Army Recruiting problems

[fintstone]

I hate to break the sad news to you liberal supporteres of the "modern minutemen" terrorists in Iraq, but Army recruiting is turning up...and the other services are once again ahead of their recruiting goal.

Washington Times
July 9, 2005

Army Recruiting Turns Up
By Jack Kelly

The Army slightly exceeded its recruiting goal for June, ending a four-month slide. In February, March, April and May, the Army fell some 7,800 recruits short of its goal.

Only the Army has had serious recruiting difficulty. The Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps are ahead of recruiting goals.

Summer typically, is the peak recruiting time, so the Army may reduce its shortfall somewhat before the fiscal year ends Sept. 30. But it is very unlikely to close the gap entirely.

People on the left assert the Army’s recruiting woes spell doom for the U.S. mission in Iraq, and for the All Volunteer Force. Retired Army Lt. Col. James Carafano says such fears (or in the case of the hard left, hopes) are overblown.

"If you are missing your goals year in and year out, you have problems, but it’s not an immediate crisis," said Col. Carafano, who now analyzes military manpower issues for the Heritage Foundation. This is especially so because re-enlistments have been higher than programmed.

But if the Army’s poor recruiting this spring isn’t a sign of incipient calamity, it is indicates clearly a powerful limitation.

I am among those who believe that to most effectively prosecute the war on terror, the Army should be larger by the equivalent of two divisions. This won’t happen. Recruiting reforms can — and probably will — ameliorate the present shortfall. But with the economy as strong as it is, it’s most unlikely the Army could be expanded by much.

Forget about the draft. It’s as obsolete a military instrument as the horse cavalry. Our generals know our military is as good as it is chiefly because it is all volunteer. They know that even if Congress voted tomorrow to reinstate conscription, it would take nearly a year for a draft to produce an additional soldier. And they know Howard Dean will become a Republican before Congress votes to reinstate the draft. Its only advocates are a handfull of ultraliberal Democrats who want to relive the glory days of the antiwar protests of the 1960s.

To improve Army recruiting, we could pay our soldiers more, put more recruiters on the job and/or lower standards. The Army, wisely, has rejected the third course.

If Congress approves, maximum enlistment bonuses will double, to $40,000. More recruiters could make a difference, Col. Carafano said. "What people tend to forget is that before Iraq, things were going so well that we were pulling people out of Recruiting Command."

What recruiters tell prospective recruits may also make a difference, said retired Army Maj. Donald Sensing, whose son is a Marine lance corporal.

Though they have suffered, proportionately, threefold the Army’s casualties, the Marines meet their recruiting goals.

His son chose the Marines over the Army because the Marines appealed directly to his patriotism, while Army recruiters talked of job training and pizza parties, Maj. Sensing said.

"The problem is, I think, the Army’s recruiting strategy with its heavily civilianized marketing influences," Maj. Sensing said. "At least the Marines don’t hide what they’re about."

Being involved in a protracted war has to dampen recruiting. But it’s likelier the strong economy is the greater culprit. The Army last failed to meet its recruiting goal six years ago. There was no war then, but the economy was strong.

Recruiting is harder because many parents won’t let their children talk with Army recruiters, said Maj. Gen. Michael Rochelle, commander of Recruiting Command.

Parental concern for the safety of their sons and daughters is understandable. But there is another group of "influencers" whose behavior borders on sedition. Any high school or college that denies military recruiters access to campus should lose all its federal funding immediately. Any high school or college that does not expel students who disrupt recruiters at job fairs should lose all federal funding immediately.

In his speech on Iraq from Fort Bragg, President Bush said, "There is no higher calling than service in our armed forces." Web logger "Tiger-hawk" said that should be the start of a national campaign to support military recruitment.

Perhaps such a campaign could embarrass the Me Generation parents into being as patriotic as their sons and daughters.

Jack Kelly, a syndicated columnist, is a former Marine

[speeder]

The economy must be sucking worse than I thought.

[fintstone]

Check the economic numbers....some of the best in many years.

[Moneyguy1]

I would expect some improvement in recruiting..It is the first month since graduation. I think this blip occurs on a regular basis.

BUt I could be wrong...

[fintstone]

Goals that they have to meet already factor that in.

[CamB]

If you give me $100 for several months, and each time I give you $90 back, are you gonna be happy when in the 5th month I give you $110 back?

Like Bob said, one month isn't a conclusion.

[fintstone]

First of all, that is not what Bob said. Secondly, your analogy is faulty. It depends on how you set your goals. For example, if your goals are quite low during the school year (a reasonable assumption)..and your goal for Mar, Apr, and May is 5000 per month and you get 4000...and your summer goals are 20000 per month...and in June you get 25000...You would indeed be happy.
Note the other services have all exceeded their goals ....already. Of course, all the article claimed was that the Army trend was turning up...which is correct..and good since the Army had reported reduced its recruiting efforts due to a previous glut of recruits.

[CamB]

The Army slightly exceeded its recruiting goal for June, ending a four-month slide. In February, March, April and May, the Army fell some 7,800 recruits short of its goal.

Only the Army has had serious recruiting difficulty. The Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps are ahead of recruiting goals.

Summer typically, is the peak recruiting time, so the Army may reduce its shortfall somewhat before the fiscal year ends Sept. 30. But it is very unlikely to close the gap entirely.

One month doesn't make a trend, and they are only slightly ahead in June.

(edit) I don't even care, and I'd be happy if they made their budgets - I'm only reacting to your breathless (and baseless) enthusiasm.

