Sweden Did It Wrong

[cabmandone]

Because the "others' harping on the high number of infections in places like Florida and Texas are allegedly medical professionals and some of them are advocating for more shutdowns to prevent "another Florida or Texas" when Florida and Texas combined haven't seen close to the daily death numbers that NY and NJ did.
"look at the infection rate!" seems to be the battle cry. If the number of infections are in age groups that tend to survive this virus, why do infection rates matter?

[Eric Coffey]

^^^ Same phenomenon here in AZ. A few weeks back we were one of the country's top "hot spots" and now (as of a few days back at least) we have the lowest number of daily cases (and lowest R0) in the country.

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Why do you ignore the current economic impact that is staggering?

social experiment

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by cabmando

Because the "others' harping on the high number of infections in places like Florida and Texas are allegedly medical professionals and some of them are advocating for more shutdowns to prevent "another Florida or Texas" when Florida and Texas combined haven't seen close to the daily death numbers that NY and NJ did.
"look at the infection rate!" seems to be the battle cry. If the number of infections are in age groups that tend to survive this virus, why do infection rates matter?

Ignore the hollow battle cry but don't ignore reality.

FL and TX have already surpassed CA in terms of deaths/M and are rising at 3x the rate. They will soon each be higher than CA in total deaths with 1/2 the population or less. 200/day lost to Covid is not the same as NY but it is not pretty. Add 2000/ day who go home with heart, lung, kidney damage and stroke and things don't look so peachy in FL and TX. They are not over this and probably need to sit tight for a few weeks or risk exponential spread, blowing right by NY in total deaths.

[Mahler9th]

" If not, there won't be any money for doctors or hospitals and you will be working for a token payment. "

I don't work for hospitals or doctors.

"Why do you ignore the current economic impact that is staggering?

Where are we going to be when cities and states file for bankruptcy? Without a change it will happen. Then where will we be? "

I don't ignore the economic impact. In fact, I try to remind folks that there is an economic impact that results from Covid-related morbidity and mortality. So th e mpact it is not just "deaths" and the devastation they cause in general.

We may see greater financial impact on governments at many levels without a change soon. But "opening everything up" on a knife switch may make matters worse, not better from an economic standpoint.

This is a complex situation.

[Mahler9th]

"Going to be hard to sue a business over a covid infection and win. The person or persons went to that place of business on their own free will fully knowing the risk. "

I disagree. And others do as well which is why some have created new laws or seek the creation of new laws.

Again, and as an example:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/liability-shield-is-next-coronavirus-aid-battle-11588589100

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

" If not, there won't be any money for doctors or hospitals and you will be working for a token payment. "

I don't work for hospitals or doctors.

"Why do you ignore the current economic impact that is staggering?

Where are we going to be when cities and states file for bankruptcy? Without a change it will happen. Then where will we be? "

I don't ignore the economic impact. In fact, I try to remind folks that there is an economic impact that results from Covid-related morbidity and mortality. So th e mpact it is not just "deaths" and the devastation they cause in general.

We may see greater financial impact on governments at many levels without a change soon. But "opening everything up" on a knife switch may make matters worse, not better from an economic standpoint.

This is a complex situation.

I have never said we should be "opening everything up".

I said we have to use what we have learned to get back in track. How long can Cali last at 15% unemployment?

[Mahler9th]

"Because the "others' harping on the high number of infections in places like Florida and Texas are allegedly medical professionals "

I guess these are "others" with which I am not familiar. And I do not know the definition of "harping." Would would I give a crap about that? Noise. Not signal.

As for the importance of looking at infection rates, I suggest you do some reading/learning in the public health space. Likely on-line courses. One of my consulting clients (he is in strategic consulting and venture capital) has an MPH. His wife is an MD, MPH. My client had an interesting several hour conversation with Dr. Fauci on a plane ride a year or so ago. But not about pandemics. Anyway, I speak with my client about the relationship between infection rates and morbidity, mortality and cost. We have both had high level statistics training, but even a smart 5th grader can understand this stuff... if their minds are open.

One of my close friends is an expert on vaccines (clinical evaluation), and she is married to a CEO of a vaccine company. Not gonna say which one. They certainly understand what is going on.

Like I have said, regarding economic impact, the picture is far bigger than what I see discussed in these forums.

Lots of business folk on the private side are thinking about a new future... for example in the strategy consulting biz:

https://www.innosight.com/insight/navigating-the-covid-19-disruption/

Need to ping their CEO soon... learn more about their biz.

The future will be different from the past.

