RE crash 'will get much worse before it gets better'

techweenie · techweenie's Garage

Top investor sees U.S. property crash
Wed Mar 14, 2007 12:59PM EDT

By Elif Kaban

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets.

"You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York.

---------full article-----------

http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USL1470530620070314

the · 03-17-2007, 08:27 AM

I agree.

This will certainly be a disaster, rippling through the entire economy.

And I think there's a good chance that this will the biggest, deepest economic disaster of our generation.

RoninLB · 03-17-2007, 02:53 PM

good article.

He's been saying a major re crash for awhile.

Alantic · 03-17-2007, 03:08 PM

... I'll be able to afford a house !

Sorry for those who loose, but it's a BUBBLE, which means it isn't good for a healthy economy either !

RoninLB · 03-17-2007, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Alantic
... I'll be able to afford a house !

Sorry for those who loose,

cash might be king again?

Screw the speculator. If the seller lives in the house he can trade for similar price and maybe pay less cap gains.

techweenie · techweenie's Garage

I was a homeowner through a 35% price drop in the early 90s. Didn't affect me at all, since I had no real interest in selling.

john70t · 03-17-2007, 06:58 PM

Wow. Would you look at that! Greenspan, then Bernanke, kept the US economy artificially pumped up on the equivalent of horse steroids while "fixing" "our" problems in the middle east.

What, we gotta pay for it? No way dude!

the · 03-17-2007, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by john70t
Wow. Would you look at that! Greenspan, then Bernanke, kept the US economy artificially pumped up on the equivalent of horse steroids while "fixing" "our" problems in the middle east.

Yup.

Greenspan keeping rates so low for so long to allow the bubble to grow to astronomical proportions (while RIDICULOUSLY denying that any real estate bubble even existed!) was criminal and is going to cause a lot of pain for a lot of people.

on2wheels52 · on2wheels52's Garage

"What Alan Greenspan says about intrest rates don't cut no ice with me. You want the loan at 180% or not?"
Jim

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

Quote:

Originally posted by Alantic
... I'll be able to afford a house !

Sorry for those who loose, but it's a BUBBLE, which means it isn't good for a healthy economy either !

Don't count on it unless you have about $100k in liquid assets and an 800+ FICO. Lenders won't be interested in looking at anyone else before long.

Flatbutt1 · 03-18-2007, 01:27 PM

Well I suppose I can just watch the parade go by. My house is all but paid for(of course I no longer have a tax deduction) but re-sale doesn't worry 'cause the next time I move the only thing going into a box is ME!

the · 03-18-2007, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sammyg2
We here at pelican have been talking about the big bad terrible real estate crash for 2 years now. Only thing is, it hasn't happened yet, at least not where I live. House prices are up about 5% from last year.

Lat year there was a poll here and a whole bunch of people were predicting a 20% drop in prices. What happened to that?
Is Orange County really that much different than the entire rest of the country?

do you have stats for that?

the stats that I've seen for year over year sales prices show most of orange county, ca zip codes down around 20% already.

the · 03-18-2007, 03:31 PM

I typed in "Orange, CA" into Zillow, zoomed into what looks like a central area of the City of Orange (off what looks like Chapman Blvd), and picked one house at random (2737 Burly Ave, Orange, CA 92869), this is what it shows:

the · 03-18-2007, 03:37 PM

"As of November, the median sales price of an Orange County home is down about 7% from its all-time high of about $729,000 set in April, according to the California Association of Realtors."

http://www.ocbj.com/industry_article_pay.asp?aID=15961659.71767802.140 8251.5439366

the · 03-18-2007, 03:44 PM

Link:

http://www.ocbj.com/industry_article_pay.asp?aID=15961659.71767802.140 8251.5439366

Dantilla · 03-18-2007, 04:47 PM

Though I earn my income from real estate, I'm not worried. I'm not buying "The market", I'm simply buying one property at a time, and looking at it's potential as an individual piece of property.

Whatever the market does as a whole, there are always bargains that come along occasionally. A house that that needs "lipstick and nail polish" usually has potential for profit on its own, no matter what is going on around it.

I'm buying some commercial stuff right now, and in a bit my time should be freed up a bit, and I may start looking for fixer-uppers again, just for fun.

techweenie · techweenie's Garage

Quote:

Originally posted by sammyg2
but at least in Orange country THERE IS NO real estate crash. There isn't even a bubble.

What color is the sky on your world?

Drew001 · 03-18-2007, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sammyg2
Yes there are more houses on the market. yes it takes longer to sell a house now. Yes there are alot of bad loans out there just waiting to be defaulted on, but at least in Orange country THERE IS NO real estate crash. There isn't even a bubble.

Right now, the economy is doing well. Unemployment is low, inflation seems in check and the stock market has been solid except for some volatility in the last week or so - these are the reasons why the recent housing slump hasn't affected the overall economy much.

After the 2001 recession, the delinquency and foreclosure rate of subprime adjustable rate mortgages rose to 10%. Today, we are at about 5.6%, but we also have twice the number of subprime adjustables out there.

If we go into a recession, the housing market will probably ensure one of the largest downturns in our history, IMO.

sammyg2 · 09:02 PM

You just proved your own statement wrong.
That house you picked (at random) is down to $668k from $680k.
Thats what, about 2%? Where's the 20%? it doesn't exist, no matter how much you would like it to. The sky just is not falling. That house you picked is old town orange, where many of the houses are close to 100 years old. Kind of neat but not typical of Orange, and certainly not typical of Orange county where the median price is well above those numbers.

Also, your second quote says that "As of November, the median sales price of an Orange County home is down about 7% from its all-time high of about $729,000 set in April, according to the California Association of Realtors."

OK, so what? You are comparing last November to Last April. What's your point? Comparing spring to late fall/winter is also silly, seasonal price fluctuations happen everywhere, even in sunny California. Prices are typically a little lower in the winter than thay are in spring or summer. That cannot accurately be used to indicate a market trend beyond the seasons.

I was comparing this March to last March.

Twist, twist, twist.

BTW, your fitst link is no good and the second requres I subscribe. Aint gonna happen.

turbo6bar · 03-19-2007, 05:13 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by sammyg2
We here at pelican have been talking about the big bad terrible real estate crash for 2 years now. Only thing is, it hasn't happened yet, at least not where I live. House prices are up about 5% from last year.

Deductive reasoning allowed some to see the faults in housing, but it doesn't enable one to predict the future or time the market.
jurgen