Thinking of buying a Hybrid? Think again.
 

This may just be news to me, but I guess back in January, California stopped giving out those stickers for the rear quarter panel/bumper area. The one that allows you to use the Carpool lane alone. They feel there are to many being used. :confused:

WASN'T THAT THE WHOLE POINT!

I'm curious to know if the salesmen are telling people this. I would go ballistic if I was not told.

The fact that the California sticker program is over is well known by people shopping for hybrids. So, this was news late last year and maybe in January, but not now.

The California sticker was hardly the "whole point" of getting a hybrid. Lots of hybrids are, and were, sold in states other than California.

And in California, only the Prius and maybe a couple other models were eligible for the stickers. Even pre- Jan, there were plenty of Priuses in the Bay Area (where I used to live) without the stickers; the owners didn't see the need to get the sticker.

Well I sure as hell wouldn't be buying one for looks or to "Save the Planet" http://forums.pelicanparts.com/suppo...leys/drink.gif

There WERE two good reasons.

1. Save money on gas. (Money)
2. Able to drive in the Carpool alone. (Time)

# 1 was pushing it because of the higher cost of purchase/money saved on gas ratio was not that great. It takes years for the average driver to recoup the difference.

Now I'm just not interested. :cool:

I just ordered a Camry Hybrid, I'll take delivery in December or January. One of my brother in laws works for Toyota USA and is saving me about $5k over what dealers are asking. So I'm not paying the dealer markup for the car or the hybrid option. That will improve my ROI on the car over time. The 40 to 50 mpg is what interested me and it runs on regular. I think gas will always ratched up, maybe a few dips, but always up. I don't care about the carpool sticker. But I think that CA will change on the stickers cause someone will raise a challenge that under the equal protection clause of the state constitution, they will be denying me something that someone else is entitled to do. They already extended the availability once.

Another thing that was pointed out to me is that the gas motor only runs about 1/2 the time, therefore, in theory it should last about twice as long.

They won't extend the availability again as it has been having an adverse effect on traffic flow in the HOV lanes. I would rather have an electric car, would work better for my purposes. Maybe I'll call Otto up in Oregon and get some info on doing a 914 electric.

Plus the program is only good until 2008 from what I understand - after that the stickers are no good. I believe there is talk of an extension to the program...

Originally I was totally against it and had I been given the opportunity to vote on it I would have voted no. Now I'm not sure how I would vote but I do think the Hybrids like the Prius and Civic which are pretty much the only eligible cars are very good cars. We have a Prius (2005) and it has been one of the best cars I've ever had.

Reliable, good on gas, comfortable and capable. The cargo capacity is nearly that of the Xterra we traded in. It is easy to fold down the rear seats to make room for more stuff and it fits 4 adults pretty darned well. We regularly get nearly 50mpg and we also do have the stickers which are very useful. They didn't really cause us to get the car nor would the lack of them stop us from keeping it.

It's just shy of a Camry in size but definitely bigger than a Corolla. We also did not pay any premium over the sticker price of the car when we bought it. There was no negotiation of course but there was no demand surcharge. We did have to get on a waiting list but we weren't in a hurry and waited half the time they told us we would (planned I'm sure).

I wouldn't hesitate to buy another and we've thought about it seriously.

Forget the hybrids - small diesels rule the roost here just now.

65mpg is becoming the norm - with performance a hybrid could never think of.

I'm sure some have lower emissions than the hybrids also.

What's holding them back in the US?

Get a motorcycle. All carpool lane, all the time.

Hugh,
My wife has been driving a Camry Hybrid for about 8 months and it seems to be reliable so far, but the best we've ever gotten is about 38-39 mpg on a long trip. The Prius should be closer to 50 mpg. The Camry is a nice and quiet cruiser, but at around 3800 lbs. and a CV slushbox, it has pretty tame driving manners.

