Single Stock Pick for 2008 - Page 8

Nathans_Dad · Nathans_Dad's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nathans_Dad

My personal little stock toy is FXEN. US company that drills for natural gas in Poland. It has bounced around anywhere from $4 to $13 in the last 5 years. I have bought and sold it probably 4-5 times in that period. Currently it is down in the $5s after a ho-hum year of not getting enough drilling done. Previously price has been dictated by drilling successes, shoots up when they hit and then drifts down over the next months. Now they have production coming on line so I am hoping for a more sustained rise in price. Currently holding in the $5s, would sell some if it hits $10 and look to rebuy on weakness.

Otherwise my stuff is in a variety of mutual funds, I just don't have the time to really manage a full stock portfolio...

Just FYI, FXEN closed Friday at $8.29, which would be right about a 50% profit since this post. I think there is some more upside here, there is an analyst target of $17 out there, I think that's a little optimistic. If it hits $12, I'm definitely selling some. Otherwise once it hits $9-10 I will put a stop in around $8ish and see what happens.

craigster59 · craigster59's Garage

Maybe time for an update, after the calamity lately. I think I'm back at square one.

kstar · 09-17-2008, 01:30 PM

Ask and ye shall receive!

PPOT Port as of close 09/17/2008:

I still think the PPOT Port is beating the S&P!

Pazuzu · 09-17-2008, 07:54 PM

If I was around when this thread started, I would have said Yamana gold (apparently a very bad choice), Barrick Gold (ABX), which was also a bad choice, and Silverado (pink sheets, SLGLF), a horrible choice. Since then, I've lost almost everything I had in Silverado (all of $100!! WooHoo!!) and lost about 10% in my other gold stocks, which I cashed out to buy the 911. I consider the car to be a better investment than the stocks right now

lendaddy · 09-17-2008, 08:10 PM

And I'm in the lead with my PPOT bear short fund

Hugh R · 09-17-2008, 08:14 PM

Crap! And I'm listening to you guys? I can loose money that fast without the "Brain Trusts" help.

kstar · 09-17-2008, 08:28 PM

Here's the SP, YTD:

the · 10-09-2008, 11:51 AM

How about an update?

lendaddy · 10-09-2008, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the

How about an update?

I'm fairly confident that my PPOT Short Bear Fund is in the lead

lendaddy · 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichiganMat

Time to back up the truck on AAPL, they've got plenty of room for growth.

Had to quote this one. Beep beep beep

Rot 911 · 10-09-2008, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nathans_Dad

Just FYI, FXEN closed Friday at $8.29, which would be right about a 50% profit since this post. I think there is some more upside here, there is an analyst target of $17 out there, I think that's a little optimistic. If it hits $12, I'm definitely selling some. Otherwise once it hits $9-10 I will put a stop in around $8ish and see what happens.

Sure hope you sold that back in August as it is sitting at $4.12 right now.

kstar · 10-09-2008, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lendaddy

Had to quote this one. Beep beep beep

I was making similar statements about AAPL!

But as Dylan said, "For the loser now will be later to win . . . "

I'll post the updated chart later today.

Best,

kstar · 10-09-2008, 12:24 PM

Here's the close for 10/09/2008:

YTD, SP is off 38%

Best,

competentone · 10-09-2008, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kstar

Here's the close for 10/09/2008:

YTD, SP is off 38%

Best,

Yea! My pick is winning! GSS is down the most!

Wait. Were we trying to pick stocks to buy or short?

The year isn't over yet. I just bought more GSS last week. The governments' (worldwide) printing presses are running full blast; I'm still confident that gold will skyrocket and miners like Golden Star will rebound dramatically....

....it might not be this year, but later in 2009.

the · 10-09-2008, 12:43 PM

You had the same idea I had with Yamana gold. Since you had to pick a stock to be in the contest, my only criteria was "what will do best/least worst when we are in full economic meltdown mode?" My first thought was gold.

Apparently, stock in gold mining companies does not very closely follow the price of gold! You'd think that when the price of their commodity/products goes through the roof, the price of their stock would rise, but I guess that's not the case.

lendaddy · 10-09-2008, 12:43 PM

I admit it's nothing more than my sizable gut but I still think gold will ultimately prove to be a suckers bet. It just makes so little sense to me as a wealth parking vehicle that I have to believe a new standard will emerge and people will be stuck with their shiny metal.

Anyone know what the institutional vs private ownership numbers are on gold as compared to say 50 years ago? It's been marketed so incredibly hard to Joe Blow over the last ten years or so that I get the feeling the institutions are unloading.

Hey, we all get one crackpot theory

the · 10-09-2008, 12:55 PM

I agree. I think money can be made in gold, but only because it fluctuates in price, and you'd have to somehow figure out how to buy low and sell high. Just like any commodity, I guess.

And, apparently even worse than gold, is stock in a gold mining company.

But I'm with you. I would never buy gold myself. I don't think your theory is crackpot, I think gold is for crackpots!

(Remember, during the last big "gold rush," gold was at $800 in 1980. If you bought at that time, it took almost 30 years to get back to that.

Icemaster · Icemaster's Garage

Pg

kr

competentone · 10-09-2008, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the

I would never buy gold myself. I don't think your theory is crackpot, I think gold is for crackpots!
.

You're disappointing me here -- I thought you were one of the "smarter ones" posting here.

I'm hoping you just lack an understanding of what "money" is. When you have a few minutes, I would suggest you read:

http://mises.org/story/3122

Gold is the "practical" money; there is nothing "crackpot" about it.

MRM · 10-09-2008, 05:26 PM

Compe, perhaps you can enlighten us on the definition of what "money" is. You know, what separates money from barter. If you can do that, perhaps I'll allow Tabs' to engage you in conversation.

I'll give you a hint, "money" has three properties. Name them and you'll define money. Gold is a metal. It has no inherent value. It is valuable because we place value on it. It is also one of the worst historical investments you can make. Factoring for inflation, gold has about another 50% to go before it hits its 1970s-era highs. I can tell you from personal (family) experience, that when the revolution comes and society collapses, gold has no value. After you give us a good definition of money, I'll tell you the story of the gold ingots my wife inherited that made it through the 1930s to 1980s without being spent - in the PRC.