hey watch guys - crypto crash helping availability?
 

https://slashdot.org/story/22/08/02/1828217/the-crypto-collapse-has-flooded-the-market-with-rolex-and-patek

"The collapse in cryptocurrencies is easing supply of the most sought after watches on the second-hand market, depressing prices for hard-to get-Patek Philippe and Rolex models. From a report:
The supply of trophy watches such as the Rolex Daytona or Patek Nautilus 5711A "is now much larger," online-watch trading platform Chrono24 said in an emailed statement. The recent swoon in cryptocurrency valuations "has directly impacted pricing of luxury watches from brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe," said the company, which is based in Karlsruhe, Germany, and has more than half a million watches listed for sale on its website. The price decline for the most sought after models is the latest indication that the once soaring second-hand luxury watch market is starting to lose pace. Surging valuations for crypto currencies had minted a new class of luxury buyers, leading to an unprecedented price increase for models particularly from brands like Rolex, Audemars Piguet and Patek. Now that many digital tokens have been hammered, these consumers are going into reverse."

Even reduced a Patek Philippe is insane price for most models.

We are currently experiencing a "correction" in the high end watch market.

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I should care about 6 figure watches?

At 50% it will be a 3 figure watch.
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/support/smileys/nuts.gif

With new spending bill. Crypto should rebound before the nail in the coffin of American society....


Which reminds me of the scene in the cartoon Hercules. Walks down the street in Thebes where a scalper flashes him in a trenchcoat, "wanna buy a sundial?". Because that's the only thing going to be of value after this Rollercoaster.

Yes of course, especially these hype watches (nautilus, royal oak, daytona). Completely ridiculous and foreseeable by any rational person. My guess is you will be able to buy any of these at msrp in the next year or so.

More sane watches are down 20ish percent as well if you want to treat yourself to a speedy or something.

Thankfully i am on a g shock kick lately

I wish your math was correct, however, not too accurate in this situation.

Me too. :(

Well no but they also talk about the stainless steel Rolex's in the video. They are now just above retail and that hasn't been the case for more than 7 years.

What this means is that a lot of "watch traders" (flippers) have taken a big hit.
- "Easy come easy go". :cool:

:)

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1660718878.jpg

Here ya go...

https://www.gearpatrol.com/watches/a590001/g-shock/

lol

No, only 6 figure cues.

I understand that it's supposed to be a good watch, like a cross between a Toyota and a tank. A lot of them look like they are 3/4" thick and 2" across. And a lot of them remind me of "tacticool" stuff. Not my thing. THere are some that are more subdued that I could see myself wearing.

I love the old school square gshocks just because I am trying to live my life in the 80s/90s

Ive been wearing this absolutely ridiculous bright orange nasa gshock for a few weeks now. I've been have a good time being a bit flamboyant. I have too many nice watches but they are all very reserved plain designs. I also dress really plain / neutral so its been fun wearing something so out of character for minimal $$. Plus its fun to play with the features without going full smart watch which is not for me


https://www.casio.com/content/dam/ca...l-pc/image.jpg

high end video cards used in mining are being dumped [sort of]
no more over retail instant sell outs do to the crash of the coin prices

at lease one can buy them near retail now

collectable and interesting cars are next I think, but to a lesser degree

Definitely NOT mugger bait. :D A video on G shock watches..I had no idea there were so many choices.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aku8fY8v1Lk&ab_channel=UponTop

Sorry but I have to disagree with this prediction. There are only so many classic & interesting cars. Most new cars are designed to be snapped together like Lego in far off labor cheap countries. The ones that are not are stupidly expensive to begin with.

Do you think Porsche or any other mainstream manufacturer would build a car with an air cooled engine ever again?
Companies like Singer & RUF are not mainstream.

BTW Rolex makes somewhere around 800,000 watches a every year.

This is more my style... "SEIKO PROSPEX - Arnie"

(Be careful when shopping for one of these. There are several different model numbers so do your homework beforehand.)

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1660767244.jpg

Only 5 figures...I guess you could make an offer:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/115365575152?var=0&mkevt=1&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&campid=5338590836&toolid=10044&customid=1734f9eb 31f01680a8c29b16561d3cf8

Really alot of cars transition from "used cars" to "collectable cars" with each passing year. Something like a 997 is in a transition now. Hell in the year 2050 a 991 will probably be appreciate for its raw feeling and simplicity.

Also the same pool of old cars were worth about half as much pre pandemic. Similar supply but more demand due to boredom and excess cash. That is the nature of my prediction: recession and available cash. Many cars are already down significantly.


But I could be wrong and they level out, we shall see.

You're right, we will see but... Will a 997 still be on the road in 30 years? I'm guessing more than 90% would be long gone. The ones that are left will have aftermarket computers controlling their various functions because the OEM black boxes from Porsche will be NLA.

VCR, wrist watch, rotary dial phones, film camera, fax machine, CD, floppy disk, wrist watch.

Watching those idiots discuss their Beenie Baby collection is sad.

Even before having a phone that tells me the time all over the world I never found wearing a watch to be desirable. The few times that I did I was always whacking the darn thing and it never felt comfortable. So, spending $$$$$s on one just doesn't seem reasonable to me.

