Single Stock Pick for 2008

[competentone]

Originally Posted by MRM

Compe, perhaps you can enlighten us on the definition of what "money" is. You know, what separates money from barter. If you can do that, perhaps I'll allow Tabs' to engage you in conversation.

I'll give you a hint, "money" has three properties. Name them and you'll define money. Gold is a metal. It has no inherent value. It is valuable because we place value on it. It is also one of the worst historical investments you can make. Factoring for inflation, gold has about another 50% to go before it hits its 1970s-era highs. I can tell you from personal (family) experience, that when the revolution comes and society collapses, gold has no value. After you give us a good definition of money, I'll tell you the story of the gold ingots my wife inherited that made it through the 1930s to 1980s without being spent - in the PRC.

"Money" is what the economy chooses as money.

Read the Mises link:

http://mises.org/story/3122

As for life during the communist revolution in the People's Republic of China (I think I've explained this to you before), when a government effectively destroys the economy -- by prohibiting the use of private capital -- most traditional "monetary instruments" would have little to no value.

Money is an economic tool that allows for the indirect exchange of goods producers have created. If one exists in an economy where government edict has destroyed production, traditional goods used for money -- like gold -- could certainly have little value.

Again, rather than me restate an explanation of money similar to that provided at the Mises site, why don't you just read the explanation there.

(I know all the Keynesian arguments about money and, quite frankly, am tired of refuting arguments that have already been thoroughly refuted by the Austrian School of economics.)

[MRM]

I don't think you understand the Keynesians. Richard Nixon said we're all Keynesians now. No one disputes the underlying theory of Keyenes. It just doesn't go far enough to explain modern economics. That's where Uncle Milt and the Chicago School comes in. Austrians? No one cares about the Austrians. The only modern economists worth a phenning came from the University of Chicago School, especiatially the Rational Expectationists. If you can do an ISLM curve for me, I'll listen to your economic analysis. If not, not.

Here's the deal. Money is what money does. Money has three properties: 1) it is a store of value; 2) it is a measure of value; and 3) it is a medium of exchange.

Gold is particularly poor at anything other than storing value, and it's pretty bad at that. What are you going to do with gold when society crashes and the zombies come? Throw it at them? No one will want your gold when society crashes because they can't do anything with it. That's why I inherited ingots of gold that made it through the 1930s, WWII and the Cultural Revolution in China. Why didn't Grandpa sell it? What was he going to sell it for, he asked. There was nothing he could trade the gold for, so it sat in his dresser until his grand daughter escaped the country and his rich American decendents could do something with it. And if you're not holding gold for the day the zombies take over, why do you have it? An asset that sits in your closet collecting dust, never to be used, is no better than money lost in the market.

[Shadetree930]

Bump .... almost time for the fat lady to sing.

[lendaddy]

Originally Posted by prials

Bump .... almost time for the fat lady to sing.

Hold on, the truck is almost full of AAPL

[TyFenn]

All I can really say is OUCH!

[Shadetree930]

Quiet please! ...... Drum Roll .......


Ladies and Gentlemen! The results of the 2008 Stock Pick thread are ........

[jyl]

are we going to have a stock pick thread for 2009?

[Plavan]

Watch Amgen in 2009..... AMGN

[Dottore]

Originally Posted by Plavan

Watch Amgen in 2009..... AMGN

Why exactly?

Will it be acquired?

[Plavan]

Amgen is the only Biotech with an actual pipeline. Should be launching another blockbuster (bone builder) in late 2009, preliminary data keeps pushing the stock higher (check history/press releases). Hiring additional sales force mid 2009.

Thats all. Better outlook than most.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/inc/news/tickerredir.asp?Feed=AP&Date=20081231&ID=9480856&Symbol=AMGN

[Rob Channell]

So who had the best stock pick and what was it? From the 10/09/08 printout it looked like the best option was to stick it under your mattress where you could lose 0% instead of 20% or more.

[kstar]

Here are today's closing prices - I haven't yet done a final port based on the 2008 year end closing, but will get it out this week.

Not a very good year for anyone long just about anything.

[gprsh924]

Congrats to Lubemaster77 for picking on Exxon, because with a healthy return of -18%, he is the winner.

[lendaddy]

Originally Posted by lendaddy

Is there a vehicle to short the Pelican OT fund?

I know it doesn't count as an official entry but it's rare I get to toot my horn.

toot toot.

PPOTSBF (Pelican Parts Off Topic Short Bear Fund) +54.22%

[RWebb]

I'll give you a toot for that one

[kstar]

It's been a while since 2008, but here's the PPOT Portfolio as of the close on Friday, May 29, 2012:



FWIW, my pick was AAPL. 8D

How's that PPOTSBF doing, lendaddy?

Best To You All,

[lendaddy]

Originally Posted by kstar

How's that PPOTSBF doing, lendaddy?

Best To You All,

Well, since the original challenge was "Starting at Monday's closing price, state your single best stock pick for the 2008 calendar year."

I cashed out back then at a healthy profit, you never asked me to invest my gains

[kstar]

Very good, sir! :-)

I need to check and see how the PPOT Port. did against the S&P over the same time period. I'm guessing the S&P was a better place for capital.

Best,