Sweden Did It Wrong

[pmax]

Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
https://unherd.com/2020/10/covid-experts-there-is-another-way/

[ckissick]

I was wondering how Sweden has been doing, now that they are well into the cold weather and people are indoors more now. I couldn't figure out how to copy just the chart on the web search below. It shows daily deaths through October 5. Since July 25th, the daily deaths have been bouncing around between 0 and 6. For the last month or so it's been mostly between 0 and 2 per day. So far, so good, IMO.

https://www.google.com/search?q=sweden+covid+deaths&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1

[pmax]

Rest of Europe's 2x April levels

[ckissick]

As of October 15, Sweden is 27th out of 31 European countries in deaths per 100,000 over the last 14 days, and 23rd in cases.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

[Sooner or later]

We should immediately implement the same nationwide policy that Sweden is under. No exceptions for any state or city.

Unemployment rate in US for Sept 7.9%. Sweden 9.0%

https://www.krisinformation.se/en/hazards-and-risks/disasters-and-incidents/2020/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus/restriktioner-och-forbud

Public gatherings and events may have a maximum of 50 participants. The police can cancel or disband a public gathering or event with more than 50 participants. Anyone who organises an event that violates the ban can face a fine or prison sentence of a maximum of six months.

Public gatherings include the following:
gatherings that constitute demonstrations or which are otherwise held for discussion, expression of opinion or providing information on public or private matters;
lectures and speeches held for the purposes of teaching or for public or civic education;
gatherings for religious practice;
theatrical and cinema performances, concerts and other gatherings for the performance of artistic work, and
other gatherings at which freedom of assembly is exercised.

Public events include the following:
competitions and exhibitions in sports and aviation;
dance performances;
fairground amusements and parades;
markets and fairs, and
other events not regarded as public gatherings or circus performances.
Schools, public transport, private events and visits to shops are excluded.
More information about the ban provided by the Government (in Swedish).

Restaurants and cafes are exempt from the ban (this exemptions was just implemented)
The Swedish Government has decided that restaurants and cafes shall be exempt from the 50-person limit. The change applies from 8 October 2020. Read more about the exemption on the Swedish Police Authority website (in Swedish).

Temporary ban on travel to Sweden
There is a ban on non-essential travel to Sweden from countries outside the EU in order to mitigate the effects of the coronavirus. Information about the temporary entry ban

New rules for restaurants, cafés and pubs. Venues serving food and drink must:

Implement measures to avoid crowding of people in queues, at tables, buffets or bar counters.
Ensure that guests can keep at least one meter's distance from other people.
Only serve food and drink to guests who are seated at a table or a bar counter.
Guests are permitted to order and pick up food and drink, provided that this does not lead to crowding or queues.
Offer guests the opportunity to wash their hands thoroughly with soap and water, or offer them hand sanitiser.
Inform guests about how they can decrease the risk for spreading infection.

[fintstone]

Yes. Sweden has done very well. The truth is pretty obvious; shutdowns and silly cloth masks have not worked anywhere they have been tried. The two week stop to allow hospitals to reset was a good idea...but after that, these things have been pretty much massive failure. Good thing a vaccine is expected to be ready soon.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Yes. Sweden has done very well. The truth is pretty obvious; shutdowns and silly cloth masks have not worked anywhere they have been tried. The two week stop to allow hospitals to reset was a good idea...but after that, these things have been pretty much massive failure. Good thing a vaccine is expected to be ready soon.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/

Sweden implemented nationwide restrictions while the US allowed states and cities to make determinations on what was needed. I will take our approach.

I wouldn't be surprised if the US GDP outperforms Sweden after how well the US has done in the 3rd q.

Sweden announces 3rd Q on Nov 5th.

2nd Q they were down 8.3% vs 2nd Q US was down 9.4%.

Sweden Sept unemployment 8.3%. US unemployment Sept 7.9%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/calendar

[Crowbob]

Fräu Whitmer just knocked Michigan back up to defcon IV on our way to Lockdown #2. Huge pushback is brewing again.

However, she has been schooled on what she is doing to huge sectors of the Michigan economy, which is good.

But guess what? She doesn’t care, which is bad. Or, she’s doing it intentionally, which is worse.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

Fräu Whitmer just knocked Michigan back up to defcon IV on our way to Lockdown #2. Huge pushback is brewing again.

However, she has been schooled on what she is doing to huge sectors of the Michigan economy, which is good.

But guess what? She doesn’t care, which is bad. Or, she’s doing it intentionally, which is worse.

I read where restaurants will be required to get names and phone numbers of all customers.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Sweden implemented nationwide restrictions while the US allowed states and cities to make determinations on what was needed. I will take our approach.

I wouldn't be surprised if the US GDP outperforms Sweden after how well the US has done in the 3rd q.

Sweden announces 3rd Q on Nov 5th.

2nd Q they were down 8.3% vs 2nd Q US was down 9.4%.

Sweden Sept unemployment 8.3%. US unemployment Sept 7.9%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/calendar

Sweden is about the size of a state...so the effect is similar. Sadly, a lot of states have made crazy choice based more on politics than science. The unemployment in Sweden likely has less to do with COVID than elsewhere and the US employment is likely more in spite of the actions that many states and cities have implemented than because of it.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Sweden is about the size of a state...so the effect is similar. Sadly, a lot of states have made crazy choice based more on politics than science. The unemployment in Sweden likely has less to do with COVID than elsewhere and the US employment is likely more in spite of the actions that many states and cities have implemented than because of it.

So, you would want an minimal national standard of restrictions like Sweden implemented? Their policy still allows cities and or provinces to implement stricter restrictions.

Allowing cities and states to set policy to meet their needs is a far better policy. Sweden did not allow that to happen.

