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-   -   A chat conversation I had with a Tesla fanboy today... (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1160364-chat-conversation-i-had-tesla-fanboy-today.html)

Shaun @ Tru6 04-23-2024 11:46 AM

Gas would be dirt cheap right now if Saudi Arabia was pumping what it could. But capitalism with managed control of a commodity. Certainly can't blame them or do we need drill baby drill chanting?

US leads global oil production for sixth straight year- EIA

By Reuters
March 11, 2024

March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil production lead global oil production for a sixth straight year, with a record breaking average production of 12.9 million barrels per day (bpd), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a release on Monday.

In December, U.S. crude oil production hit a new monthly record high of over 13.3 million bpd, the agency said.

"The United States produced more crude oil than any nation at any time, according to our International Energy Statistics, for the past six years in a row," the EIA added.

The EIA says it is unlikely that the record will be broken by another country in the near term.

Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia's government in January ordered Aramco to halt its oil expansion plan and to target a maximum sustained production capacity of 12 million barrels per day (bpd), one million bpd below a target announced in 2020.

Global benchmark Brent fell on Monday, dipping below $82 a barrel, as persistent geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and Russia collide with jitters about softening demand in China.

Recently, OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second quarter, giving extra support to the market amid concerns over global growth and rising output outside the group.

Shaun @ Tru6 04-23-2024 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 12237133)
Oil matters HUGELY to the American standard of living! Our whole economy runs on oil. That's what's wrong. We depend on a globally traded commodity that we don't control. We are at the mercy of OPEC and the other oil producers, and they don't give a rip about our standard of living. We need to start getting off of oil now so our economy doesn't implode when cheap oil runs out.

Why do you even bother? The answer is for the U.S. to drill more oil. Obviously.

Superman 04-23-2024 12:01 PM

Hubris. Musk may never notice he is not a god.

wdfifteen 04-23-2024 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 12237145)
Why do you even bother? The answer is for the U.S. to drill more oil. Obviously.

Right. The US has been a net exporter of oil for the past several years. Pumping even more boosts profits for the oil companies but it isn’t going to help US consumers a bit. OPEC+ controls the price. They want to pump more oil out from under our feet so it can be sold to China, India, South Africa - the BRICS countries that have signed onto the plan to undermine the value of the US dollar.
You don’t suppose draining our cheap oil reserves is part of the scheme do you? What’s going to happen to our economy when we only have tight oil and oil shale left? (“Oh, but we have a thousand years worth of oil left!”)
We are gettIng by now, but we are truly screwed when the cheap oil is gone.

Shaun @ Tru6 04-23-2024 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 12237331)
Right. The US has been a net exporter of oil for the past several years. Pumping even more boosts profits for the oil companies but it isn’t going to help US consumers a bit. OPEC+ controls the price. They want to pump more oil out from under our feet so it can be sold to China, India, South Africa - the BRICS countries that have signed onto the plan to undermine the value of the US dollar.
You don’t suppose draining our cheap oil reserves is part of the scheme do you? What’s going to happen to our economy when we only have tight oil and oil shale left? (“Oh, but we have a thousand years worth of oil left!”)
We are gettIng by now, but we are truly screwed when the cheap oil is gone.

oh my, I'm not sure you understand the oil market at all. You see, oil pumped in the USA is OUR oil. If we pump more oil, the price will go down and gas prices will be back to 1050s levels. Everyone knows that. OPEC doesn't have any control over OUR oil or the price of oil.

The problem is the US doesn't drill and pump enough oil. We just need to pump more for lower gas prices. It's that simple.

Sooner or later 04-23-2024 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 12237331)
Right. The US has been a net exporter of oil for the past several years. Pumping even more boosts profits for the oil companies but it isn’t going to help US consumers a bit. OPEC+ controls the price. They want to pump more oil out from under our feet so it can be sold to China, India, South Africa - the BRICS countries that have signed onto the plan to undermine the value of the US dollar.
You don’t suppose draining our cheap oil reserves is part of the scheme do you? What’s going to happen to our economy when we only have tight oil and oil shale left? (“Oh, but we have a thousand years worth of oil left!”)
We are gettIng by now, but we are truly screwed when the cheap oil is gone.

