3 out of 4 Americans think we are in a recession

Normy · 03-18-2008, 06:39 AM

According to a USAToday article, 76% of the people they polled think that the US is in a recession. Among the interesting things discussed in the article is the fact that not since September 1992, two months before George H.W. Bush lost re-election, have so many Americans said the economy was in such bad shape.

Here's the link: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2008-03-17-economy-poll_N.htm

What's more, Alan Greenspan, the previous head of the Federal Reserve bank, said Monday that current financial problems could likely be seen as "the most wrenching since the end of the second world war".

The only good thing about all this? It is a fact that no political party has ever retained the Presidency during a recession. Hmm....what's that I smell? Could it be....Republican blood in November's elections?

N!

cstreit · cstreit's Garage

We have not yet begun to recess I think...

Moses · 03-18-2008, 07:04 AM

If 3/4 Americans think the moon is made of cheese, that doesn't make it true.

Definition: A recession is defined to be a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth.

We are not yet in a recession. It seems likely that we will be, but we are not.

the · 03-18-2008, 07:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moses

We are not yet in a recession. It seems likely that we will be, but we are not.

What makes you think that? I'd be curious to hear.

Of course, we won't know whether we are currently in the first quarter of a recession until after the 1Q 2008, and the 2Q 2008 numbers come out. But IMO, it seems very likely that the 1Q 2008 GDP number is going to be negative.

I base that on the 3Q 2007 and the 4Q 2007 numbers.

3Q 2007 was 4.9%.

4Q 2007 declined quite a bit, to 0.6, narrowly avoiding going to a negative number.

I do not think things have improved, will continue to trend down, and 1Q 2008 will be lower than 4Q07. There isn't much room for it to be lower, and NOT be a negative number. And it will not improve through the first half of the year.

So, when we look back at the end of the year, we will see that we are indeed currently in a recession, is my guess.

artplumber · 03-18-2008, 07:25 AM

Moses offered the definition of recession in addition to the statement not yet in one, but likely to happen.

People will ticked off come election time no doubt. The question is, will they realize that it's the realtors and bankers and flippers that are at fault?

NICKG · 03-18-2008, 07:40 AM

we are in a period of stagflation...recession to follow

Joeaksa · 03-18-2008, 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moses

If 3/4 Americans think the moon is made of cheese, that doesn't make it true.

Definition: A recession is defined to be a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth.

We are not yet in a recession. It seems likely that we will be, but we are not.

Bingo!

Watch Jay Leno's streetwalking and tell me again about 3/4 of what many Americans think.

We are not in a recession right now. It may be coming but if you listen to, and believe what you hear on the news media, we have been in one for a year now.

the · 03-18-2008, 07:53 AM

So you guys think the GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2008 are going to be BETTER than the last quarter of 2007? i.e., you think things have improved???

sammyg2 · 03-18-2008, 08:48 AM

3 out of 4 people in this country probably don't even know what a recession is, they just heard it on TV.

lendaddy · 03-18-2008, 08:58 AM

What the is saying is that if we are in a recession we won't officially know it until 3rd qtr '08. That being said, if the answer at that time is yes it will have begun Jan 1st meaning we are currently in a recession but it hasn't been confirmed yet. All we can officially say right now is that there was no recession in '07. So it's a fair question to ask what your gut tells you.

NICKG · 03-18-2008, 09:06 AM

greespan says it will be the worst since WW2..I honestly hope not, but Greenspan is generally right.
people here don't talk recession, they are mumbling depression..i would hate to see what they think by you Len..Michigan is in the throes of a depression now

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

Yea, so we're in a recession. Life goes on.

I don't know why the markets are so afraid of hearing "The 'R' Word" or heavens forbid, "The 'D' Word". They're just classifications of a broad economic picture. Individual results will vary and whatever happens, people are going to go on with their lives. The voodoo, "ooga-booga" emotional/irrational aspect of the markets is always confusing and frustrating. I guess it's like women that way.

