Poll: Will the Stock Market go up or down in the next 100 days?

[stevej37]

If the vaccination goes as planned...definitely UP.

Oops...sorry...I wasn't supposed to say why.

[wdfifteen]

It will go up and down. After 100 days I expect a moderate rise. Back in December about 25% of money managers polled said we were in a bubble, but it was just the first stages. They weren't selling but were nervous.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by Zeke

My wife won't go for it but I could walk away today with about $700,000 cash if I sold my little 1300 sq ft 2 bed 2 bath house.

You could buy three 1300 sq foot 2/2s on an acre each in my county. But you'd have to drive on one-lane country roads and deal with Ohio weather.

[onewhippedpuppy]

I predict down. Personally I don’t see how our economy, which has been limping along dealing with the impact of CV, justifies a record setting market. I think it’s a bubble and eventually the bottom will fall out. I also don’t think we’ve seen the full economic of CV on businesses, particularly small businesses. I think more will fail, ESPECIALLY if there are more lockdowns. That’s just the generic ones, there are a number of already announced policies of the new administration that I think will also have a negative impact given time.

[stevej37]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategists-see-more-stock-market-gains-through-the-end-of-the-year-164055396.html

[MBAtarga]

Tabs - "We're doomed!"

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by MBAtarga

Tabs - "We're doomed!"

Well duh.

[McLovin]

I agree, we are domed.
The question is when?
IDK, but I think the nonstop and now turbo’d govt printing press will keep the party going through 2021.

[thor66]

Up and Down

[fred cook]

Down. Just because.

[stevej37]

He told me how to reach out to him....Tabs..Tabs..Tabs


obviously..the Tab call is not working.

[rwest]

I’m going up, which it did yesterday.

The “Market” doesn’t like surprises and whether or not you like the decisions that will be made, you can predict them and therefore react in a way to maximize your business or investing money.

[ckelly78z]

My 401K made huge strides just yesterday at over 2.5% for one day !....lets keep that rolling !

[rusnak]

The interesting question is what will the media do: talk up the government policies, and try to spin things in a positive light? Or will they do what they always do and peddle fear driven "news"? Either way, the market will look at the Cabinet, starting with Treasury, Defense, Commerce, and whether they will push re-opening or not. I don't think much is actually riding on the vacines working because in any case the virus is now endemic. The emphasis on the vaccine is just playing into the media hype. Market analysist will see through that.

[jlex]

Learned a long time ago: don't fight the tape! Market will be up, but protect yourself with trailing stop losses....

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by McLovin

I agree, we are domed.
The question is when?
IDK, but I think the nonstop and now turbo’d govt printing press will keep the party going through 2021.

In other words, I think this’ll hold through 2021, or at least most of it.

[wdfifteen]

Why isn't "Yes" an option on the poll?

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

From another thread:
Quote:

DJIA is down about 1000 points since this thread was started on Jan 20th (and since you know what happened).
But a lot can change in the next few months

1120 but whos counting.

[sammyg2]

Get ready for a 10% stock drop, driven by the 3 ‘Rs,’ warns Bank of America
Published: Jan. 29, 2021 at 3:11 p.m. ET
By Barbara Kollmeyer

Bonds are one thing that could end up breaking this bull market

Bank of America was ringing alarm bells over equities on Friday, as it warned a correction is looming.

“3R’s of rates, regulation, redistribution are the historic catalysts that end bull markets & bubbles…we say all ’21 events, not ’22, and all spell lower/volatile coming quarters/years,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at the bank, in the Flow Show note to clients.

He said investors may be facing higher inflation in the second quarter, and while it is possible the Federal Reserve may turn more dovish at its March, April and June meetings, there are headwinds. That shift would coincide with 5% gross domestic product growth, more than 20% profit growth, around 3% inflation, and “visible signs of Wall Street excess speculation,” he said.

On the regulation side, Hartnett said investors should take note of China’s central bank tightening up liquidity this week. China is “clearly playing the role of ‘adult-in-room’ willing to tamp down speculative activity in role reversal from 10 year ago.”

But once China tightening starts to coincide with falling bank stocks in the country, fears over liquidity tightening will spread, he said.


The bank noted heavy flows into equities over the past 12 weeks, with a record $272 billion to stocks, the third-largest inflow to emerging market debt and equity ever of $90 billion, the second-biggest inflow to small-caps ever of $28 billion. The S&P 500 is up just 0.8% year to date, but up 14% over the past three months. The index gained 16% in 2020.


What else might break the bull? “Fresh forced selling of QE [quantitative easing]-bull market leadership in high quality tech and IG [investment grade] bonds would be [a] more sinister development,” he said

He noted that 52% of all government bonds that yielded less than 2% 10 years ago are now yielding 12%, while investment grade corporate bonds that were yielding less than 2%, are now at 31%, in that same time frame. No wonder, he said, that high-yield bond issuance is surging in 2021.

Hartnett and the bank also weighed in on the showdown between short selling hedge funds and retail investors organizing through Reddit’s WallStreetBets and other forums, calling it “another escalation” in the war on equality. That has been driving wild action for stocks with short positions, such as videogames retailer GameStop GME, +61.67% and movie-theater chain AMC Entertainment AMC, +56.10%.

Read: Don’t be a pig — advice for both sides of the GameStop saga as Robinhood reopens the spigot

He said the bank’s “secular view is inequality can only end via higher wage inflation for poor and wealth taxation for rich,” as regulation aimed just at new investors will sustain a bull market “in anger.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-a-10-stock-drop-driven-by-the-3-rs-warns-bank-of-america-11611926024?mod=mw_latestnews

[masraum]

The good news is that the reddit and hedge fund folks are making the market a kindler, gentler place and that's sure to do great things for the market.