In Oregon the governor has been pretty assertive about masks and distancing, compliance is quite good in the cities e.g. Portland, not so much in the more rural areas. Bars and restaurants were allowed to reopen their indoor service with strict limits, but all those around me are choosing to offer only outside table service only plus takeout/delivery, or staying closed. Weather helps here, as its pleasant outside - come about October that'll change. No final decision about schools but I suspect they will be some combination of on-premises and remote. Portland schools are (trying to) give every kid a Chromebook and basic internet or hotspot, and providing pick-up lunches. Our disease trend is up but still managing to hold to a manageable level (about 250-350 new cases/day, about 0-5 deaths/day). About half the cases can be traced to specific hotspots (food packing, nursing homes, etc), the other half is community. Our hospital capacity is okay. Testing is pretty available, in Portland there's a drive-up testing center where you can get a PCR nasal swab, though wait can be up to an hour.

I was pretty sick two weeks ago, symptoms didn't really match Covid but I went to the drive-up and got tested with results in 36 hours, then was tested two days later when I finally went to clinic, was sent to E.D. where there was plenty of capacity and then moved into a room of which there was ample supply, which was nice to see. (Issue turned out to be tonsillar abscess, procedure was unpleasant but straightforward.)

The lack of timelines for actions, along with common flip-flopping of directives, has been a real shortcoming. I can't remember if it was you that said we are simply "winging it" regarding this whole thing, but that is so true.

According to Worldometer we (US) have logged 3,639,653 confirmed case and have 140,442 CV deaths.

quick math.. 3.86% of confirmed cases lead to death.

Of course there are a LOT of cases that are not confirmed. A lot of people who had it and didn't know it; which pushes that 3.86% number even lower.

So just how do we get a number as high as 60%

I will note that I believe that 100% of the people have been adversely affected by our self-inflicted over-reaction to this virus.

If every single person in the country wore a mask.......................


...........how long would it take for the virus to go away for good.

So you think only the cases that lead to death are the important stat? How about the numbers hospitalized or that will develop lifelong issues due to the virus?

Like I said, the stat is that 60% of the population have health issues that put them at risk should they become infected. Heart disease, obesity, diabetes, compromised immune systems due to cancer or just having a weakened immune system in general, a long list of issues that put people at risk. So to say that 3.86% result in death really doesn't mean much. It's about the number of people at risk whose life would be threatened by getting this virus. Death alone doesn't tell the whole story. Some people who get this virus will end up with lifelong complications as a result of having it. So to say that "this virus is not a huge threat to the majority of the population." is wrong. If 60% truly have health issues that could make this virus life threatening to them, it's a huge threat to the majority of the population.

It wouldn't.

This.

No one takes it seriously. Top to bottom.

No.

It is your dangerous spreading of misinformation that pisses people off.

Some period of months - but that is to extirpate it in the US not worldwide, and assumes that hand-washing, etc. nullifies transmission via fomites.

And you'd still worry about inputs from other countries as it would not be extinct.

Now, suppose we successfully render it extinct - it could evolve again, just as smallpox could.

So you're saying the mask is the strawman....

I am told that compliance is poor in Roseburg - by someone who should know. So by cities I think you mean PDX/Salem/Eugene. As you get into the sticks compliance is likely much lower, thereby creating a reservoir for the pathogen.

I work near local hospital. About 30 -50 of our patients work there. I've had about 5 in the last day come in, including staff from covid unit. Over the past several months I've seen about 1000 patients, and treated the hospital staff in varying capacities. The hospital also test all patients coming in for surgeries/deliveries/etc. reporting a general 1.6-2% overall asymptomatic positive rate.

Reporting what the Doctors/students/nurses/and staff working in covid unit have told me, the hospital does NOT profit from high covid rates. To the contrary, when elective procedures were discontinued due to potential ppe supply shortfall, many of the medical/support staff (I've seen) were furloughed/reduced hours. When the hospital opened back up to elective procedures (joint replacements, etc), things have slowly headed towards normal. I was surprised to learn that currently PPE supplies are still reported spotty at best. Covid unit was not inundated during spring, however, noting recent uptick in cases, concerning staff. Nurse yesterday stated they were getting near capacity again in Covid, which was a surprise for me. The general concern seems to be, that the hospital is going to get shut down again for elective procedures if trend continues, which produces huge shortfall. Many on staff are just now getting back up to pre-covid hours.


Right now, no one is getting or needing to get turned away for regular or elective tx. That could change if numbers rise. What does another clampdown mean for the staff? More layoffs/furloughs/ etc. Take the food services. Many worker jobs on the line there with lower numbers and no visitors, no one to serve.