Sherwood

That theory works only if the theory about 'start-up' being the primary cause of engine wear is wrong.;)

Accelerated wear during engine startup refers mainly to cold starts. If an engine is already up to operating temperature, periodic shutdown and startup shouldn't be a problem. However, depending on the operating conditions, the gasoline engine in a hybrid may take longer to warm up. For this reason, start and stop driving in a hybrid isn't suggested.

Sherwood

hmmm... oil pressure goes to zero. Higher thermal cycling...

Yeah, you make a good point about slower warm-up potential -- that can't be good for emissions (Cat Convrt) or the exhaust life (water condensation).

Manufacturers have a pretty good handle on cold start emissions. They incorporate the cat as part of the exhaust manifold so it's just a few inches away from the very hot exhaust port - not 3 feet away as in older cat systems. Double wall exhaust manifolds also keep high exh. temperatures into the cat. Condensation is still an issue with cold starts, but corrosion is mitigated somewhat by using stainless steel exhaust components.

Sherwood

Yeah, but what about the electric motor? And the sophistocated connections between the gas and electric systems? There are less mechanics familiar with that technology, and it will probably cost more to maintain in the long run to have a hybrid vehcile serviced than it's gas-only counterpart.

Oh, and if your goal is to buy a hybrid to save gas, keep in mind that it will take 10-15 YEARS to make up the difference, given that on average hybrid powered cars cost roughly $5000.00 more than a comprable gas powered vehicle. If you do the math, you'll see how the hybrid car won't save you much (if any) money in the long run.

As stated, the small diesel car rules the roost now. I suspect in the near future, the biodiesel will be the short term answer, and once they figure out how to efficiently make and bottle hydrogen, the hydrogen fuel cell powered car will be the answer.

My $0.42,
-Z-man.

The Prius has an excellent reliability record, with some having racked up >300K miles, so the Toyota engineers appear to have thought of the longevity issues you guys are discussing from your armchairs. Add the available 7-year warranties, and I am not worried about long-term cost of ownership. Well, if I were planning to keep my 2007 Prius for 20 years, maybe - but who is?

The current small diesels seem like a great idea, assuming emissions (particulates) can be reduced. I think the MPG figures on the small diesels that are being reported from Europe are a bit misleading, since those are truly "small" cars (e.g. a Peugeot 2-series is significantly smaller and less equipped than a Prius) and our UK friends are using Imperial gallons. But regardless, small diesels get great MPG.

They have gotten nowhere in the US because the European manufacturers who make small diesels either are not in the US or haven't bothered to import those models to the US. Also diesel fuel is not tax-advantaged in the US as it is in much of Europe (here, diesel is often more expensive than petrol) and is not widely available.

I'd like to see someone combine diesel with battery (diesel hybrid), and really market it in the US. For that matter, I'd like to see someone really market a diesel (non-hybrid) in the US. The more fuel-saving options that we have in the US, the better.

Hydrogen, fuel-cell, etc - all promising, AFAIK the biggest issue is distribution infrastructure. I won't buy a [insert technology here] car, as my primary vehicle, unless I know that I can get refueled in every tiny Podunk town in the USA.

I'm still mildly interested, but not bowled over by the Prius. Evidentially, they really don't pay for themselves until the 7th year of ownership with a lot of driving. This is also why the dealer doesn't push the Prius' lease program. In fact, the dealer flat out says the lease program is awful for the Prius.

In all actuality, I would like to hold off on anything like a Prius - and instead continue to drive my gas sucking (but paid off) SUVs, until the new crop of small turbo diesels come out in the next two years or so.

I hope CA. will get them. Though I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't as the prevailing ignorance here about diesels dates back to the 1970s and '80s Mercedes - many of which are still running, BTW.

diesel emissions are bad for you.

http://www.lungusa.org/site/pp.asp?c=dvLUK9O0E&b=36089

One word answer - Perception.