No no no.

The US has not been a net exporter of oil. We have been a net exporter of energy since 4th quarter 2019. Energy is crude, natural gas, refined products, etc.

Our net imports of crude is at levels not seen in decades.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrntus2&f=a

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1713918884.jpg

wdfifteen 04-23-2024 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 12237344)
No no no.

The US has not been a net exporter of oil. We have been a net exporter of energy since 4th quarter 2019. Energy is crude, natural gas, refined products, etc.

Yes, the petroleum products that our economy depends on. Taking out from under us and selling it.

Sooner or later 04-23-2024 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 12237350)
Yes, the petroleum products that our economy depends on. Taking out from under us and selling it.

Net exporter of energy which is made up of crude, natural gas, refined products, etc.

Your statement that we have been a net exporter of oil for several years is inaccurate.

You can go here and see imports, exports, and net by source.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_NUS-Z00_mbblpd_w.htm

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1713920040.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1713920040.jpg

Zeke 04-23-2024 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 12237331)
Right. The US has been a net exporter of oil for the past several years. Pumping even more boosts profits for the oil companies but it isn’t going to help US consumers a bit. OPEC+ controls the price. They want to pump more oil out from under our feet so it can be sold to China, India, South Africa - the BRICS countries that have signed onto the plan to undermine the value of the US dollar.
You don’t suppose draining our cheap oil reserves is part of the scheme do you? What’s going to happen to our economy when we only have tight oil and oil shale left? (“Oh, but we have a thousand years worth of oil left!”)
We are gettIng by now, but we are truly screwed when the cheap oil is gone.

Oil supply will likely outlast the human population on Earth. People act like this game is gonna last forever. IDK so.

wdfifteen 04-24-2024 03:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke (Post 12237377)
Oil supply will likely outlast the human population on Earth. People act like this game is gonna last forever. IDK so.

It’s not a question of whether there will be oil. The big question is who will control it, how much will it cost, and what are the implications for our economy.

wdfifteen 04-24-2024 03:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 12237358)

Your statement that we have been a net exporter of oil for several years is inaccurate.

You can go here and see imports, exports, and net by source.

The generic term “oil” is usually understood to mean petroleum of all kinds. When crude oil is being considered it is referred to as “crude oil,” as it is in the charts you posted.

Shaun @ Tru6 04-24-2024 03:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 12237483)
It’s not a question of whether there will be oil. The big question is who will control it, how much will it cost, and what are the implications for our economy.

This is such a simple concept that so many refuse to understand. I would only add national defense to your list.

It’s simple but I guess drill baby drill is the most folks can process and understand. It’s disappointing they are so easily controlled. But Us vs Them and all that.

cockerpunk 04-24-2024 06:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 12237337)
oh my, I'm not sure you understand the oil market at all. You see, oil pumped in the USA is OUR oil. If we pump more oil, the price will go down and gas prices will be back to 1050s levels. Everyone knows that. OPEC doesn't have any control over OUR oil or the price of oil.

The problem is the US doesn't drill and pump enough oil. We just need to pump more for lower gas prices. It's that simple.

dont worry, the USA is the largest producer of crude oil in the world and has been for some time: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2023/12/15/us-producers-have-broken-the-annual-oil-production-record/



but, this is dumb for several reasons:

1. why would we want to use up the limited resources we control? this is just bad strategic thinking. we should pay to use up everyone elses oil, leaving us with the safest, largest supply come a national security issue. this is like empire 101 ****.

2. the USA cannot produce this kind of oil if the price drops. its basic capitalism. unless we nationalize the oil industry, if the price of oil goes down again, we will stop producing so much. there is no such thing as cheap, domestic production with a low price for oil. unless you are talking about nationalizing the oil industry.

what conservatives want to happen, can't, unless they embrace socialism. capitalism literally wont allow it. the market will not force oil companies to pump oil, unprofitably.

wdfifteen 04-24-2024 06:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cockerpunk (Post 12237580)

but, this is dumb for several reasons:

Yes, yes it is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cockerpunk (Post 12237580)
1. why would we want to use up the limited resources we control? this is just bad strategic thinking. we should pay to use up everyone elses oil, leaving us with the safest, largest supply come a national security issue. this is like empire 101 ****.

