Sweden Dealing with Covid the Right Way

[ckissick]

I think this article deserves its own thread. It's too notable to get lost in the shuffle.

Livi, what do you think?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-found-solution-coronavirus-103003618.html

[island911]

Excellent thread topic.

And apropos that we have a Swede who goes by Livi. --The Swedes do value living.

And I have been saying this from the start... (from the link)

Lots of people are rushing to discredit Sweden’s approach, which relies more on calibrated precautions and isolating only the most vulnerable than on imposing a full lockdown.

This has been so obvious for so long.

[Sooner or later]

Sweden is stuck right in the same local as Finland and Norway.

Case count
Sweden 762 per million
Finland 417
Norway 1,082

Tests
Sweden 5,416 per million
Finland 6,299
Norway 20,530

Deaths is where they are getting, ahem, killed
Sweden 59 per million
Finland 6
Norway 15

They have a higher death per million than the US (33)
The have similar test per million then the US (5,864)
US does have a higher case per million (1,115)

If they continue to have the high daily number of deaths they will change course by the end of the week. They reported a 114 deaths today in a population of 10 million.

If the US a similar amount daily deaths per population level we would report 3,762. Yesterday we reported 1,255.

[Norm K]

Originally Posted by island911

Lots of people are rushing to discredit Sweden’s approach, which relies more on calibrated precautions and isolating only the most vulnerable than on imposing a full lockdown.

This has been so obvious for so long.

I tend to agree, Island, except that it at least seems evident that you're not among the most vulnerable ... until you are.

I suspect that some individuals' own biology is literally the difference between life and death, which is why we're hearing of otherwise young, healthy people with no known underlying conditions succumbing to this virus. If there's anything to my crackpot theory, then until we know what that is, we won't fully know who falls into that most-vulnerable category.

_

[island911]

How many Swedes, per million, are living life?

How many Swedes, per million, are gaining immunity to this?

Just saying, if you make those (likely infirm) deaths the one metric, then a whole lot of people have to put life on hold indefinitely. ...or until there is a sanctioned immunity shot.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Norm K

..., which is why we're hearing of otherwise young, healthy people with no known underlying conditions succumbing to this virus..

_

Gossip. The fact of the matter is we had Kinder - university Pertrie dishes of snot-nosed kids to partying young adults congregating during the contagion period. You have to search hard to find otherwise young, healthy people with no known underlying conditions succumbing to this virus. The stats are pretty clear on who is at risk here.

Please do not tell me that I see thing how I see them because I'm not part of the vulnerable category. I've posted before about how that is NOT the case. It's a cheap shot on your part to suggest that I'm so callous and/or simple minded.

[Major Dad]

The number of tests positive in a country must be correlated with the number of actual tests done. The sooner and the more tests you do the greater will be your number of positive people.

USA is a big big place with lots of people, and Not exactly the healthiest Country. Come back in a week or two and compare then.

[berettafan]

Keeping borders open in Europe is an entirely different thing than it is here. Really doesn't translate. I have a client in Sweden. Talked to him last week and asked if they were doing the shutdown bit like here. Nope. He says they are increasing controls but the big motivator is neighboring Finland threatening to close the border if Sweden doesn't follow certain precautions. This matters, according to my guy, because a large number of Swedens docs come from the very well educated land of the Fins. Close the border and your health care workers can't get in to do their job.

He did not share the characterization of the slow response as 'courageous'. Rather he said it was rooted in a national feeling of arrogance and simple unwillingness to adjust regardless of the risk.

[IROC]

I've had telecons with people in Germany, Sweden and Switzerland today. Of course we all talk about what is going on in our countries. My Swedish colleague isn't convinced that Sweden's approach is correct, but is taking his own precautions. The facility in Sweden that I interact with (it's in Lund) is essentially shutdown and everyone is working from home.

Same with Switzerland (CERN - shut down) and my German friends in southern Germany. Everyone is working from home.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by berettafan

Keeping borders open in Europe is an entirely different thing than it is here. Really doesn't translate. I have a client in Sweden. Talked to him last week and asked if they were doing the shutdown bit like here. Nope. He says they are increasing controls but the big motivator is neighboring Finland threatening to close the border if Sweden doesn't follow certain precautions. This matters, according to my guy, because a large number of Swedens docs come from the very well educated land of the Fins. Close the border and your health care workers can't get in to do their job.

