Stock picks:

[speeder]

I apologize if there is already a thread like this and if so, maybe someone can link me to it?

Anyhow, there seem to be some sharp people around here when it comes to investing and I thought I'd start a thread where people can put their "best guesses." I think that it goes without saying that people should do their own due diligence and understand risk, etc...

I've done alright and seen a few situations coming but it's really occurred to me how incredible the pandemic was as an investment opportunity. I remember when there was a thread here in March of 2020 where someone was worried about his retirement account, I hope to god that person held tight and did not sell. The pandemic presented opportunity for shorting in the beginning, investing in so-called "lockdown stocks" and just a general frat party for investors in the general market. Something has been white hot at any given time, whether it was crypto, petroleum, tech, you name it.

So what's happening next?

[McLovin]

I’m not buying anything now.
Sold all Bitcoin a few weeks ago at $40k.
Haven’t sold any stocks.
But I think there’s a good sized correction coming. My guess is September/October.

[Sooner or later]

I have been all in on pot stocks (aphria/tilray) and O&G (Continental Resources and OneOk.)

I bailed out of Aphria when it went from 5.50 to 27.50 due to a Wallstreetbets run up. I have been nibbling back in Tilray (merged with Aphria). Long term they are positioned well in Europe and gearing up for when it goes legal in the US. Down about 15%, though I only have a couple grand in it. I will slowly accumulate.

I think O&G still has some run up to go. OPEC+ met today, but I haven't seen notes from the meet. My CLR is up 128% ytd. OKE up 53% and still pays a 6.5% dividend. I am way overweighted, hell, it's only money!

[speeder]

That's the spirit!

Keep 'em coming.

[wildthing]

I have 20 years until retirement and I bought these in the last few months. I do not trade. I buy and hold for at least 3 years. Many of my holdings have been purchased more than two years ago.

Salesforce, Etsy, The Trade Desk, Roku, Adobe.

[dw1]

To state the obvious: If anyone here had great stock picks, they would likely keep it to themselves, or be professional brokers who would only share them with their clients. Why give away valuable information for free?

As you may have heard, serious investors maintain diversity and work more at long-term returns. One good way to do that is with a combination of stock & bond funds. I am personally partial to the investment vehicles available from TRowePrice.

If you are looking to invest for the short-to-medium term in a single stock, you are likely to be extremely disappointed. That being said, several of the major investment firms have taken strong positions on Microsoft, when gives them the ability to participate in virtually all of the facets of new enterprise-wide technologies and entertainment software with a single stock.

[Bill Douglas]

The only advice I can give is don't listen to me.



My airport stocks aren't doing too well. Not quite the bounce back I had expected. However... I'm up about 58% on old peoples home (Retirement Villages) stocks. They seem OK.

[jyl]

Will toss out a few names to throw your darts at, understanding that these may be the worst stocks ever and everything I think I know about them may be mistaken, it’s up to you to decide whether to go LONG or SHORT :-)

SPLK - in transition from license to subscription model, stocks always tank when this happens because revenue drops, then as the subscriptions build up a recurring revenue stream, the stocks run up. ADBE is a good example of that dynamic. Of course there isn’t near the confidence in SPLK’s competitive position that there was in ADBE, but worth a try I think. Honestly I’m struggling to find technology stocks that I can stomach buying at their current record-high valuations, this one stands out because it’s way off its highs, there’s a reason for it that isn’t alarming, and I can see it going up without needing to assume that the whole techverse keeps levitating to even more pollyanna valuation levels.

MELI - started as the EBAY of Latin America, then built on features of AMZN PYPL and SQ. By which I mean it started as an online marketplace for thirdparty sellers, then added its own firstparty selling, then online payments, then offline payments, physical payment terminals for brick and mortar, own brand cards, merchant lending, logistics and delivery. There’s plenty to worry about - hyperinflation in Argentina, Covid in Brazil, weak margins and competition from US names in Mexico, foreign currency, no indication it can grow beyond Latin America, local governments aren’t particularly business-friendly, etc etc. But it’s been around long enough and management seems to have done a good or better job navigating all that stuff. I like exposure to LatAm because it doesn’t have Covid under control.

WPC - triple-net REIT with mostly industrial and logistics properties, not zero exposure to office but not much, practically no exposure to retail, rent collections never got too weak even in 2020 and have been improving, cash flow ahead looks solid, and something like a 6% dividend (if I recall). O is another triple-net REIT worth looking at, different types of properties though.

MAA - multifamily (apartment) REIT, focused on South and SE US, so population growth and not much rent control. Rent collection good even with Covid measures, set to get better, rents nationally are rising and doing so in its markets too. Dividend yield is kinda skimpy but they could afford to raise it, if they want to. CPT is another one like this.

WMB and OKE - midstream names, pipelines and processing/fractionation plants with some marketing and terminals. Not MLPs so you avoid the K1 crap. I hated midstream MLPs for years, they burned ridiculous amounts of investor money building out pipelines. Well, those past shareholders all lost their shirts, and the ones who hung on lost their pants when the MLPs got “taken-under” by their controlling corporate partners. The nice thing is the pipelines are built, the corporate inversions are done, and now we can buy them for a lot less than that those poor past suckers did. I avoid any name that is still trying to build a long interstate pipeline, look for names where the list of active and planned projects is short, uncontroversial, and preferably entirely in a oil-loving state like TX. Hopefully as little planned expansion capex as possible, I don’t want to fund construction, I want to sit back and collect a fat dividend from a company that is going to sit back and collect rising profits from increasing capacity utilization of their existing facilities and use that to pay dividends, pay down debt, and buy back stock. When management starts talking about accelerating “investment”, I’ll exit the stocks. With oil & gas companies, “investing in the business” has too often meant “destroying shareholders’ investments”.

