Best post all day.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/suppo...s/beerchug.gif

With the price of modern materials and labor, and the sheer amount of housing that has exploded in the last 50 years along every coastline, I'm not at all surprised that insurance has gotten to be insanely priced. And, the homes are no longer modest single-story ranches or summer homes... many are multi-million dollar duplexes owned by very wealthy folks. All along the east coast summer bungalows and capes have been bulldozed for McMansions.

When a house was 50K to replace, and there were many fewer ones, a storm event wouldn't break the actuarial models. Now you have very expensive to replace homes at incredible density. A relatively localized fire or storm is immediately in the billions these days. The premiums to make that work are shocking. Like $20k a year with a 100k deductible shocking.

The answer, at least for the coastlines or notoriously low-lying prone to flood areas, is going to be that you're there at your own risk. Sort of like a track day. If you can't afford to walk away from a total loss, you probably shouldn't be there. I am not immune to the difficulty or hardship of that position and what it means to those that are in these areas, but that's where we're headed. The insurance model, like so many things today, is not sustainable when you plot where it's going.

Yay Baz :) .... I didn't know you had a broken rib ... ouch!
I thought you were surfing after the storm .... a few of my college buds always went AWOL ... to Nags Head after one.

Take care...

I somehow completely missed the bit about "still nursing a broken rib."

Dude! What happened?

I may be in jail tomorrow. 9:00 curfew, my wife lands tonight at 10:30.

SmileWavy

Serious question from the gal with no electricity in her house and a soon-to-be dead phone. Why do the electrical outlets in modern cars (or at least my Camaro) only work when the car is on? Years ago there was an "acc ' setting that worked with the engine off. I loved that setting.

Idk, but I agree.

Can you beg/borrow/steal a generator?

Keyless button start? Maybe this?

Press the start button once with foot off the brake. There may be a 2nd "ON" setting so you may need to press the start button a 2nd time, no brake. Try each. It may only stay in accessory mode for 15 minutes or so.

I have a 17 Tahoe with push button start. All I have to do is press the button without touching the brake pedal and all accessories and charging ports will work.
Same thing with my Z06.

I've had a lot of luck doing the above, pushing the start button without the foot on the gas, but everytime, this girl pops out my radiator ducts and starts to sing to me:
Weird.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1728696310.jpg

Seriously though, glad everyone is more or less okay.

Someone posted the awesome weather site: https://www.ventusky.com/?p=43.3;-88.3;5&l=rain-3h

For wind layers only there is: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-86.18,28.99,2170/loc=-85.621,31.881


(a little late but)
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1728753206.jpg

Thanks, that worked.

I can buy a generator at Walmart today. What I can't buy is gas. Everyone is out.

There's a ton of gotchas like that after a hurricane. For example, my county has a boil water advisory in effect. Fine, but it's hard to boil water without electricity. (That's supposed to be restored this coming Thursday.)

You need to get one of these little table top gas grills (lots of options, and prices range from $35-150). Then you need to ensure you've got the hose and any required adapter to connect it to a 20# propane tank. Voila, no electricity required cooking, water heating, etc.... They are great for emergencies (assuming you don't have a larger grill).

https://images.thdstatic.com/product...-pe-31_600.jpg

Not sure I agree but thanks, Jack!

All covered in Shaun's thread guys:

https://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1167454-best-way-become-ambidextrous.html

Thanks...still sore but I know it is healing so just takes time.....and pain meds...:D

Not a popular conversation but you're right - it is not sustainable.

I wonder, for the insurance companies that are cancelling polices in high risk areas, even for home owners that have never filed a claim - shouldn't that home owner get all the money they have spent on premiums over the years back? That's tens of thousands of dollars (or more) that the insurance company has collected and possibly never paid out on for a given home. They should not get to keep that money if they're cancelling the policy on a home with zero claims in its history.

I hadn't kept up with that thread since the early days. Jeez, PPOTers are falling apart these days. Buncha old farts around here, I guess.

Heal up, fella!

Not how home insurance works...it is shared risk capitalistic invention from the 1950s. Shared risk and payout from a shared pool of money from those insured. It is a gamble. Vegas doesn't return your money if you bet wrong either.

Property insurance in Florida is already mostly “socialized” to use that term imprecisely.

See my post #67. Citizens, the state run “last ditch” insurer with 20% share, looks very shaky. I’ll bet its share in the highest-risk homes is much higher than 20%: look at the premium it had to pay for re-insurance (12% of coverage!). Anyway, Citizens is going to blow through its meager capital and thin reinsurance one of these days one of these days - with the ocean warming and hurricanes getting more severe and frequent, probably sooner rather than later. At that point, Citizens will impose a levy on all its policyholders to pay for the loss; if that’s not enough, it will levy all insured property owners in the state regardless of carrier. It can do that. If that’s not enough, the state will cover the rest from taxes on the whole state population. That’s “socialized”.

The other 80% is mostly with a bunch of very small private Florida insurance companies that have very thin capital and no state-backed levy power. They mostly rely on buying re-insurance; looking at a couple, seems like about half of the premiums they collect is paid out to re-insurers. Don’t know how much re-insurance they carry, but you can guesstimate it. So they exist at the mercy of the re-insurers. Re-insurers are going to jack up rates after this year, continuing the steep rate increases they’ve been doing each year. At some point, the privates will have to drop the riskier properties and send them to Citizens - more share for Citizens means more socialization. Or they will pay too much of their premium income to buy reinsurance, and go out of business, customers go to Citizens. Or they will not carry enough reinsurance, and go bust in the same hurricane that busts Citizens.

As said above, the risks simply don’t work any more. Say house worth $500K, to rebuild to modern code plus replace contents costs $600K, frequency and severity of hurricanes is increasing and insurers know their historical risk data no longer works but don’t know how to predict the new risk except that it is a lot higher. They are not going to be content charging 1% of replacement cost when the old 1-in-100 year storm is coming every 10 or 20 years. They’re going to charge 5% or 10%, or leave the state.

But people simply will not, cannot, pay $30-60K/year to insure their house. So either they’ll go to Citizens if political pressure keeps Citizens’ premiums low, or they’ll go un-insured. If they go un-insured, no mortgage. No mortgage, no buying/selling (or a lot less anyway).

Be really interesting to see what happens with Florida real estate - especially coastal - in the coming years. Something will change, probably very disruptively. Probably not in 20-30 years, more like 10.

Pelicans gots to know Baz is still around.:D