He did not share the characterization of the slow response as 'courageous'. Rather he said it was rooted in a national feeling of arrogance and simple unwillingness to adjust regardless of the risk.

Closing European borders would be more like closing interstate borders.

Just imagine closing the NY state borders or just about any other state in the north east corner of the US. I've worked with folks that worked in New York and lived in Pennsylvania. The passed through New Jersey just to get to work. I'm sure a lot of the rest of that corner is the same when you can drive/ride for a few hours and touch several states.

[Norm K]

Originally Posted by island911

It's a cheap shot on your part to suggest that I'm so callous and/or simple minded.

I certainly didn't mean to cheap-shot you. Don't go all finny on me here by finding something to be offended about when no such thing was intended.

_

[ckissick]

The article says the Covid death rate so far is 40 people per million, while the death rate for a typical flu season is 80 per million.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by island911

You have to search hard to find otherwise young, healthy people with no known underlying conditions succumbing to this virus. The stats are pretty clear on who is at risk here.

That doesn't mean that it's not happening, and that doesn't mean that the few folks that do fit that mold are insignificant.

Imagine, "they" say something like, "don't worry about this, you're fine, unless you're over 60 or have existing health issues that affect breathing/lungs or are immuno-compromised." (or 50 or whatever cutoff you want to use). Then your wife, brother, niece/nephew, neighbor that doesn't fit the at risk list gets it and dies. The people impacted by that sort of outlier would be screaming bloody murder, and the media and Internet would be all over it like white or rice. The "they" that advised not to worry about it would be lynched.

In this sort of thing, it's really easy to get too deep into statistics. It's also easy to go the other way. I read a post by someone online sometime in the last month or so saying "if it saves even a single life, it was worth it." Do we all agree with saving a single life being worth anything? What about saying "well, we could reduce the impact/trouble this is causing, and would only have an extra 5% or 10% that die." IE, total deaths of 100,000, or total of 105,000-110,000.

[ckissick]

It's not worth destroying the economy to save one life. But how many lives would make it worth it? We don't ban cars, as that would destroy our economy. Yet how many thousands die in car crashes every year? Sweden seems to have decided how many people they are willing to lose. So far, it's not really that large a number compared to other causes.

[1990C4S]

Seems premature to suggest that any country is handling this outbreak 'the right way'.

Six months from now, or a year, people can look at the results. No one knows where this is going to end.

The absence of people succumbing in any age group ignores the overall load on the health care system, and that puts everyone at risk.

Lastly, Sweden has 59 deaths per million people. USA has 38, Norway has 16, Canada has 10. How can people tout Sweden as the solution?

[Cajundaddy]

Sweden is running a grand experiment in herd immunity somewhat like the "Chicken Pox parties" of the 50s. We will know a year from now if this turns out to work better for them. My expectation is that a lot of otherwise healthy Swedes will die in the process and a national kill rate of maybe 400/M. Just a wild guess based on Italy and Spain deaths. Time will tell.

[1990C4S]

Sweden is not significantly different than any other country with respect to infection rates:

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

[Captain Ahab Jr]

Originally Posted by 1990C4S

Seems premature to suggest that any country is handling this outbreak 'the right way'.

Six months from now, or a year, people can look at the results. No one knows where this is going to end.

The absence of people succumbing in any age group ignores the overall load on the health care system, and that puts everyone at risk.

Lastly, Sweden has 59 deaths per million people. USA has 38, Norway has 16, Canada has 10. How can people tout Sweden as the solution?

Agree, way too early to judge, history will judge which country handled COVID-19 the best, making the best compromises along the way eg lives saved vs damage to the economy

[tdw28210]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

Sweden is running a grand experiment in herd immunity somewhat like the "Chicken Pox parties" of the 50s. We will know a year from now if this turns out to work better for them. My expectation is that a lot of otherwise healthy Swedes will die in the process and a national kill rate of maybe 400/M. Just a wild guess based on Italy and Spain deaths. Time will tell.

Sweden is currently running at 59 deaths per million, versus the US at 38 million deaths per million. Not sure it's "working" so far. Unclear how it will "work" over the longer term.

[Cajundaddy]

A quick comparison of Sweden with a similar 10M US population: LA County Calif.

Sweden current deaths- 591, hospitalized ICU 640
LA County deaths- 132, hospitalized ICU 486

Both had similar initial infection dates and have similar healthcare quality. My guess is the population of Sweden has better general health with fewer overweight or heart disease conditions.