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jyl jyl is online now
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Whither Oil?

My turn to plumb the PPOT braintrust. The question is oil demand, supply, and price in the next couple years.

Oil companies all see recovery under way, earnings growing, cash flows firming, debt paydown, blah blah. No-one cares, though. You buy oil company stocks when oil is going up; when oil stops going up, you sell. Unless you’re in it for the dividend, but there are other dividend stocks that aren’t so aggravating. Anything else and you’re going to be the guy crying why isn’t this stock working, earnings were so good, valuation so reasonable, while everyone else eats your lunch.

So, is oil price going up? And why?

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Old 05-19-2021, 02:19 PM
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down - supplies are huge; demand is decreasing (EVs)
Old 05-19-2021, 02:28 PM
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I also bet somebody will frack up this thread
Old 05-19-2021, 02:28 PM
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I think the hungry shale producers are going to be able to grow enough to meet demans. It will be a race between expanding US production meeting increased demand.

People will damn sure get out and about this summer after being locked up for a year. Also, how many work at home folks will continue to do so? And the EV explosion of new vehicles is going to really grow with every manufacturer having new offerings so that will take a little bit out of demand.

My guess is that we won't see any big price hike moving forward.
Old 05-19-2021, 03:06 PM
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OPEC+ has been holding down production, they are ready to increase. If I was Russia or Saudi, I’d want to pump all the oil I could in the next decade, before demand starts declining for good. Shale production can ramp quickly, if prices are high enough to sucker I mean attract investment. Demand in the US is coming back strong, I’d guess - traffic is certainly back to normal-ish already, and that’s with unemployment still high. Covid is still suppressing demand in other countries - India, let’s say. EV sales are rising fast but still a drop in the bucket. I’m sure Iran would like to resume selling to simone other than China. Financial markets have been bidding up oil and other commodities as inflation hedges, but with OMG INFLATION!!! on every TV show and news story, it’s probably time to start fading that trade.
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Old 05-19-2021, 03:44 PM
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I look at these charts and just scratch my head. It seems almost impossible to predict where oil prices are going. The last is the pure beta crude oil ETN in percent rise over 5 years.
Old 05-19-2021, 04:44 PM
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Petrol prices in the UK are rising faster than any time in the last 4 years
Old 05-19-2021, 10:52 PM
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Get off my lawn!
 
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I hope the price of oil soon shoots back to 100 buck per barrel. The Oklahoma economy sure could use it. We have all sorts of idle rigs waiting for the price to be profitable to bother drilling.

More oil field money flowing and more oil companies want aerial photography.
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Old 05-20-2021, 12:37 PM
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you guys need some wind turbines

like Texass
Old 05-20-2021, 12:41 PM
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I think the answer to the OP's question would probably frack up this thread. So instead I'll just mumble something incoherent to myself about President Kamala....

Old 05-20-2021, 12:55 PM
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