Like Steve said, the general consensus over here is that deisels are dirty, smelly and all that soot is bad for you. However, I suspect that this is based on observation of big trucks with their 16 liter diesel engines spewing out smoke when the truck driver sticks his foot down. I tend to think that passenger car diesels have moved on a very long way in the last ten or fifteen years. I may be wrong, but I think that the european diesel fuel and the super efficient turbo diesel engines actually run quite clean. Maybe the fuel is slightly different between Europe and the USA? But I don't think you tend to see horribly smokey diesels over there.
Anyone know for sure?

I drive a 2007 Ford Escape hybrid as my work vehicle. Decent enough gas mileage, and a very smooth ride (can't even tell that the vehicle is on while idling). However, the fit & finish of the vehicle is HORRIBLE. Everything feels cheap and fragile in the vehicle, and more than one small trim pieces have fallen off. I'm certain not all manufacturers have this problem, and I'm sure its not limited to hybrids. But for a new vehcile to start exhibiting cosmetic flaws within a year of purchase would keep me away from purchasing or reccomending to anyone.

VA let hybrids use the HOV lanes up until recently. Those registered before the deadline were grandfathered in and can still use them. But it really defeats the purpose. Are HOV lanes there for encouraging carpools to save gas or reduce traffic? If for saving gas, then I guess hybrids are fine. But why no turbo diesels? If for reducing traffic, then all cars should have to have 2-3 people in them to use HOV. What's the point of letting hybrids use HOV when the vast majority of them do so with no passengers? When my lady and I commute in her MINI we are conserving more gas and reducing traffic more than any hybrid with just a driver in it. And when we ride my bike together, we beat even the hybrids with passengers.

A Camry starts at ~$18,500 and a Prius starts at ~$20,950.

They are close to the same cargo and passenger space.

20950-18500= 2450 difference

I didn't even look at features to see if the base models were equal in those - I'm assuming they are. The base Prius has a CD/Stereo, power everything and keyless entry.

I've had a Camry, 2 in fact and rented many many corollas and they are worlds apart. The Prius is much closer to the Camry in comparison. Still 7 years is a long time to realize the savings but as long as gas prices continue to rise (as they have for the last few years) as significantly as they are then that time frame shortens with it. Purchase of one of these cars is not so shortsighted as to say TODAY I'm going to save x amount of dollars but betting that the future will hold an even higher savings due to increased prices.

In the end if I'm wrong I am supremely happy that fuel prices went down and I have had a car that I am extremely happy with - if I am right I saved some $$$ on gas and I have had a car that I am extremely happy with. I don't think I could have gotten a car that I would like as much for less than what I paid (a little over $21,000).

You are still comparing apples to oranges. Why didn't you compare a standard Camry vs. a Hybrid Camry? That's a closer comparison, don't you think?

So...let's do the math:

2008 Camry Hybrid - Automatic - MSRP: $25860.00
Gas Mileage (MPG): 40city / 48highway. (Average: 44mpg)

2008 Camry 2.4 4-cyl Automatic - MSRP: $20280.00
Gas Mileage (MPG): 24city / 33highway. (Average: 28.5)

Source for the numbers are: Kelly Blue Book

Price difference: $5580.00

Let's assume our "test driver" drives 12,000 miles a year, which is about the national average. Let's also assume a mix of driving and simply average the city/highway MPG for both vehicles (44mpg for the hybrid, 28.5 for the gas powerplant). Let's also assume $2.75 for a gallon of regular gasoline. Thus we have:

In one year's time, the Camry Hybrid will consume 273 gallons of gasoline. (12,000 miles divided by 44mpg = 272.7) At 2.75 a gallon, that's a yearly gasoline expense of $750.75.

On the other hand, the gas powered Camry will consume 421 gallons of gas. At $2.75 a gallon, that's a yearly gasonline expense of $1157.75.

So on a yearly basis, the Camry Hybrid driver is saving a whopping $407.00 a year. Given that he paid $5580.00 more for his hybrid, that means it will take him almost 14 years (13.7) before he breaks even and starts to save money due to his better gas mileage.

Now I ask you, how many folks do you know who keep their cars around for 14 years?

