Starting to think we are screwed as a species - it's depressing

[Deschodt]

I'm not an environmentalist, not a tree hugger, I wanna burn gas in a 911 as long as possible, just interested in science and been reading a lot of stuff from some clever guys (not English speakers so no links for now -if this escalates we can add that)

It appears that a +2C average temps rise is a)happening within 10yrs - period, and b) gonna make a whole belt around the equator and other places of high humidity unlivable 1/2 the year. We can survive at 35C/95F but that + 100% humidity means sweating does not work to cool you off, and you stay home or die. That's gonna cause major political unrest in those countries (and FL!), and then major migration (spreading unrest, possibly wars). We're not ready for this, not ready planning for this aside from military options I guess..

Gov'ts are tooting EVs and solar as a solution, yeah that is adorable but Solar and Wind are intermittent at best and require storage (batteries) which in turn require oil to go mining and making plastic and extracting ore for batteries etc... Sure it'll help but on KWH produced per grams of carbon added to the air, the total bill for solar and wind is kinda crap because of that associated storage need. Until we solve the battery issue, the only "doable" way of decarboning power production quick and clean (in terms of carbon output) is Nuclear + hydro. That's IT. And not everyone has hydro. You look at places like Germany that tried to stop nuclear and replace it with solar, the results have been awful in terms of carbon. Yet all aforementioned govt's are RUNNING away from Nuclear and closing plants cause it scares the people. We're not ready for this either. Everything "we" know as a way of life is coming from living in an age of incredible energy abundance. Travel, heat, power, mass production of stuff, global economy, mass agriculture.. everything, powered by oil. Within 30y the numbers show about a halving of oil production (let alone the associated pollution) so you choose what you do with this - defense, transportation, food production ? something's gotta give. Also if it gets bad what if producers start hoarding and not selling, at all ?

We're getting to a point where + x degrees C in temps means -x food production. At some point we're gonna run into a resource allocation issue of the available oil/power left, do we make goods with it, or do we supply the food chain and distribute food, not both.... Not ready for that food shortage or price hike on food either...

Simple math of existing enacted laws on decarboning isn't working - just as an example the airlines should be reducing carbon output 5% a year, instead they are adding flights. Some smarter folks did math on flying - if everyone on earth was allowed the same number of transatlantic flights under this new regime - we would get 4x flights life time per human. 4 ! Not cool.. We're definitely not ready to accept that (and not everyone on earth is wealthy enough for flying, but it still makes you think)...

A metal expert was on also, earth doesn't "make" new deposits, supply is finite and going away at least economically speaking ... One of them was talking about ratings of deposits (I do not recall the nomenclature, bear with me), 50y ago an ore deposit "find" with a rating of say B or C was very cool to find and use... Now we're in the E-F categories (!) being considered big deposits. As and Bs are long gone. ...it's more and more $ to extract and also pollutes more in the process. And uses oil and water, both things we try to save. We make too much stuff with metals and there's gonna be less of it and it'll soon be way more expensive... we're gonna have to enter an age of mega recycling of old stuff.. we're not heading that way... Go buy a new iphone 15 ;-)

It looks pretty clear that we're gonna need a scientific breakthrough, on cleaning the atmosphere and try to lower temps that way, or on a battery solution -ideally both ! and in all cases, degrowth. We're totally not ready to accept degrowth - hell I'm not! The economic systems all over the world works on 3% GDP growth, employment works on output growing, all our models do, even manning retirement homes or retirement funds. What to do with people if we want to make less crap and save resources ? Nobody is really planing for that.

Anyway, this is just a quick dumb summary of listening to really clever people lately, it's looking pretty bleak - maybe not for us, but for our kids... I have faith in science to bail us out, but not sure the timing will work out and who "us" is.

[Baz]

[Zeke]

I agree. Too bad degrowth is not on the table. Oversimplified, the way the Chinese were going about it. So much sentiment "kids are wonderful" and at the same time the planet is dying.

[Dixie]

If humans were serious about the environment, we'd implement population control. Until then, it's all lip service.

(I give this thread 5 more posts, then it'll be in PARF.)

[Crowbob]

Should have been in PARF from the get-go.

In actual fact, any discussion about significant problems on this earth are directly attributable to politics or religion.

[LWJ]

Well. I agree. But then again, I also like to argue the opposite.

Yes. We are screwed. Climate displacement is real.

But, have you seen the population predictions? Should peak at 10MM down to 2MM.

If, and this is a big if, we can ride this down. And find a way to keep economies running with a DECLINE, who knows.

We have been pretty adept at surviving for a while.

[Icemaster]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

Should have been in PARF from the get-go.

In actual fact, any discussion about significant problems on this earth are directly attributable to politics or religion.

Which are directly attributable to economics.

[pwd72s]

And I'm supposed to accept the climate change prediction made in the opening post as gospel? Yeah...right...

[red 928]

yes if people are this gullible,
then the species is screwed.

[jyl]

I think people will handle this as we normally do. We’ll squabble and delay, deceive and divide, make money on the present, sell the future, until things are really, really bad, so bad that no-one can pretend it isn’t. Then those with money and resources and power will do what it takes to make their particular place livable, while those without will suffer and die. Then things will get worse, so that even the rich places aren’t livable and new plagues and pestilences sweep the world. Then, and only then, will we find a whole-planet solution. Which may be geo-engineering on a planetary scale. We’ll reduce solar radiation on the earth by orbiting shades in space or seeding the atmosphere with particles, extract carbon from the air and oceans, stuff that is science fiction today but will be reality fifty or a hundred years from today. Yes, we’ll also do lots and lots of renewable and nuclear and bioengineering and conservation - that won’t be enough by itself, but it will be enough that the geo-engineering can do the rest. By 2123, or 2223, a lot of species will be gone or nearly so, there may be fewer people, the rich may not be living in Aspen and Paris and Shanghai, the poor may be living more desperately and dying younger, but I think there will still be billions of people in organized, more or less affluent, technologically adept, culturally rich societies making music and babies and doing more than just surviving. Being in the US or one of the rich countries now probably gives decent odds that you, your kids, their kids, and so on to your descendants all live their lives in one of those fortunate societies. Being in one of the poor countries now probably gives decent odds of the opposite.

