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-   -   Is The Recession Of 2008 Coming? (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/374907-recession-2008-coming.html)

The Gaijin 11-01-2007 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RoninLB (Post 3563876)


Thanks Ron. Interesting. And the same argument can be applied to just about anything. The state of schools, crime statistics, whatever.. We don't always appreciate when we have it good..

KFC911 11-01-2007 09:14 AM

Can't we just borrow more "stars" from China if the galaxy runs short :)

jyl 11-01-2007 11:58 AM

Impressive day in the market. :-)

targa911S 11-01-2007 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nostatic (Post 3561393)
so you're saying this isn't the time to leave my job and start a new company?

Opening a funeral home would be good. ( see thread on baby boomers)

the 11-01-2007 03:40 PM

Some interesting facts today:

1. Gold at 27 year high (first time it has broken $800 since 1980).

2. Oil at all time high ($96).

3. Dollar is now at a record low v. Euro and the Pound (Dollar down 40% from Euro in 7 years. Our dollar now worth 60 cents per Euro).

4. Case-Shiller is showing a nationwide decrease in housing prices that is a multi-decade record, and appears to be just starting.

Oh, and our GDP is 70% consumer spending. And the market tanks when rates are lowered on even the hint that it might not be lowered next time.

But hey, don't worry, be happy!

ChrisBennet 11-01-2007 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tobra (Post 3563228)
because there have been too many years of cash bonuses for stupid people to have more children.

Shaun is wrong about the intellectual property thing , because China does not honor any patents.

There is a silver lining (for us) in China's disregard for intellectual property laws - it stifles their own entrepreneurs and inventors. Why spend invest in years of work and to develop a product if it will just get ripped off by another Chinese company?
-Chris

red-beard 11-02-2007 04:01 AM

I work for a Manufacturing company. We actually make stuff, right here, in the USA. And 1/2 of our business is in the heart of Union territory, Buffalo NY.

Business is booming! We have more orders than we can handle. We are having trouble hiring enough staff to handle it all.

We sell a lot of stuff overseas. The times we do something out of the country, is generally because it makes sense to make it "locally". I can't get the parts and pieces I need to meet the EU codes, so I buy auxilluries and package our equipment in Europe for the European market. When we sell into China, we have to compete against super cheap stuff, so we have to build our "off the shelf" stuff there to compete. Our real money making engineered machines are built in the USA.

For products outside of Europe, we package the equipment in the USA. Why? Well, the labor costs are a small portion of our product, and the material costs are much lower here. I can build it cheaper in Houston than virtually any other place in the world.

My wife and I also own an export company. We sell USA made stuff to Mexico and South America. Don't buy into the "nothing" is made here. High tech, high value add, stuff is made here, everyday.

Real Estate does not make the economy. Jobs do. And we are still adding jobs. It's a freaking election year. Every Candidate is trying to say how bad things are, and that they can fix it. DO NOT BELIEVE THEM!

jyl 11-02-2007 05:39 AM

High-value goods are still manufactured in the US. In the industry I know best, tech, the high end and even mid range servers and storage are still assembled in the US w/ many components made here.

By dollar value, the high end and mid range is a relatively smaller part of the market. Same if measured by jobs.

I agree that one shouldn't put much (any) weight on political candidates' assessment of the economy. If you do agree w/ their assessments, then pay attention to their proposed solutions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by red-beard (Post 3565246)
I work for a Manufacturing company. We actually make stuff, right here, in the USA. And 1/2 of our business is in the heart of Union territory, Buffalo NY.

Business is booming! We have more orders than we can handle. We are having trouble hiring enough staff to handle it all.

We sell a lot of stuff overseas. The times we do something out of the country, is generally because it makes sense to make it "locally". I can't get the parts and pieces I need to meet the EU codes, so I buy auxilluries and package our equipment in Europe for the European market. When we sell into China, we have to compete against super cheap stuff, so we have to build our "off the shelf" stuff there to compete. Our real money making engineered machines are built in the USA.

For products outside of Europe, we package the equipment in the USA. Why? Well, the labor costs are a small portion of our product, and the material costs are much lower here. I can build it cheaper in Houston than virtually any other place in the world.

My wife and I also own an export company. We sell USA made stuff to Mexico and South America. Don't buy into the "nothing" is made here. High tech, high value add, stuff is made here, everyday.

