Risk of Natural Disaster: Does It Affect Your Decisions

[jyl]

Originally Posted by LWJ

I absolutely think about natural disasters. Too much, I am certain. In Oregon, Coastal erosion is a legit concern on many miles of the coast. Inland? Not an issue. The Tsunami conclusion about being on a spit is correct. You can all die in a quick event. I think this is good decision making.

“New finite-difference modeling along the southern Washington coast in the area surrounding Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor uses a simulated magnitude 9 earthquake event with a maximum slip of 88.6 feet (27 meters), inferred to be a ~2,500-year event, or the L1 scenario. Modeling results indicate that the first tsunami wave is projected to arrive on land along the outer coast in 15 to 20 minutes following the earthquake. Inundation depths range from 20 to 60 feet (6–18.2 meters) on the outer coast, decreasing to generally less than 10 feet (3 meters) within Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor. Current velocities from the tsunami waves locally exceed 35 knots, presenting a significant navigational hazard to the maritime community. Tsunami wave inundation is expected to continue over 12 hours and remain hazardous to maritime operations for more than 24 hours after the earthquake.” https://washingtonstategeology.wordpress.com/2018/03/26/newly-published-southwest-washington-tsunami-inundation-hazard-maps/

“this model is an excellent tool for evacuation and recovery planning," the authors said.“

What evacuation? In 10-15 min?

[Noah930]

Hopefully no paywall (there wasn't for me):

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/07/pacific-northwest-earthquake-cascadia-fault-massive-destruction

[HardDrive]

Oh yeah. When left Seattle 12 years ago, we had 2 houses. Our primary house was on a steep hill, known slide zone. The foundation has clearly been moving down hill, and the house was only 60 years old. We would have done better from a $ perspective if we had kept that house, it was in a very desirable area. But we sold, and kept our rental which is on very stable ground. For those in the area, I'm talking about Laurelhurst and Wedgwood.

[gacook]

Does it affect my decisions? Abso-friggin-lutely.

I live in Arizona, largely due to the weather. Sure, it gets hot (not THAT hot where I live) but I have zero concerns about natural disasters.

Granted, I type these words about a week after my house has been fully repainted after having a new roof put on due to a hailstorm last month...but that was a freak occurrence and was no danger.

No way could I bring myself to live in a place that could be wiped out any given "weather event."

[masraum]

Originally Posted by jyl

“New finite-difference modeling along the southern Washington coast in the area surrounding Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor uses a simulated magnitude 9 earthquake event with a maximum slip of 88.6 feet (27 meters), inferred to be a ~2,500-year event, or the L1 scenario. Modeling results indicate that the first tsunami wave is projected to arrive on land along the outer coast in 15 to 20 minutes following the earthquake. Inundation depths range from 20 to 60 feet (6–18.2 meters) on the outer coast, decreasing to generally less than 10 feet (3 meters) within Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor. Current velocities from the tsunami waves locally exceed 35 knots, presenting a significant navigational hazard to the maritime community. Tsunami wave inundation is expected to continue over 12 hours and remain hazardous to maritime operations for more than 24 hours after the earthquake.” https://washingtonstategeology.wordpress.com/2018/03/26/newly-published-southwest-washington-tsunami-inundation-hazard-maps/

“this model is an excellent tool for evacuation and recovery planning," the authors said.“

What evacuation? In 10-15 min?

If you've got a helicopter parked in your drive way and it's warmed up and ready to go... If you're at the base of a huge stone, hill and you've got a rocked sled on a track that heads to the top of the hill... Maybe if you've got one of those crazy rock climbing buggies that's all motor and tires...

[jyl]

Originally Posted by masraum

If you've got a helicopter parked in your drive way and it's warmed up and ready to go... If you're at the base of a huge stone, hill and you've got a rocked sled on a track that heads to the top of the hill... Maybe if you've got one of those crazy rock climbing buggies that's all motor and tires...

How about a water-tight bunker in the backyard. Maybe could make something from a small shipping container, very well anchored. Or excavate and pour a proper concrete bunker. The tsunami would temporarily submerge it, not sure how long, minutes not hours I would guess, and subsequent waves would do that again intermittently over the next 12 hours. Need some way to get air in and CO2 out during the periods when it’s not submerged, to keep it mostly dry inside, to see when it’s safe to come out, listen to emergency radio, and an exit that won’t be blocked by debris or sand - maybe the waves will move enough sand to bury the bunker and you have to dig out. Ideally you have a month of stores as well.

You know, I bet there is a (small) market for drop-in turn-key survival bunkers. Topic for another thread.

[3rd_gear_Ted]

Personally I'm waiting for the next Asteroid to hit me right between the eyes.

[908/930]

Yes. When looking for land to build on years ago we looked at some with a house still on it, on one of these the lower entrance door was only a couple feet above high tide, no thanks. Like building on a flood plane what can go wrong. There is possibility of an earthquake damage out here, but also possible to engineer the build to try and withstand the forces.

[john70t]

https://www.idesignarch.com/nuclear-missile-silo-converted-to-luxury-home/

[A930Rocket]

It’s never crossed my mind, but the only thing we have to worry about is hurricanes. Not much change but I can do about those. There is a seismic area around Summerville, which is just west of Charleston.

When we lived in Westport, Connecticut, the high school was next to an abandoned Minuteman or Nike radar/missile facility. I’m not sure when it was active, but there were houses all around it. I guess live there wasn’t a problem, until a missile arrived.

[red 928]

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by 3rd_gear_Ted

Personally I'm waiting for the next Asteroid to hit me right between the eyes.

I'm just gonna duck behind Ted and hope for the best...

[dad911]

Originally Posted by id10t

Much prefer our hurricanes to anything else anyone deals with. No other disaster is nice enough to give a week or two warning before coming to crash the party. And being well inland in Florida (60-80 miles from the coast) and not near the local rivers (10+ miles away) hurricanes don't bother me much.

Same here except we are on a canal. Despite my family protesting my decision, I had plenty of time to fly to RSW, save my boat, and evacuate (saving the car) with 24+ hours to spare.

[zakthor]

West coast earthquakes are small?

There’s a big one coming to the seattle area. Seattle fault goes directly under my house. I’m expecting everything is going to be destroyed. Apparently we are overdue.

Osceola mud flow: rainier cut loose and made a debris flow that reached lake Washington and Peugeot sound 5600 years ago.

WRT earthquakes this paper was pretty interesting. South beach Oregon they matched tree rings to a tsunami recorded in Japan. Whole valley in coastal Oregon was inundated. Apparently has a lot to do with the shape of the earthquake and of the ocean floor at the coast.

https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/1971/2021/

Says at south beach to expect run up heights of 17 meters.

We have a place on the water up north at an altitude of 35 feet but the shore there is deep and steep, the tsunami is expected to roll right past but if there’s a big one I’ll be driving/biking/running away up a nearby mountain.

[jyl]

So I went to that area this weekend. I am skeptical of the tsunami inundation model map. The gray areas (supposedly won’t be inundated) are where the “tsunami evacuation” signs point you to. I drove up there. It didn’t look that high above sea level. My phone said 25 feet. I think the whole spit is likely to be inundated and everyone drowned. It was a pretty area, but there is no way in hell I’d live there, even part-time.

[jyl]

And I don’t know if the inundation maps account for expected height change of the ground. I’ve heard the edge of the PNW coast is expected to violently move west and drop, the link zakthor provided suggests -2 to -4 meter elevation drop along the coast.

[jyl]

The 2004 (?) Indian Ocean tsunami killed something like 250,000 people in eleven countries.

[Baz]

I live in paradise right now - so I'm good.

However.....some day.......