[RobFrost]

The answers:

The elite set up shop on the moon and adjust a meteor trajectory to reset the Earth then drop back down when plants are all reestablished. I'd say it's a lot more likely than people estimate, that this has happened before. Possibly many times.

Al Qaieda take us all back to the stone age.

We find how to turn electricity into carbon fuel then keep growing in numbers and depleting the greenery until there's insufficient oxygen and we are limited by suffocation.

Sent from my SM-G988B using Tapatalk

[KFC911]

We're nothing special as a species ... name one that hasn't been .... or will be.

Mother Earth just giggles in amusement....

NEXT!

[Dixie]

I wish to provide a more philosophical answer....

For a brief moment, man rejoiced when the creation of fire was discovered. This was quickly followed by lament. "Future generations are doomed! No one knows how to put it out!"

It's easy to despair that future generations face huge challenges. But it's important to remember mankind needs challenges. Without them we will never know who we are. It's also why overcoming challenges always inadvertently creates new ones. The plight of mankind keeps improving as time marches on, but adversity will always remain. It's a necessary part of being human.

[KFC911]

I took a Philosophy class once in Logic ... essentially Boolean Algebra... professor wanted me to tutor others .... I knew better tho' ... cause I did the Maf

We're Domed

[RM512]

[HardDrive]

Putting aside the issue of causality, the environment is changing. I don't think its a slam dunk that every outcome from the coming changes will be disaster. Humans are clever monkeys. We can adapt, we can innovate. It entirely possible that our reaction to climate change will spur innovation and economic growth.

[Jeff Higgins]

We are simply along for the ride. To think we, as a species, can influence this in any way is laughable. That notion has, in and of itself, spawned a whole new religion, replete with the trappings of every religion that has preceded it. Man is evil. Man is destructive. Man needs to repent and sacrifice. Give up most, if not all of our modern creature comforts and learn to suffer a bit more. All of it based upon "evidence" that is open to a very broad range of interpretation, with noted, respected, accomplished experts in vehement disagreement with one another. The loudest proponents are those with the lowest technical or scientific understanding of that evidence, who have simply chosen sides based upon their guilt, desire for peer acceptance, desire to control others, and other non-scientific factors. These basic precepts are unchanged across the board, down through the ages, found in every religion we have ever concocted. This is just the modern version of all of that.

It's an easy sell to urban man. Their world is very small, far smaller than it is in all actuality. For those of us who have spent a good deal of time out there in this world's vast, open, lonely spaces - not so much. When we can fly halfway around this giant globe in half of one day, from one crowded metropolis to another, and never see nor experience anything else, the world seems very small and crowded indeed. It's easy to think that those teeming masses, and the industry that supports their comforts of modern living, can have some influence over the climate on this planet. Haughty man. We couldn't do it even if we tried. Even if we put our best effort into it.

Again, no more than another religion, with all of their trappings. Helping to assuage the guilt while building like minded peer groups and associations amongst those urbanites who feel as though they have it too good, too easy. And a great way to force your will upon others who do not agree with you - again, just like any other religion.

[jyl]

We have already influenced things (ref acceleration of warming and CO2) in a very short time (100 yr), so we can influence things the opposite way, but our efforts will depend on how critical the situation is for those with the money and power to influence.

Right now, situation does not seem critical to many in the US. Heat, drought, water, weather are still tolerable even in the S/SW/SE US, in the “boiling frogs” sense of tolerable. It may be critical to some, e.g. in the southern hemisphere, but they don’t have the ability to do much of anything but suffer and die (and try to migrate).

Humans mostly think of things in the timescale of their remaining lifespan, so naturally people with only 10-15 years left are the least inclined to permit inconvenience, expense, or even undesired information. Young people, with 60-70 years left (which feels like longer, when you’re young) are the most inclined.

I expect that attitudes on climate change will take many generations to fully change, much like it is taking (non-Blacks’) attitudes on racism, civil rights, etc generations to change. From Civil War to now is 170 years, and few would claim that legacy has been fully extinguished. Pick any social issue and you see the same long process of change.

It’s not just that one generation has to die off and be replaced by another. Most social issues have underlying economic and political forces. Slavery was long-lasting because it was the economic and political foundation of the South, racism (specifically the white/black aspect) is long-lasting for similar reasons (keep black labor cheap, suppress black political power). Similar for gender discrimination, for wealth inequality, etc. Those forces outlive generations (cheap black or female labor is just as profitable now as it was in 1870).

What are the economic and political forces around climate change? Pretty obvious - CO2 emissions are important for the profitability of many (most?) industries, the political power of many countries (why do you think Saudi, Russia work so hard to influence pertinent Western attitudes) and groups. As the renewables sector grows, its economic interests will too - but it is still rather small and fragile.

[Zeke]

Now it's PARF.

I still agree. But if you were to take a ride all day long in Los Angeles hitting as many areas as you could in one day, talking to just a few in each area, you'd just throw up your hands. Just thinking about this puts you in the 1%.

It's not just the ones that have less time here.

[Alan A]

So OP - do you not think it’s hubris that we as a species could affect global climate in isolation given the historical observed planetary temperature ranges?
Serious question.