Not really a cost savings, is it?!?
-Z-man.

OK, here is a geeky financial analysis. Compare Prius over 5 years to Car X.

Assumptions are:
- Current gasoline price/gal
- Annual incr in gasoline price
- Miles driven/yr
- Prius MPG
- Car X MPG
- Discount Rate
Result is NPV of annual gasoline cost savings, for years 1-5.

What scenarios do you want? Here are three:

Scenario A:
- $3.00
- 10%
- 12,000
- 45
- 30
- 5%
result $2,100

Scenario B:
- $3.00
- 5%
- 10,000
- 45
- 30
- 5%
result $1,600

Scenario B:
- $3.00
- 15%
- 15,000
- 45
- 30
- 5%
result $2,900

Our situation is closest to Scenario A, so if Car X would have been the Camry, the gas cost savings would have justified paying $2,100 more for the Prius than the Camry, all else being equal.

Well, to be honest I never considered a Camry hybrid an option and really don't knwo why anyone would buy a hybrid that got less than 45mpg easily. In all fairness those are apples to apples numbers.

I'm just hung up on folks bashing the Prius which serves the "Hybrid Purpose" much better than the Camry does. There is no car that is really in between the Corolla and the Camry to compare apples to apples unfortunately.

The problem with Z-man's analysis is it assumes gasoline prices stay constant and also doesn't have a time value of money.

I ran scenarios using the conventional vs hybrid Camry, based on the MPG that Z-man posted, and got NPV of year 1-5 gas cost savings appx $5,000 if assume gasoline price +20%/yr and driving 20,000 miles/yr. That's a pretty demanding scenario - I can believe the +20% gas price (implies $5.00/gal in 2010) but I don't drive that much.

Just adding - I'm not a fan of the "hybrids" that are simply hybrid systems tacked onto an existing vehicle, like the Camry hybrid, Escape hybrid, etc. I think those are mostly marketing exercises.

Ok, so even is the cost difference is HALF of what I came up with, it would still take 7 years to make up the difference, which is still longer than what people usually keep cars for.

-Z-man.

Look, the real question is whether or not the Prius will chirp when accelerating from first to second.

The thing that cracks me up is all those people who commute big miles solo in a gas-sucking full-sized Detroit SUV or pickup.

Scenario:
- $3.00 gas px today
- 15% gas inflation
- 20,000 miles/yr
- 50 Prius highway MPG (using highway 'cuz 20,000 miles/yr has to be mostly highway)
- 20 gas hog highway MPG
- 5% discount rate
result $10,000 NPV of gas savings in years 1-5

Not to mention the difference in maintenance costs

Yeah, that's true in general. In MY case, I'm buying at dealer true cost from by Brother-in-Law who works for Toyota USA. MY premium cost for the Hybrid over the regular version is $1,700. I also have averaged right at 18,000 miles per year over the last ten years. At 24 mpg for the regular Camry versus 40 for the Hybrid, that's 750 gallons per year versus 450 gallons per year, at $3.00/gallon, that's $900/per year in gas savings, or a little under 2 years payback in MY case.

Not so fast, Hugh -- I suspect that you are comparing your dealer true cost price on the Hybrid VS. the MSRP price of the gas powered Camry. What would be your discount on the gas powered Camry? The price difference between that number and your cost for the hybrid is what would be a truer comparison, since you can get the gas-Camry at a discount price as well.

Even if your premium cost is under $2k for the hybrid, you are not the norm -- most folks don't have that they of opportunity available to them.

Are you saying that in terms of maintenance costs, a hybrid Prius is cheaper to maintain over a 5 year period vs. say, an OHV 4.6 liter Ford V8 powerplant? I can't imagine that being true...

-Z-man.

Z

No, I'm comparing my cost of a regular versus a hybrid bought from my brother in law. The dealer mark up on the hybrid is closer to 5K. So for me its a good deal, but your mileage may vary.

Absolutely. The Prius has an excellent reliability record - even among Toyotas, it is excellent. The hybrid system requires no special maintenance at all.