Are you referring to the video I posted? If you are it would be hard to argue that your description is no accurate. ;)

I've always appreciated mechanical watches but my "daily" is a quartz powered Tag Kirium. It just works and it's accurate.
The movement is by ETA (Swiss) and is fully serviceable. Not cheap but it has served me well for more than 20 years.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1661207914.jpg

More from Producer Michael. These ultra rare pieces have maintained their value for now.

IMO The entire high end watch industry will "normalize" over the next 12 months. What that means is second hand watches will be priced as such and you'll be able to buy just about anything brand new at retail. The limited edition collector pieces will always sell above retail but the market for those is tiny. Anything customized with after market ad on's (Custom faces, diamonds etc.) will be hit hard.

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I detest RM, but when I can buy one for 1500$ in a decade or so I might just for sport.

Producer Michael generally has terrible taste in watches but he is getting better. He is a good example of not judging a book by the proverbial cover, he seems like a walking stereotype of California style garishness, but actually seems like a nice guy in reality.

Id happily rock that all gold VC oversees or the A lange sohn SS watch in the pick though

I have to agree with you. Mostly. From an engineering perspective I think they're amazing pieces of machinery, but they're f'ugly in my opinion. My first rule of watch buying is I'd have to want to wear it and those are generally a big no. Of course, I haven't got that sort of money laying around anyway but, even if I did, some of the more classic pieces would be more my taste. Those you mentioned are far more attractive.

Yes absolutely... German made class. ;)

Geeze... a bunch of salesmen sitting around to tell us all how much these special tulip bulbs, I mean time-pieces are worth. -You see, this one here is worth a HOUSE - but don't drop it, it might shatter. -Ha! puh-leeze

I agree..just overpriced baubles. I can understand the price of a high performance car...because it IS the performance. But what do these watches do? Uh, they tell time...period. I suppose they send a message to others that can be good or bad, depending on perception...

It totally makes sense that nonsense jewelry would make sense to people that are attracted to crypto. But I bet there's a bunch of non-crypto doofs out there waiting to take up the slack. :)

I had a few hours to kill transiting in vancouver airport. Best by far was the 'high end scotch shop' with racks of bottles starting at $12k and going to $200k.

Must have been an off-hour because no one was in there so I got to chat with the pimply faced shopkeepers. Guy was saying these bottles were an investment because the prices have been going up about 15% a month.

Honestly would tickle me pick to realize my ridicule was ill-placed.

That's definitely true, but I wonder how sustainable that will be. I have several bottles of single malt which currently retail in the thousands. Mind you, I paid normal prices for them when I bought them fifteen or twenty years ago. The difference is I'll open one every now and again and drink it, preferably sharing it with friends who appreciate it. I didn't purchase them as investments. Similar bottles on the market now, the new equivalents of what I purchased back then, are already silly money because of speculators. Even if you did want to spend the money to try one, you'd have to be lucky to find one before they all get snapped up. The marketers behind the well known brands have really taken hold of this and my opinion is the industry has been taken over with BS marketing fads and gimmicks. Quality isn't what it was, but they can put out special editions and people buy it. The real enthusiast are the ones who suffer. Priced out of the thing they enjoy by speculators.
I think the same is true in any product which falls into the 'investment' category.

What you're seeing in that video is effective marketing over the decades.

The Swiss watch industry got a Royal Rogering long ago with the release of the quarts watch by Seiko. Since then it's been rebuilt into what it is now by "interested parties". There's lots of info online about the people backing the Swiss watch industry & their motives. It's a deep dive with a smattering of conspiracy theories and shady characters.

As an exsample: Jacob Adabo, the founder of "Jacob & Co"
"Arabo was arrested in 2006 on accusations that he and others conspired to launder about $270 million in drug profits for the Black Mafia Family. These charges were eventually dropped and in June 2008 Arabo pleaded guilty to a lesser charge of falsifying records and giving false statements as part of a deal he struck with federal prosecutors. The judge sentenced Arabo to a 2.5 year sentence in federal prison and ordered him to pay a $50,000 fine and an additional $2,000,000 as forfeiture to the US government."[28]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Arabo

"Conor McGregor drops £2.2M (2,603,821 US) on Jacob & Co. watches including one with an X-rated twist…"

https://timeandtidewatches.com/conor-mcgregor-drops-2-2m-on-a-duo-of-knockout-jacob-co-watches/

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1661466115.jpg

Jacob and co are terrible, but I didnt know he went to jail. I had been watching producer Michael the last few years sorta like watching a train wreck, couldn't look away. Jacob seems like a nice enough guy in the interviews though.

High end watches are stupid, fast cars are stupid, luxury anything is stupid......but life is short and partake in what makes you happy if you aint hurtin no one.

I really have no desire for an ultra high end watch, at least these ones from the modern instagram era. I do love to look at haute horology in the classic sense from Patek and watchmakers with history. A jacob and co or RM is for people who drive wrapped Bugatti's and go on gumball rallies a patek minute repeater is more likely worn by someone who owns a 550 spider or pebble beach participant.

"Richard Mille watches are amazing pieces of mechanical engineering, but f'ugly"

Jacob & Co. - "Hold my beer"

Imagine walking around with a crystal bird cage on your wrist thinking it somehow looks cool.

- Stupid celebrities with way too much money or a reflection of what people really value?
EG. The Karadashians collectively have made Billions on the utter stupidity of modern society.

- There's a massive & corrective "kick in the balls" on its way to all of us right now!
Which means we're already %^$#ed & most people don't even know it!

Damn, that watch is ugly as sin.