Oh yeah, and my analogy is fine, if your goal was to give me $100 and get $109 back every month.

[jyl]

As far as I can tell, the reason the Army beat its June quarter recruiting goal is because that goal was lower than for previous months [edit: I originally said "it lowered that goal" but after thinking about it, I don't have any evidence for that, only suspicions].

Here is a blog article on the topic http://inteldump.powerblogs.com/posts/1121121653.shtml and an excerpt from the blog:

But what the monthly numbers don’t say is that the Army’s June goal was actually the lowest so far this year, despite the fact that this month of high school graduations traditionally marks the start of prime recruiting season. As the graphic from the New York Times’ June 30th reporting shows, the number of Army June accessions, 6,157 would not have met the goal of any month to date this calendar year. And the problem looks even worse when viewed by fiscal year, the military’s actual counting period. To date, the Army has managed to attract 47,121 new soldiers out of a stated requirement for 80,000. With just three months remaining, that means the service must bring in approximately 11,000 men and women each of the next three months, almost twice the June goal.

I don't know if this blog is accurate, but it is the best data I could find in a quickie search.

Whether one is on the left or the right, the recruiting problems at the Army are a real concern. I don't think it is either something to be covered-up and denied, or something to be pleased about.

I have been thinking lately that maybe we should bring back the draft. This is probably a topic for another thread, but here is what I am thinking. Currently it may be easy for some part of the American population to dismiss the casualties in Iraq since the soldiers volunteered for it and the large majority of American families know their kids will never serve anyway. For quite a large part of the population, the casualties are "someone else's problem".

Perhaps a draft would make more Americans pay close attention to how the military is being used, because it will potentially be their own kid in harms' way. I understand the concerns that a draftee Army may be of lower-quality than an all-volunteer force, but perhaps the answer is to select the highest-quality of the draftees for service - to have more of the Harvard-bound kids serving.

Crazy idea? Stupid reasoning? I'd like to hear any thoughts.

Oh, here is another article, from the AP, that gives somewhat more information.

Date Posted: June 30, 2005

WASHINGTON, (AP) -- The Army has exceeded its recruiting goal for June after four months of shortfalls, Pentagon officials said Wednesday.

Still, the service is far behind its annual goal of 80,000 recruits.

Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a town-hall meeting of Pentagon personnel that the recruiting picture had improved.

"I will tell you that, for the month of June, United States Army active recruiting is over 100 percent of its goal, which is a turnaround from where they've been in the last several months," he said. "So there's a bit of good news in here, and we'll see how it works out the rest of the year."

Pentagon officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the Army has not formally announced its numbers, said the Army Reserve also met its recruiting goal in June.

The Army's goal for its active-duty force June was 5,650 recruits; so far, more than 6,150 signed up, the officials said, citing preliminary statistics from recruiting stations.

The Army Reserve hoped to sign up 3,610; it has barely exceeded that goal, the officials said.

There were no figures available for the Army National Guard, which is also well behind its annual goal.

The active-duty Army is still 7,800 recruits behind its year-to-date goal. The service hoped to recruit 80,000 into its ranks between Oct. 1, 2004, and this Sept. 30.

The Army also missed its monthly targets in April, March and February. Each month was worse than the one before. In February it fell 27 percent short; in March the gap was 31 percent, and in April it was 42 percent.

In May, the Army fell about 25 percent short of its target of signing up 6,700 recruits. The gap would have been even wider but for the fact that the target was lowered by 1,350. The June target was not lowered, officials said.

The Army Reserve is more than 2,350 behind its year-to-date goal. Reserve forces throughout the military have been missing recruiting goals.

Pentagon officials attributed the increase in recruits to the end of the school year. The summer months are typically when the services draw the most interest. The higher goals in the coming month reflect that.

[kach22i]

Follow the money they say.........are the bonuses any larger this year?

http://www.goarmy.com/benefits/money.jsp#Bonuses?hmref=qu

Qualified applicants who enlist for two or more years in any active Army Military Occupational Specialty may receive one of the following bonuses for civilian education:

* Bachelor's degree - $8,000
* Associate or two-year degree - $7,000
* High school graduates with 60 or more college semester hours - $6,000
* High school graduates with 30 to 59 college semester hours - $3,000

* Qualified applicants who enlist for three or more years in any MOS are eligible for at least $5,000.
* Qualified applicants who enlist for four or more years in the active Army may receive combined bonuses up to $20,000.
* Qualified applicants who enlist for three or more years in a high-priority MOS may receive combined bonuses up to $20,000.
* Qualified applicants who enlist for three or more years in a priority MOS may receive combined bonuses up to $10,000.
* Qualified applicants who enlist for two years may receive combined bonuses up to $6,000.

Some jobs in high demand with bonuses may include:

* Fire Support Specialist (13F)
* Explosive Ordnance Disposal Specialist (89D)
* Petroleum Supply Specialist (92F)
* Cannon Crewmember (13B)
* Field Artillery Tactical Data Systems Specialist (13D)
* Multiple Launch Rocket System Crewmember (13M)
* Crypto Linguist-Analyst (98X)
* Food Service Operations (92G)
* Motor Transport Operator (88M)
* Field Artillery Firefinder Radar Operator (13R)
* Cavalry Scout (19D)
* Satellite Communications Systems Operator-Maintainer (25S)
* Special Forces Candidate (18X)
* Infantryman (11X)
* Air Defense Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence Tactical Operations Center Operator/Maintainer (14J)