It's not like we haven't seen this coming for months, if not years. If people either didn't know that this was going to be the inevitable consequence of the lunacy in housing or didn't prepare for it, they sort of made their own bed, no?

Instrument 41 · 03-18-2008, 09:13 AM

They are also the ones that are glued to everything the media tells them. Fear, Fear, Fear......

NICKG · 03-18-2008, 09:13 AM

recesson is generally good for me..people fix cars when they would have just bought new ones

DaveE · 03-18-2008, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

................If people either didn't know that this was going to be the inevitable consequence of the lunacy in housing or didn't prepare for it, they sort of made their own bed, no?

Lunacy in the housing market PLUS the instability of oil prices.

cstreit · cstreit's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

Yea, so we're in a recession. Life goes on.

I don't know why the markets are so afraid of hearing "The 'R' Word" or heavens forbid, "The 'D' Word". They're just classifications of a broad economic picture.

I'll give you a quick primer on how to differentiate between a recession and a depression.

You know you're in a recession when your neighbor loses his job. When you lose yours, it's a depression.

Jims5543 · 03-18-2008, 09:20 AM

I consider myself to be a typical American. I have been reading the newspaper, online etc.. about the economy and trying to ascertain what..........

.... Oh Look!! A puppy!!!

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by NICKG

greespan says it will be the worst since WW2..I honestly hope not, but Greenspan is generally right.
people here don't talk recession, they are mumbling depression..i would hate to see what they think by you Len..Michigan is in the throes of a depression now

Alan "There is no Housing Bubble" Greenspan is "generally right"?!?! C'mon dude, this thing is in no small way attributable to his own flat-out WRONG-ness and decisions to slash the prime rate back in 2002-2003.

My impression is that he was trying to keep his boss (GWB) out of political trouble approaching an election as we were in a recession post-9/11 with huge job losses and terrible consumer confidence. So A.G. slashed the rates in order to stoke up the fire under the one sector that seemed to be clinging to life, housing (actually it's my opinion that housing is a lagging indicator and just hadn't gotten around to falling into the dumper like everything else by the time the effect of the rate cuts kicked in). In either case, it was a deliberate attempt to get the overall economy at least "good enough" for GWB to not get pounded in the upcoming '04 election.

Anyway, the rates got slashed and predictably, everyone made a run for the easy money. It liquified the markets and suddenly everyone with a pulse could get a half-million dollar loan backed only by their $8-an-hour job at Taco Bell. I simply have to believe that educated people knew it was an unsustainable period of insanity and deliberately tried to "time the market" (most got it wrong) and that uneducated people really believed that the days of double-digit appreciation would go on forever. Either way, everyone ignored the obvious - that this was turning into a big-ass whoppin' huge bubble, even bigger than the dot-com one from a few years earlier.

A.G. is a smart guy, but I think some of the blame for the current mess lies squarely on his shoulders. When he made his famous "there is no housing bubble" statement, I'm not sure if he was deliberately lying in order to continue "stoking the market" in order to prevent a relapse into the post-9/11 recession or whether he actually believed it. Given that he's an extremely experienced, educated guy, I have to believe it was deliberate misinformation intended to serve the wishes of his political boss - GWB.

Don't mean this to sound like another Bush-bashing thread, but let's face it, if the guy can get a man with the credibility of Colin Powell to stand up in front of the U.N. and lie his ass off in order to get an endorsement of war in Iraq, getting Greenspan to use his clout to stimulate the economy was probably a simple matter.

NICKG · 03-18-2008, 09:33 AM

i was speaking about his after office term...sorry i did not specify

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

Ahh, okay. That makes more sense.

I don't think Greenspan is an evil man per se, but he was in a political position and had to "play the game". Same as with so many others - Colin Powell, Condi Rice, etc. Lots of otherwise decent and smart people flew too close to the sun, so to speak and got burned for it. I think A.G. is no exception. He had to serve a political master and as such, he had to think/act in the short term interest. I imagine he was probably none too thrilled about it. At some point I'd love to read his book/memoirs and see what he has to say about it.