Real Estate does not make the economy. Jobs do. And we are still adding jobs. It's a freaking election year. Every Candidate is trying to say how bad things are, and that they can fix it. DO NOT BELIEVE THEM!


Shaun @ Tru6 11-02-2007 06:00 AM

China designed, built and launched a communications satellite over the summer for Nigeria. A first for China. Reason why Nigeria went with China over US, EU or Japan? Price.

We once thought US Made Textiles were safe, then it was Apparel...now it's Satellites.

So what do we do? How do we respond? Instead of investing in our Children's Futures, a World-Class FREE broadband infrastructure and energy independence through innovation and job creation, we squander a half trillion $ on a War with $0 ROI and make our Children pay back the loans to the People that will someday crush us, have already enslaved us economically.

we need something better than the 5-minute-future-viewpoint-scare-you-into-voting-for-us Government.

We need someone with a 20-year vision in the White House.

KFC911 11-02-2007 06:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa (Post 3565372)
...We need someone with a 20-year vision in the White House.

I'd settle for someone who could see :)

The Gaijin 11-02-2007 06:34 AM

[QUOTE=Shaun 84 Targa;3565372]....the People that will someday crush us, have already enslaved us economically.
QUOTE]

I thought that was going to be the Japanese. Damn. All those years studying kanji.:mad:

Shaun @ Tru6 11-02-2007 06:48 AM

[QUOTE=The Gaijin;3565435]
Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa (Post 3565372)
....the People that will someday crush us, have already enslaved us economically.
QUOTE]

I thought that was going to be the Japanese. Damn. All those years studying kanji.:mad:

You can't compare Japan with China. One is a tiny island with limited resources, the other is the biggest country in the world with unlimited resources to exploit, a large portion of which is directly attributable to the Walmart Way: simultaneously dumping our manufacturing base in exchange for cheap goods = enslavement and a downward economic spiral.

What a wake up call it would be to our economy if for every item that is currently made in China were made in India instead. the price jump alone would gut the Middle Class and we'd have a welfare society yet seen in the U.S.

I just got Fall 08 pricing estimates in from India, Hong Kong, China Mainland, Pakistan and the Philippines.

Our country, as a whole, can't afford any other trans-industry manufacturer than China.

MRM 11-02-2007 06:56 AM

No, Silly, it was the Arabs.

The Gaijin 11-02-2007 07:41 AM

A smarter man than me said - they will get old before they get rich. The one child per family policy will be catching up with them in a big way. And after a generation of forcing this on the population, it just can't be turned off. Or turned back on as the case may be..

China does have a ready mix of willing labor, acquired skills, work ethic and an aptitude for making money - but I work in international trade too - and I see India, Vietnam and other places nipping at their heels..

And less consumption would not "gut" the middle class - it would mean less consumption of junk and less not-so-new junk at the curb.. Many folks are adapting to this lifestyle already.

Shaun @ Tru6 11-02-2007 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Gaijin (Post 3565565)

And less consumption would not "gut" the middle class - it would mean less consumption of junk and less not-so-new junk at the curb.. Many folks are adapting to this lifestyle already.

I have a less optimistic view of American spending. Met with higher prices, Americans will just go deeper in debt too keep up. Walmart is addictive.

nostatic 11-02-2007 07:50 AM

damn, guess I picked the wrong time to buy a big screen tv...

72doug2,2S 11-02-2007 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa (Post 3565579)
I have a less optimistic view of American spending. Met with higher prices, Americans will just go deeper in debt too keep up. Walmart is addictive.

I didn't know Congress shopped at Walmart. Learn something new everyday.

Shaun @ Tru6 11-02-2007 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 72doug2,2S (Post 3565643)
I didn't know Congress shopped at Walmart. Learn something new everyday.

Congress shops at the Army-Navy Store. Like we reeeeally a missile defense shield in Europe. :rolleyes: Clearest example of MIC control of government...ok, maybe the Osprey is on second thought.

sammyg2 11-02-2007 09:37 AM

Is The Recession Of 2008 Coming? No, it is not.

tabs 11-02-2007 10:09 AM

Shauny...China does not have unlimited resources to exploit....for one they have NO OIL.

China has major internal problems...the only time China does anything with regards to foreign policy is because of those internal problems. China is an inward looking society, just take a look at their history.


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