If we "open everything up," will Ford, GM, Chrysler and the rest sell more cars? If Sweet Tomatoes hadn't shuttered, would people have shown up when restaurants were allowed to open (albeit at a lower capacity)?

This thread has the title "Sweden did it Wrong." I do not know whether that is true or not.

Heard part of an interesting Podcast today... Dr. Osterholm at CIDRAP. He has had some interesting things to say.

I am sure that like many other he gets death threats.

Why is that?

[Mahler9th]

Sooner or later:

"I have never said we should be "opening everything up".

Others in this thread have. I referred to them/him.

You might find some of Osterholm's podcasts interesting.

And I agree, we should use what we have learned. Especially folks in gubmint leadership positions. I think most are doing so. Others, perhaps not.

This is a nasty sombeeech virus. It has created a host of challenges around the globe. And it ain't done yet.

[cabmandone]

"I guess these are "others" with which I am not familiar. And I do not know the definition of "harping." Would would I give a crap about that? Noise. Not signal."

If you're not familiar you should trying doing some reading. Pick the search engine of your preference and type in "medical experts call for new shutdowns". Tons of information if you're willing to go outside your sphere of influence and find information.

Don't know what harping means? Again... internet is a great tool. Or maybe you could ask one of your many influential contacts to explain it to you? Oh hell, I'll throw ya a bone.
Harping: talk or write persistently and tediously on (a particular topic)

[island911]

If Sweden Did it wrong...

What country Did it right?

And HOW did they do it right?

[Jay Auskin]

North Korea

[Sooner or later]

Florida and Texas cases are down 30 to 40% from the peak. Arizona down about 70%.

[monoflo]

I suspect that the "what works -what doesn't" conversations as it applies to containing Covid won't have clear answers until this thing subsides.

One thing I see happening is the changes wrought in American society going forward will rival the change in America from pre WW2 to postwar. Huge debts, societal upheaval, --you name it. All of the change was coming but give Covid credit for hastening and intensifying it

And unlike ww2 it appears at this juncture -the country post WWcovid will be much more divisive.
Though again every view of the future is through the glass darkly.

[Mahler9th]

"If you're not familiar you should trying doing some reading. Pick the search engine of your preference and type in "medical experts call for new shutdowns". Tons of information if you're willing to go outside your sphere of influence and find information. "

I do not need to go outside of my sphere.

And again, Why would I give a crap about "others" and harping?

If you care about that, good for you.

[Mahler9th]

"If the number of infections are in age groups that tend to survive this virus, why do infection rates matter? "

Sure, ask here. Don't ask public health experts. Even if you do, would you believe their responses even if you did not like them?

How do you know whom to believe" Isn't it easiest to just believe folks that say what you want to hear/believe?

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

"If you're not familiar you should trying doing some reading. Pick the search engine of your preference and type in "medical experts call for new shutdowns". Tons of information if you're willing to go outside your sphere of influence and find information. "

I do not need to go outside of my sphere.

And again, Why would I give a crap about "others" and harping?

If you care about that, good for you.

Clearly you do.

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by island911

If Sweden Did it wrong...

What country Did it right?

And HOW did they do it right?

S, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, probably had the most effective response. This is reflected in some of the lowest death/million rates anywhere in the world.

They recognized this pandemic for what it is very early because most had experience with SARS. They shut down travel very quickly, most donned masks early, and they got very aggressive with testing, contact tracing, and quarantine so they could identify clusters of infection, cut them off from the general population, and rapidly contain community spread. Acting quickly and aggressively allowed most of these to avoid a complete lockdown although most bars and large indoor gatherings were halted and a large percentage of the population worked from home.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-08-07/us-health-chief-to-visit-taiwan-a-covid-19-success-story
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-korea

[dad911]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

...... contact tracing, and quarantine......

USA has too large of a spoiled-brat, self-entitled population to do that.

Murphy: NJ contact tracers still hitting brick wall, getting little cooperation.......

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by dad911

USA has too large of a spoiled-brat, self-entitled population to do that.

As a group we do have a bunch of rugged individualist cowboys who avoid cooperation with others as a matter of principle. This works against us in a pandemic allowing far more community spread, longer and deeper economic lockdowns, and more deaths.

Most of the countries who fared well in this pandemic are fiercely capitalist but they also had very high cooperation between government and private business. Lack of cooperation in the US at every level including the white house, congress, state governors, the CDC, school districts, and private business made a mess of things. As a result we are still getting our azz kicked by this thing while most of the EU and the pacific rim are over it.

Lack of cooperation has been our Achilles heel for many years now.