Definition: Bubble...

[pbs911]

Two words, humidity and hurricane.

I lived through Iniki, and many other tropical storms in Hawaii. I found the 100% humidity in Hilo enjoyable, and the flying cockroaches and oversized bugs and poisonious toads that found their way into the house never really bothered me.

pbs, I don't know where you plan to relocate, but I recall seeing a quote from a developer in Naples, FL. I believe his words were something like "the condo market has totally collapsed." FL is going to be in major pain, and the insurance debacle is not helping, either.

I'm starting in West Palm Beach. The crash of the condo market is being followed by the crash of the SFH housing market. the Florida market is much more vunerable do to the seasonal inhabitants and some recent legislation imposing premiums on out of state home owners. It it didn't sell by late April, its likely going to sit on the market until next December. I am positioning myself to purchase at least one property in October. Throughout Florida developers are cutting 25% of the sales price on new homes. The average homeowers are having to follow. The collapse of the market is one of the main factors Florida looks like the place to be.

I hate to say this but in Florida I've experience more prejudice than in California.

Sounds like Hawaii where I was often the last one helped and often ignored because I was white.

[Superman]

Then "bubble" also applies to the stock market. Isn't it true that stock selling prices outstrip the present value of it's expected earnings stream? A share of stock has an intrinsic value. It represents a string of expected future earnings. Paying more than that is pure gambling. Pure speculation. And you're betting on something being even more overvalued in the future than it is now.

[tabs]

Originally posted by motion
Say what? Everything I've read points to a 15% gain last year here in SoCal. My neighborhood saw 20%.

Just TRY and get that 20% increase....remember yur statistics are yesterdays news...I hated to say that, as I am a believer in knowing your history....also everything everywhere just doesn't collapse at the same time in RE, it is rather a rolling effect...

[rrsrsr]

Originally posted by Superman
Then "bubble" also applies to the stock market. Isn't it true that stock selling prices outstrip the present value of it's expected earnings stream? A share of stock has an intrinsic value. It represents a string of expected future earnings. Paying more than that is pure gambling. Pure speculation. And you're betting on something being even more overvalued in the future than it is now.

Correct. Right now I would say stocks are reasonably valued.

S&P 500 earnings have risen something like 200% over the past 5-6 years, while stock prices have only increased 1% or 2%.

In other words 5-6 years ago stocks were extremely poor value... priced waaay above historical averages and if you bought then it would have been based on the gamble that they would become even more expensive for what they are.

[tabs]

Some Stock Market Economists/Analysts...believe the Market is 25% UNDERVALUED....Chart on chart 2006 looks to be an exact duplicate of the 1934 Chart....

From my sources it looks to be about 10% undervalued and 12,000 on the DOW looks achieveable by years end.

[turbo6bar]

Ravi Batra on bubbles

[RoninLB]

difference of opnion makes a market.

[tabs]

I live in the FASTEST town for RE appreciation and in the fastest appreciating zip code in that town.

[motion]

I dunno, Tabbie..... http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/14/real_estate/NAR_fourth_quarter_sales/index.htm

[pbs911]

What goes up ridiculous fast, usually comes down first. Here is CNN's 2006 list of most over valued cities.

CNN places Vegas at 38% over valued.

Overall I would say Florida and California tie for the win for the fastest appreciated homes.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

I always get my financial data from CNN. . .





j/k. I do agree with that though - I have a couple buddies in Vegas and neither of them can afford housing either and feel quite definitely priced out of the market and simultaneously that it's poised for a crash. Asking prices on properties I've seen there seem disproportionately high as well.