Sweden Dealing with Covid the Right Way

[techweenie]

Originally Posted by tadd

Island:
That is not quite true. SARS and MERS ususally establish a 2-3 year immunity.

There are many Corona types that only establish a weeks to months immunity.

So this bit remains to be seen.

There are a few scattered anecotes about people catching #COVID-19 a second time. But that could be an artifact of false positives. Or false negatives.

[island911]

false negatives have been very high on past testing. ~38% iirc.

I expect that this was due to test samples sitting too long waiting to be tested.

[tadd]

Island:
Do you have a cite for that? The Chinese paper on testing itself shows false negative variability in what sample is taken. Sputum samples are like 10% false negative, but only time you are going to get that is if you are being tubed. Next up was nasal swab at just below 30% FN, hence, the reason for the deep nasal swab early on needing to be preformed by a Dr.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by techweenie

There are a few scattered anecotes about people catching #COVID-19 a second time. But that could be an artifact of false positives. Or false negatives.

If the test has a 95% rate of accuracy there will be a number of folks released that are still infected. And the rate looks to be lower than 95%.

It requires two negative tests to be released. At 95%:

10,000 get tested the first time. 500 pass that are still infected.

The 500 that passed but are inflected get tested a second time. 25 will pass both tests even though they are still a carrier.

[island911]

Originally Posted by tadd

Island:
Do you have a cite for that? The Chinese paper on testing itself shows false negative variability in what sample is taken. Sputum samples are like 10% false negative, but only time you are going to get that is if you are being tubed. Next up was nasal swab at just below 30% FN, hence, the reason for the deep nasal swab early on needing to be preformed by a Dr.

No Chevy Citation..

My (Dr) wife was tested; after being tested for just about every other possible illness that could cause her CV symptoms. The test results were almost 2 weeks after testing, and... surprise "negative." Her doc told her "37% false neg rate from nasal swap" (I had to look up the text. 37%, not 38% as I recalled earlier.)

I think it's fair to say that testing facilities were overrun with testing requests. And, rather than take time to assess viability of samples they just run them and send the bill with result.

[Sooner or later]

https://www.konj.se/publikationer/konjunkturlaget/konjunkturlaget/2020-04-01-synnerligen-djup-lagkonjunktur-i-sparen-av-covid-19.html

The National Institute of Economic Research expects Swedish GDP to fall by just over 6 per cent in the second quarter. Economic policy has already been shifted in a strong supportive direction. The focus is on supporting the business community, and municipalities and regions, with the aim of countering a wave of bankruptcies and mass unemployment. The NIER's assessment is that this is a good direction, but that more measures than those already decided and announced will be needed to limit the rise in unemployment.

2020 GDP forecast -3.2%

[dad911]

[dad911]

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by dad911

Test rates are so different between counties the case count comparison is almost useless. Sweden tests even less than the US.

Deaths per million is better. Do you have that as a log chart ?

[dad911]

^ Those are deaths. First graph 'Daily' second is total (cumulative)

They are Interactive, click 'Linear' in upper left and it will change to log. Can also add/change countries.

More here. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data#

[rusnak]

If this were 30-40 years ago, Moms would tell their kids to go play with the kid down the street who has COVID-19, to build up their immunity.

[dad911]

Originally Posted by rusnak

If this were 30-40 years ago, Moms would tell their kids to go play with the kid down the street who has COVID-19, to build up their immunity.

Yup, and 50 years later.... Thanks Mom, now we've got Shingles.....

Anyone who's had chickenpox may develop shingles. It isn't known what reactivates the virus.

Have they decided if catching CV19 now gives you immunity later?

[rusnak]

Originally Posted by dad911

Yup, and 50 years later.... Thanks Mom, now we've got Shingles.....

Have they decided if catching CV19 now gives you immunity later?

As a middle-aged adult, would you rather have shingles or chickenpox?

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by techweenie

There are a few scattered anecotes about people catching #COVID-19 a second time. But that could be an artifact of false positives. Or false negatives.

As the world has found out, quite a chunk of the Chinese tests had false negatives. This could lead to that occurrence. Also, there is a question at to the infectious period. You may still test "positive" but no longer actually be shedding virus.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by dad911

^ Those are deaths. First graph 'Daily' second is total (cumulative)

They are Interactive, click 'Linear' in upper left and it will change to log. Can also add/change countries.

More here. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data#

Yeah, I worded my question poorly.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by rusnak

As a middle-aged adult, would you rather have shingles or chickenpox?

Neither, which is why I had to get the Chickenpox/Shingles vaccine at 48. Had to get a Dr. script because I was under 50. I never had Chickenpox, had an anti-body test to be sure. Mrs. Beard tested the same day, since she didn't know the Spanish name for Chickenpox. And NO, it was not Pollopox...varicela

[island911]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Test rates are so different between counties the case count comparison is almost useless. Sweden tests even less than the US.

Deaths per million is better. Do you have that as a log chart ?

But even looking at deaths per million, that can be influenced by demographics. -which country has a higher % over 70y/o.

[HardDrive]

How is this political? This is math. The Swedes are ignoring the math, or not ignoring the math and choosing to take a path that suits them better, a path that will lead to more deaths.

[island911]

Originally Posted by HardDrive

How is this political? This is math. The Swedes are ignoring the math, or not ignoring the math and choosing to take a path that suits them better, a path that will lead to more deaths.

Faith in the big scary models eh?

What Sweden is doing is not reckless. They are giving the elderly more protection than we have been here. Here we simply say "everyone chill in place." and then we watch to see if people are chilling enough to make the politicians happy.

It's been well over three weeks that policy action started here. We still have deaths from CV. I guess the math wasn't perfect.

[450knotOffice]

Originally Posted by HardDrive

How is this political? This is math. The Swedes are ignoring the math, or not ignoring the math and choosing to take a path that suits them better, a path that will lead to more deaths.

So sure you are.

Reality is maybe. Maybe not. Only a look back in a few years will tell us for sure.