Depends on the transport mode and the value/size of the goods.

Haven't kept up w/ price of container from China to US but say it is $3,000 now and goes to $4,000. Suppose 3,000 items fit in container. Transp cost $1 per item, goes to $1.30. Incremental 30 cents. If item costs $60, cuts 50bp from gross margin. Can probably raise price of a $60 item to $60.30 without too much consumer fuss, that's just 1/2 of 1% price inflation.

So, math differs based on those variables.

Also depends on supply of shipping capacity for that mode. Not a shortage of container ship space as far as I know, and I think many new ships coming online in next couple years. Similarly, no shortage of Class 8 trucks and trailers, and drivers will become more plentiful if economy weakens. But for dry bulk ships, big shortage.

Also depends on how big fuel is as a cost for the mode.

Hey Tabby....I believe it was Wayne that predicted $35/barrel oil by now. Anyone with any money and brains would start buying all the distressed real estate in Ca that they can. History repeats itself and the best investment opportunity of all is unfolding now.

One question?

What business is Wayne in?

Answer...Foreign car autoparts

Hmmm don'tcha think the $$$s weakness might have an adverse effect on his biz? What went for $20 is now $30...and people think, "***** man I ain't gona pay no $30 for a $20 part!!!"

You got 3 more years at least before RE turns around....

The stock market at an all time high and is woefully overvalued....***** man the retards are pushin themselves down the stairs now!!!! I'm bummmed, I don't even get to have no more pleasure in the act of the push....fk....

Microsoft is part of the DOW 30....yep its $35 ashare....on a stock where the breakup value of the co is in the mid 40s.....so how is that over valued???? Enquiring minds want to know that one.

Oil is over $90 a barrel and the market keeps climbing higher and higher...you would think with that price level the Stock Market would be falling....is this a parrell universe or sumthin...where up is down and down is up??? 5 years ago...no 2 years ago with such news the market would have tanked 500 points...what has changed... gravity as far as I know is still working....what has changed is that there are NO OTHER viable markets to invest in that are not frought with RISK>>>RE, Bonds, Commodities... are have made their runs and are priced either at or above valuation.

The reason you have $90 oil is the fact that the SPECULATORS are betting that Turkey invades the Kurdish are of Iraq....or GW and his ranting and raving about Iran and WW3 are making are making people nervous...

Long term this is a redistribution of the wealth...the wealth is being SUCKED right out of America, and Americans are going to become a nation of have nots...For Christs sake anybody can be an American today...B of A gives illegals card cards so they to can enjoy the American dream of spending themselves into the poor house and they give em Drivers Licenses so they can go vote.... for the Liberal noooooo "PROGRESSIVE" canidates...aka as the Democrats....scum su[king thieves....

Ohhhh and Wayne is crying....."No we are in a recession." That sounds similar to the sky is falling to me....Yeah I guess from his point of view he is in a recession.....cause his biz is based on the $$$$$ and exchange rate ther of...now if he were so sharp why didn't he hedge his position so that the falling $$$$ wouldn't kill him...it could be because he isn't IBM, FORD, GM, MicroSoft or Intel...

Anyway my focus of this discussion isn't about Wayne...its really about Americans in general...Americans have long forgotten that currency valuation floats on the world markets. It goes up and it goes down according to the financial and political strength of the country. Americans currency has been so stable for so long we have forgotten that even the $$$ has risk in holding them. Now that Amerca has such a hugh debt and deficeit spending the $$$ is under pressure. The Canadian dollar a few years back was worth 75 cents on the $$$$ now it is a $1.05...hoooo haaaa....maybe we should just change the name of America to Brazil, Argentina or Mexico.....how bout $20 for a loaf of bread no try $30 wait thats not enough $50 will do it...well for now anyway...

Gotta say, Dr. L, I'm having a hard time disagreeing with anything in those last 4 posts.

Well the big joke about the $$$$ is that EVERYBODY who is anybody is HOLDING THEM IN MASSIVE QUANITIES>>>> and U all thought GW was stupid...he just financed an entire war on the backs of those holders......

you guys are worried about a recession? just wait until India and China convert from manufacturing to consumer economies. With the dollar practically valueless by then, and loans by the Chinese to cover the War in Iraq due after years of paying for Boomers, the U.S. will go through a Depression that will make October 29, 1929 seem like an early Christmas Party.

We sold out our manufacturing base and brand assets for a quick buck and cheap crap from China. All we have left is Intellectual Property to keep this country going.

will it be enough?

Only for those of us with any intellect. Which is a very small percentage of the general populace, I'm convinced.

Do you believe there could not be destruction of wealth? What was once worth $1 on paper is now only worth $0.88? Devalue the US dollar, and make equities look like a good performer. Then, everybody eats a little pie, and guess what... that filling isn't chocolate.

LOL, nicely stated.

At the end of the day, suckers like me, who have worked, lived below our means, and saved responsibly during our life to accumulate nest eggs of good 'ol US dollars, are going to take it in the rear.

So change your nest egg to euros then. Buy european government bonds or something.

+1...It will be another example of the responsible bailing out/suffering alongside the irresponsible..

I basically agree that stocks look reasonably priced relative to major asset classes, and that our society generates a continual flow of money that has to be invested somewhere.

However, that money can be invested in foreign markets. It can also be invested in hedge funds and thus partly in shorts and derivatives. It doesn't all have to go into US stocks, or into traditional long positions in stocks at all.

And even if there is a continual flow of money into the US stock market, that doesn't mean the market can't go down. 1987 is an example, so is 2000-2002.

AHHHH...Microsoft is a Brand name...Intel is a Brand Name, Apple is a Brand name that is recognized all over the world...these companies sell real products that have real value in $$$, Euros, Lbs, Yen or Yuan....or whatever brand dinero you specify...therefore those companys will keep up with inflation. If the $$$ declines those companies are worth more $$$$. thats all. So the $$$ can decline all it likes...

The guyz who take it in the a$$ are Bond holders and savings account holders that are fixed in $$$$. You make 5% on a $$$$ that is worth less tommorow than today. Or if you have stacks and stacks of $$$ in the vault...like China and Japan and Saudi...and the UK...

so, in essence, the US holds the trump card, regardless. Is it really that easy? Are the others really that stupid?

I'm starting a new company here in Canada......... selling signs to Realtors that say "Price Reduced"!


http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1193874306.jpg

When I mention the Stock Market I generally mean equities and there are numerous schemes or strategy's for investing in them. What I am trying to get at is that the equities market is where the money is to be made and where the action is at....Investing in RE as an asset class for instance is dead dead dead...at least for the next 3 years.

1987, 1994 were times when major corrections occurred in Bull Markets...the 2000-2005 period was a once in 60 year Bear Market exacerbated by 911, the ensuing malfeasance in Corporate America and ensuing witch hunt.

The 2000 Bear was truly something to behold... Now that it has worked itself out...Equities for the most part are still undervalued or there is still value to be gotten...major corporations are still announcing large buy backs of their equities...if they were over priced they would never do that.

You are going to love this one Turbo

Everytime someone trys to wise them up they get invaded.....