FMX, WMMVY, TAP - worth checking out for disparate reasons.

Two that have been frustrating to me - not good stocks so far, I’d guess plenty of smart traders are on the opposite side of these bets:

NVAX - Covid vaccine, normal refrigeration only, simple to manufacture, very good ph 3 data, uncertain what urgency FDA now feels in approving another vaccine and whether manufacturing partners are really set to go. Probably little role for it in the US, but PFE/MRNA can’t supply the world and the AZN, JNJ, Chinese vaccines are looking increasingly iffy in a variant world. They could sell billions of doses in 2022 or flame out. I’ve made around 70% here but am pissed because it should have been 200% by now.

HGEN - do your own work on this one. For some reason, investors don’t give a crap about Covid treatment names anymore, but coming up with treatments is proving much harder than cooking up vaccines (because we still don’t really understand that much about exactly how Covid kills you). Lots of people, including in the US, will still get Covid in the coming year(s) and plenty of them will be hospitalized and need something to save their lives. Thank goodness for the antivaxxers, may enough of them gasp into their ventilators to finally make me money on this pig of a name. Oh, and data from ACTIV trial is coming and that could make or break the story.

In general, I’m trying to keep involved in some Covid names just in case Delta + stupid combine to give us a big Covid surge in the fall.

Lastly, if you’re looking for yield, do some looking at preferred stocks. With investment grade issuers, I’d suggest. And figure out the yield to call or worst.

[jyl]

Oh, add LMT HII and other defense prime contractors to the “look at” list. China is arming up fast, the US will not easily cede military superiority, there’s only 2 companies that will make (as primes) our next gen warplanes, only 2-3 that will make (again, as primes) our next missile defense systems, and only 1 that makes or will ever make our carriers and subs.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by dw1

To state the obvious: If anyone here had great stock picks, they would likely keep it to themselves, or be professional brokers who would only share them with their clients. Why give away valuable information for free?

As you may have heard, serious investors maintain diversity and work more at long-term returns. One good way to do that is with a combination of stock & bond funds. I am personally partial to the investment vehicles available from TRowePrice.

If you are looking to invest for the short-to-medium term in a single stock, you are likely to be extremely disappointed. That being said, several of the major investment firms have taken strong positions on Microsoft, when gives them the ability to participate in virtually all of the facets of new enterprise-wide technologies and entertainment software with a single stock.

There is absolutely no downside to revealing a hot stock pick. In fact, it's just the opposite...the more people who buy it, the more it goes up. It's the opposite of other investments in that way, such as buying apartment buildings in Topeka, KS., where you would want to be the only guy who knows about the opportunity.

This is the genesis of most professional investing advice in newsletters or things you pay for. The advisors may be legitimately trying to steer people into what they believe to be solid investments but they are also likely to hold positions in the same equities and are taking advantage of their position to pump said equities.

[craigster59]

During the pandemic I bought TQQQ which has split and is doing well. I also bought NIO which is kind of like a Chinese version of Tesla.

I had bought Masimo (MASI) on the IPO at $17 and sold a hundred shares when it hit $280. It then dropped to $203 and I was going to reinvest but wavered too long. Now it's back up to $250, I might throw some more $$$ at that one.

[wildthing]

MELI and SE if you want an international play. Again... 10 year time horizon at least.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by craigster59

During the pandemic I bought TQQQ which has split and is doing well. I also bought NIO which is kind of like a Chinese version of Tesla.

I had bought Masimo (MASI) on the IPO at $17 and sold a hundred shares when it hit $280. It then dropped to $203 and I was going to reinvest but wavered too long. Now it's back up to $250, I might throw some more $$$ at that one.

I would own some NIO if it wasn't Chinese.

[Chocaholic]

Here’s my advice...any stock that I recommend...do the opposite.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

Here’s my advice...any stock that I recommend...do the opposite.

Haha, me too sometimes. With me, all of my rookie mistakes were selling stocks that took off like a rocket later. I’ve never made a big mistake buying anything, (only small mistakes), but I’ve made massive errors selling.

Doing the opposite of me on a lot of trades could have made someone rich.

[Sooner or later]

My biggest mistake ever was falling in love with Lucent.

These numbers will be close, it has been too damn long to remember the exact numbers.

I bought it at about 15. Watched it climb to 75. It dropped to 60. "It is a good stock, it will come back". Dropped to 50. "It is a good stock...". Dropped to 40, 30, 25!!!! I sold it at 25.. Still made money, though I could have made a bunch more..

[Bill Douglas]

It depends where you position yourself - are you a trader (day trader), or an investor.

I'm an investor and buy looking for a very good return in a year or two. If I was a trader; no way could I do battle with the big dogs and win.

[drcoastline]

Originally Posted by speeder

There is absolutely no downside to revealing a hot stock pick. In fact, it's just the opposite...the more people who buy it, the more it goes up. It's the opposite of other investments in that way, such as buying apartment buildings in Topeka, KS., where you would want to be the only guy who knows about the opportunity.

This is the genesis of most professional investing advice in newsletters or things you pay for. The advisors may be legitimately trying to steer people into what they believe to be solid investments but they are also likely to hold positions in the same equities and are taking advantage of their position to pump said equities.

Exactly, that's why Buffet routinely says I just bought... or I got out of... to get the price to go where he wants it.

Jim Cramer in his own words. FYI- research in Motion is Blackberry.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by drcoastline

Exactly, that's why Buffet routinely says I just bought... or I got out of... to get the price to go where he wants it.

Jim Cramer in his own words. FYI- research in Motion is Blackberry.

Yep. I own a chunk of Blackberry, it's gone up slightly but if it ever takes off, I'll be laughing.

[tabs]

It is called GAMBLING..

HEY just go in a put your money on the Pass line at the Craps table.