Fords are - well, in my experience they are not particularly reliable. The Fords I have had were crap, actually.

Those numbers are from the old way EPA tests the cars. the 2008 figures are closer to real world fuel economy numbers.

The new numbers for the Camry Hybrid is 33 city/34 highway (34 combined)
and the regular 4 cyl version is 21 city/31 highway (25 combined)

One of my non P-cars is a Highlander Hybrid, and we never could get close to the old EPA numbers, we do get better than the newly published numbers though. I know many Prius owners that get high 30's, low 40mpg vs 60 which was originally published.

But remember that lots of people who bought the Hybrids don't care about recouping their costs of the car vs fuel savings. I know that I don't care.

Besides my Hybrid, I also have a 99 Suburban Turbo Diesel which I specially ordered new.

yes, I bought the Hybrid to save gas,and paid a $3500 premium in 1999 for the diesel option in the Suburban so that I could save on fuel costs. I knew when I bought both cars that I would never recoup the fuel economy savings/price premium as we don't drive that many miles. I don't mind paying extra for options on my cars, but I hate paying extra for fuel if I know I could be saving. I always know which stations have the cheapest fuel in my area, and I track my MPG's with every tankful.

BTW, I love our Highlander Hybrid. Its well put together, fits our family of 6 plus the dog. This vehicle replaced our V8 Land Cruiser, so our fuel economy went from an average of 13 mpg per tank to 26.5mpg with our Hybrid.

Typical MPG for a Prius in mostly city driving is mid-40s mpg. Unusually bad conditions (very hilly, short trips, cold weather, etc) can get you as low as high-30s mpg. More suburban driving with fewer stoplights and more coasting can get you in the low-50s. We get roughly 45 mpg with ours, in daily driving. Freeway cruising at 70 mph is 50 mpg, more or less.

I've gotten over 65 mpg on a road trip, but was driving 57 mph and following 18-wheelers. In the other direction, dear wifey blasted all the way with the cruise control set at 75 mph and got appx 48 mpg. When I pointed out that, for the Prius to maintain 75 mph up the steeper grades, she was getting 13-14 mpg in places, she told me she couldn't care less.

Going back to the "scenarios", our Prius replaced our accursed Range Rover which gets <15 mpg in our typical driving. Over five years, I figured the Prius will save us several thousand dollars (NPV), no kidding.

your 15% gas inflation implies $5.25 gas in 5 years. Here gasoline is going down in price.

Here gas has fluctuated so much between $2.75 and $3.75that you really can't tell what the heck it is doing. I think it may be even be a strategy - make us pretty much unable to see what is happening until it's $5.

Is that not happening everywhere?

That is the best answer I have read to date!

All these (other) stupid rationalizations coming from smug hybrid owners are/have-been annoying. Alll this rot about 'saving the planet' by dragging around hundreds of pounds of heavy metal batteries . ..or the dorks with the "carbon neutral" bumperstickers on their Toyota Pious.... Yet I can certainly understand buying one to simply flip-off the gas man. ... It's like running Linux because because it seems M-soft is too damn greedy for their mediocre product. --All those rich MSFT guys... (I was going to say Apple, instead of Linux, but Jobs and co. isn't exactly in the not crazy greedy category.)

Anyway... Of course I have no Diesel, or Hybrid, and I run M-soft, but that's all because I'm cheap. I don't want to spend a dime to save a nickel. But, I could see where people would - it's a political statement. --One most of us agree with. Just don't try to pass off your hybrids as holier than thou. --that table is reserved for Apple users who stick it to the man by making Steve Jobs rich. ;)

Using similar cars (Camry Hybrid v. Camry Gas), I wonder how resale value is going to compare 5 years down the road?

The gas model will still have a long, inexpensive, trouble free life ahead of it, which will be reflected by the market in the resale value.

Will people be interested in owning the Hybrid from years 5 through 10? Is that going to be feasible, given the technology in the cars?