast studies. NY, Chelsea Mass, and Miami Dade show far lower, and more realistic rates. About 12 to 1, 15 to 1, and 11 to 1.

10 or 20 to 1 is no surprise to anyone that has been following the data.

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Disregard.

An unapproved test from China that is no longer exported. Asked for participants on Facebook. The wife sent an email to her friends telling them it was a free authorized test that would give them peace of mind on knowing if they have immunity.

Disregard. It should have never been released.

I'll second that motion. You really need to read the article Seahawk posted. Your assertions are obviously completely baseless, the result of embracing faulty reporting on which you appear wholly under qualified to comment so emphatically.

Originally Posted by Seahawk

Interesting perspective here:

https://spectator.org/mapping-the-mortality-maze-how-deadly-is-covid-19/

Please read the whole thing before commenting. There will be a test

[Sooner or later]

I did read it.

The reason the Stanford study has been attacked is because it is worthless. I have seen no attack against the USC study.
.
I ask again.

NYC has, on avg over the last 20 years. 4000 deaths in April. Current April covid 19 death toll is over 7,000. If every death from murder, suicide, accident, heart attack, and every other medical condition is classified as covidv19 we still come over 3,000 short. Where did the additional 3000+ deaths come from?

[1979-930]

I believe the virus went through our County in late Jan and Feb. The bartender, Nigel, that serves me lunch twice a week. His wife’s best friend was hospitalized with an unknown viral infection in Jan. She was notified a month ago by her doctor that they now know it was Covid19. In Feb Nigel and his wive missed work for being sick. I did not get sick, but my wife did, and both my kids did. They missed a few days of school. Several teachers were out sick during Feb. Some friends were sick. There were a lot of people sick in this area. Some were jokingly calling it the plague.
Now in a population area of 390k we have a whopping 139 cases and 8 deaths.
It’s not from social distancing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pmax]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

The reason the Stanford study has been attacked is because it is worthless.

You will have to do better than that when we know for a fact that the "scientific community" is infested with political types.

Are you one ?

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by pmax

You will have to do better than that when we know for a fact that the "scientific community" is infested with political types.

Are you one ?

Why isn't the USC/!LA County study being attacked? It shows nearly as high a rate.

They oversampled white women and under sampled Hispanics. They recruited via Facebook and an email from the wife of one of the trial doctors. They used Facebook because it was fast. Accuracy was not the reason.

" We used Facebook to quickly reach a large number of county residents and because it allows for granular targeting by zip code and sociodemographic characteristics"

You realize that the unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%).

1.5% of the population of the trial tested positive. Hardly herd immunity territory.

After accounting for their crappy study set up they nearly doubled the % of positive to 2.81%

They are not being attack because of their high rate of past infection. They are being attacked because of a pizz poor set up of a study. USC with their similar results is not being attacked at the current time.

Actual study pdf can be found here.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1