In our state in general, overall concern seems to be the same. Many businesses were closed in spring. Many reopened here in the last month. Resurgence means potentially closing schools for fall, re closing restaurants, etc. who can't weather a second hit. My local mexican joint is nervous. "This, I can do... (pointing to about 50 people capacity well spaced out), but the takeout thing again, I cannot." He's a guy who works his arse off, and is willing to make do, but he can only go so far.

In this environment, we've been asked to wear mask, which is a part of an effort to keep the numbers low enough as to keep the businesses running. Are we being required to run chains to get across loveland pass? No. It's the equivalent of being asked to simply have all season radials with some tread left on them. Effective as chains? perhaps not, yet the same people I know personally who insist that "it's not a big deal- most live, it's all a conspiracy/ fake " are the same that insist they have/loved ones don n95's or complain and wear nothing and sh#$ a brick when their family members with a medical condition start to cough. Personally, I don't think masks are enough. I think they need to be combined with other measures to be effective, but are people willing to try?

So it's my generational moment of truth. Endure nerve gas in a WWI trench? No. Man a tailgun on a WWII bombing raid into Germany? No. Willingly sardine myself in a sherman tank and go up against a panzer? No. I've been simply asked to wear a mask (to help keep numbers low to keep things going).

The willingness to do something for a greater good, even if it seems stupid or requires self sacrifice appears to be something we have lost to previous generations.

"God- I had to wear a mask and walk 30 feet down some stupid one way lines in a grocery store. Oh- the agony."

When I asked the medical staff about locals not taking precautions (local college students had some recent summer parties), the response has been one of disbelief, frustration, and anger.

The Covid nurse yesterday-
"It's simply disrespectful"

Isn't Roseburg "the sticks"? Excuse me but do they even have a ballet company?

Excellent post. Good to hear from someone in the trenches. Best wishes to you. It must be frustrating to you guys to watch people heedlessly taking a risk of infecting others. Not only does that put you at risk, it prolongs the economic damage. All for some sort of weird political/fashion statement.

Curious--what's your area of doctoring, and what state are you in?

Now that's funny.

Not exactly, but check this out:

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk031wYSxRkXzoDgBFClvjg7fnOPDfQ%3A 1594922923301&ei=q5cQX9PrEYqT0PEPqYCW8AE&q=Rosebur g+++ballet+company&oq=Roseburg+++ballet+company&gs _lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzoECAAQR1CxH1ixH2DNKGgAcAJ4AIABU YgBUZIBATGYAQCgAQGqAQdnd3Mtd2l6&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwiT7aXyrtLqAhWKCTQIHSmABR4Q4dUDCAw&ua ct=5


I also recently discovered that the tiny town of Bandon (popn 5,000) has TWO ballet teachers/studios...

You might think that Chainsaw Art Carving doesn't fit well with Interpretive Dance, but...

And then there's the Gov'n of Ga....

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/16/891718516/georgias-governor-issues-order-rescinding-local-mask-mandates

that's not a "ballet" in hooser country.

Thanks- General dentist in Virginia, 90% private practice 10% public health split between two clinics. When covid hit, the dental profession basically self regulated to emergency care only due to significant potential for aerosol transmission, and elective procedures were banned across health care fields by governor to conserve ppe, but I worked the entire time (well- part time) treating emergency needs only. Mostly oral surgery to keep patients out of er. Elective procedures were reinstated since early May. Nice garage? right? btw.... ;)

Edit- Important stuff here - I need to correct my earlier statement about my favorite mexican place. IIRC- he has about a 50 person seating capacity if full. Before covid- always full. Quick seat turnover. Now- He's happy to get by with just 50 people in a night total. Also, if schools don't open again and my wife has to homeschool my daughter, they will kill each other and I'm going to come home to a crime scene and get blamed for it all.

n'No. I'm only pointing to the ridiculousness of the 60% number.

The crude 3.86% I put up is laughably draconian for death rate.

Let's look at this another way... Do you believe that exposure to this virus misses the young, and that's why we have so few (%) entering hospitals and/or dying from CV?

I expect that you would see virus exposure as higher with the general population that goes out and about every day, but IDK...

The knowledge that we do have at this point paints a picture much different than some 60% of American exposed get hospitalized.

What is the number for known hospitalizations? Divide that into the known cases.(while ignoring the unknown/untested)

A quick check says 269k hospitalizations. ...3.5E6 cases... so 7.7% of known cases end up in hospital.

IIRC 7.7% is much less that 60%

So this begs the Q; what kind of mental gymnastics does someone do to get 60% ?