Nationalizing the oil industry or taxing exported oil so high it takes it out of the market are the only ways I can see to do this. Neither is desirable - or going to happen.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cockerpunk (Post 12237580)
2. the USA cannot produce this kind of oil if the price drops. its basic capitalism. unless we nationalize the oil industry, if the price of oil goes down again, we will stop producing so much. there is no such thing as cheap, domestic production with a low price for oil. unless you are talking about nationalizing the oil industry. What conservatives want to happen, can't, unless they embrace socialism. capitalism literally wont allow it. the market will not force oil companies to pump oil, unprofitably.

They mothballed some Bakken fracking wells last year when the price dropped into the 70s because it cut too deeply into profits for the oil companies.
Of course, soon after they shut the wells down OPEC and Russia cut production to get the price back up over $80. They mess with the oil market for political reasons.

I've read that it takes a price of at least $60/barrel for tight (fracked) oil to be profitable. Oil from shale is estimated to need $150 to $200 per barrel. But we have plenty of it!
Saudi Arabia needs about $20 a barrel to be profitable, and they have hundreds of years worth of it.

We are playing a losing hand and need to get off of the oil economy before foreign political manipulation of the market bites us harder.

cockerpunk 04-24-2024 06:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wdfifteen (Post 12237625)
We are playing a losing hand and need to get off of the oil economy before foreign political manipulation of the market bites us harder.

couldn't agree more. we need the green new deal because of national security, not just climate change. otherwise we fall behind, and end up enslaved to the whims of political powers that do not wish us well.

EVs are only a small component to this, like less than 30%, so IMO its not the goal in and of itself.

freedom from foreign meddling is the main reason.

1990C4S 04-24-2024 08:01 AM

Looks like we've found another divisive topic where entrenched opinions can, and will, be argued endlessly.

Shaun @ Tru6 04-24-2024 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1990C4S (Post 12237684)
Looks like we've found another divisive topic where entrenched opinions can, and will, be argued endlessly.

Not really. There are facts like oil produced in the U.S., even at all time high record levels, doesn't impact gas prices no matter how many times you chant drill baby drill and there are emotional opinions like drill baby drill chanting. It's the very foundation of the Us vs. Them culture I mentioned many pages back.

KFC911 04-24-2024 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1990C4S (Post 12237684)
Looks like we've found another divisive topic where entrenched opinions can, and will, be argued endlessly.

Just wait until a Tesla accidently shoots someone on a movie set :D

wdfifteen 04-24-2024 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cockerpunk (Post 12237634)
EVs are only a small component to this, like less than 30%, so IMO its not the goal in and of itself.
freedom from foreign meddling is the main reason.

Dishonest oil companies throwing massive amounts of lobbying dollars around are getting us mired even deeper in the likelyhood of foreign meddling. The Mountain Valley pipeline through West Virginia was approved last year. This is their sales pitch to the public:

"MVP is being recognized as a critical infrastructure project that is essential for our nation’s energy security, energy reliability, and ability to effectively transition to a lower-carbon future. With construction well underway, Mountain Valley remains committed to completing construction and flowing domestic natural gas for the benefits of energy reliability and affordability in the form of lower natural gas prices for consumers."

The only people, recognizing the MVP "... as a critical infrastructure project" are the politicians they paid off to get it approved. It is only critical to the bottom lines of the oil companies.

The part they don't mention is that the southern terminus of the Mountain Valley Pipeline is a Transco pipeline that goes - to the liquifaction and shipping plants in Louisiana where it is liquified, loaded onto LNG tankers, and shipped overseas.

Shipping natural gas from West Virginia and Pennsylvania to Europe and South Africa is not, "essential for our nation’s energy security." It's the exact opposite. Shipping it from the northern US where it is used to heat millions of houses to India and South Africa does NOT, "... benefit energy reliability and affordability in the form of lower natural gas prices for consumers." Shipping gas out of the US to foreign markets expands the market and raises domestic prices.
They lie to us and pay off our politicians to enrich themselves and try to tell us it's for our own good.
Bastages, all of them.

speeder 04-24-2024 09:31 AM

Sure glad I didn't panic sell my Tesla shares yesterday! :)


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