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

I read where restaurants will be required to get names and phone numbers of all customers.

True.

Some are trying to tell her this is a huge mistake. People are NOT going to give out their info. They will lie (if they even submit to such intrusions simply to go out to eat) and will thus impede any attempts at contact tracing.

She’ll probably start advocating microchips and tattoos on wrists. Pink of course, instead of the usual blue.

[Sooner or later]

Also, Sweden is starting to clamp down on regions with high case counts.

More Swedish regions advised for more restrictions as COVID-19 cases increase 70 pct in one week - Xinhua | English.news.cn

STOCKHOLM, Oct. 27 (Xinhua) -- COVID-19 cases have increased 70 percent in one week in Sweden, sparking the country to impose more restrictions in more regions, Swedish Television (SVT) on Tuesday quoted Anders Tegnell, a state epidemiologist, as saying at a press conference of the Public Health Agency of Sweden.

According to the SVT report, the Public Health Agency of Sweden has decided to advise stricter restrictions in the southern region of Skane which is neighboring Denmark. "We have made a decision at the Swedish Public Health Agency to have stricter advice in Skane, similar to those in Uppsala," said Tegnell.

Skane, the southernmost county of Sweden, is the second region to be advised for stricter local restrictions after the university city of Uppsala, about 70 kilometers north of the capital Stockholm, where coronavirus has spread rapidly especially among the younger age groups. Currently, the top three regions in Sweden that are particularly affected by the increased transmissions are Skane, Uppsala and Stockholm.

According to SVT, people in the Skane region are currently urged to avoid public transport and shops. Tegnell also suggested that a unified national guideline on restrictions could be used if more regions see an upsurge.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

So, you would want an minimal national standard of restrictions like Sweden implemented? Their policy still allows cities and or provinces to implement stricter restrictions.

Allowing cities and states to set policy to meet their needs is a far better policy. Sweden did not allow that to happen.

I would have no restrictions...and Sweden is much closer to that than much of this nation. I also would not force nursing homes to accept known infected people to kill the other residents...but that seems to have been pretty common in some cites/states. Too many petty dictators out there in local government, reveling in their power...and ignorance.

From what I can tell, restrictions in Sweden are really not very onerous.

[Sooner or later]

Fint, would you be happy with this? Nationwide. On Oct 8th they started backing off.

https://www.verksamt.se/web/international/running/gathered-information-to-certain-business-segments#:~:text=New%20law%20for%20restaurants&text=The%20new%20valid%20regulation%20is,-FS%202020%3A37).&text=The%20new%20law%20also%20means,not%20comply%2 0with%20the%20law.

Public gatherings limited to 50 people
The possibility to arrange public gatherings and public events is limited to 50 people.

Changes to restrictions for restaurants, entertainment venues and cafés
In the past, venues serving food and drink, for instance those that have had music concerts, have been required to comply with both the Act on Temporary Communicable Disease Control Measures at Venues Serving Food and Drink (2020:526) and the limit of a maximum of 50 people. As of 8 October, the ban on all public gatherings and events with more than 50 people no longer applies to such arrangements.

Information to restaurants, cafes and bars
New law for restaurants
From 1 July 2020, are you who operates a restaurant, bar or café legally responsible for adapting your business so that the spread of covid-19 is prevented.

The Public Health Authority's previous regulations and general advice for those who serve food (HSLF-FS 2020: 9) are not longer to applicable with the new law. The new valid regulation is (HSLF-FS 2020:37).

To the regulation (HSLF-FS 2020:37) at the Swedish Public Healt Angecy's website (in Swedish)

The new law also means that the municipality now has the responsibility to both supervise and make decisions about injunctions, bans and is able to close a restaurant that does not comply with the law.

The Public Health Agency of Sweden has developed new general advice to counter the spread of the coronavirus. All operations in Sweden are obliged to take measures to reduce the risk of transmission, based on the recommendations of the Public Health Agency.

Stores and shopping malls should limit the number of customers staying in the premises at the same time. They should also devise alternative solutions for cash queues or indicate how far customers can stand between each other.

If possible, non-profit associations should postpone annual meetings and similar, if the meeting requires participants to meet in the same place.

[fintstone]

It appears to me that their restrictions have been much, much less since this started than for much of this country.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by fintstone

It appears to me that their restrictions have been much, much less since this started than for much of this country.

There policy still allowed localities to implement stricter regs. It would have done nothing to stop what has happened in some states. It would have added limitations to many states that had few restrictions.

The US had a damn good chance at having better 3rd Q unemployment and GDP numbers than Sweden.

[fintstone]

I really don't understand your argument. Employment would have much better here if so much of the economy was not shut down. The places that were more like Sweden have economies that have done much better while not having any worse problems with the disease. A perfect example is all the political rallies where folks showed up and many did not wear masks...yet there have been no real spikes of COVID traced to them afterwards.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by fintstone

I really don't understand your argument. Employment would have much better here if so much of the economy was not shut down. The places that were more like Sweden have economies that have done much better while not having any worse problems with the disease. A perfect example is all the political rallies where folks showed up and many did not wear masks...yet there have been no real spikes of COVID traced to them afterwards.

No area of Sweden was allowed to be as open as Okla, SD or many other states.

I will take the US method of allowing each state to determine their own needs with no national restrictions placed on states.

You can have the Swedish method of required national restrictions with provinces being able to add additional restrictions.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

No area of Sweden was allowed to be as open as Okla, SD or many other states.

I will take the US method of allowing each state to determine their own needs with no national restrictions placed on states.

You can have the Swedish method of required national restrictions with provinces being able to add additional restrictions.

But no area is as closed as much of the major US cities. It floats both ways.

Once again, shutting down millions completely with an oasis of reason here and there has much more impact than having minor restrictions on everyone.