Are we at the bottom yet?

126coupe · 126coupe's Garage

Here in So. CA (orange county) I am thinking about buying a rental property with the idea of giving it to my college aged daughter at some point. From my research and instincts I dont believe we are at the bottom yet.

What are your thoughts? Late 2008? 2009? 2010, 2011?

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

Not even close.

scottmandue · 05-27-2008, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minkoff

From my research and instincts I don't believe we are at the bottom yet.

YEP

The market appears to have hit the top... I would give it a couple of years to see how far it will fall before leveling off.

dd74 · 05-27-2008, 02:25 PM

22% slide in home values in So. Cal so far this year. Of course, some areas are immune, but you can find those guys on the Ferrari board...

In short, I'd wait.

And FWIW, I'd never buy in an election year, particularly with the two candidates we have now. I don't think the market (any market) likes Obama or McCain.

Joeaksa · 05-27-2008, 02:25 PM

We just hit bottom here in Phoenix a month ago.

Two straight months of my houses value going back up in value, so things are finally heading in the right direction again.

scottmandue · 05-27-2008, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dd74

22% slide in home values in So. Cal so far this year. Of course, some areas are immune, but you can find those guys on the Ferrari board...

Hey... where is my Ferrari?

the · 05-27-2008, 02:28 PM

As they say during the mid term elections:

"Four more years!"

the · 05-27-2008, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dd74

22% slide in home values in So. Cal so far this year. Of course, some areas are immune, but you can find those guys on the Ferrari board...

Or in San Juan Capistrano.

dd74 · 05-27-2008, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scottmandue

Hey... where is my Ferrari?

Do you mean you forgot it in the garage before setting fire to your Bel Air mansion?

Bill Douglas · 05-27-2008, 02:31 PM

If they drop much further the damn forigners will start buying them. Can anyone recomend a good realestate agent.

Moses · 05-27-2008, 02:34 PM

Just talked to a young lady who bought a very nice 1,300 sq-ft condo in Pleasanton, CA for $318,000. The same condo sold for $600,000 5 years ago.

dd74 · 05-27-2008, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Douglas

If they drop much further the damn forigners will start buying them. Can anyone recomend a good realestate agent.

A foreigner bought our ex-mayor's ex-wife's $68 million 12,000+ square-foot Malibu estate. A Canadian at that.

Supposedly the biggest home sale in L.A. history...

Bill Douglas · 05-27-2008, 02:43 PM

See, my point exactly. The riff raff start moving in.

dd74 · 05-27-2008, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Douglas

The riff raff start moving in.

...and the shafted move to New Zealand...

Joeaksa · 05-27-2008, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dd74

...and the shafted move to New Zealand...

Can see you have not spent much time in NZ. Would give my left nut to retire on the South Island of NZ. Its very nice there...

126coupe · 126coupe's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by dd74

A foreigner bought our ex-mayor's ex-wife's $68 million 12,000+ square-foot Malibu estate. A Canadian at that.

Supposedly the biggest home sale in L.A. history...

Some Canadian bought here in Coto, I believe $19 Million

Dantilla · 05-27-2008, 02:57 PM

My realtor's barometer:

As long as there are columns of forclosure notices in the legal section of the paper, the bottom isn't here yet. When it goes back the the normal two or three, things are back in sync.

Bill Douglas · 05-27-2008, 02:58 PM

South Island's nice but I'm too shafted to live there. Wellington for me at the bottom of the North Island. OK but windy as hell.

Zeke · 05-27-2008, 03:14 PM

The cheap money (again) has promoted a slowing of the decline. IMHO, it's still declining. However, I think the better part of the adjustment has passed. You could do some projection charts to see what would happen to your tax picture when buying at various points in time at various interest rates.

I think one will still lose equity for the next 2-3 years, but we may be near the bottom of the Bell Curve which means not as quickly. So, only you can plug in your tax situation and see what the net loss will be using different scenarios. Wait too long and the net won't be as good.

I told my step daughter to not buy last year as a first time buyer. She would have lost a 100 large minimum. But, her joint tax return is getting clobbered not having the interest deduction. I've told her recently to start looking around. As I said, she will still loose some equity over the next score of months, but with the low int rates and the tax advantage she will have as a homeowner, the time is getting near. That's only for her, not for everyone.

Zeke · 05-27-2008, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minkoff

Some Canadian bought here in Coto, I believe $19 Million

That sector of the market is mostly unaffected. The mc mansions may get hit harder, but it's the within-reach homes that got out of reach that triggered the problem along with the easy money. Last recession I saw no significant problems with the ultra high end market. I mean they went down, but second homes in the mountains and such got hit much harder. The worst was in Laguna Niguel which lost about 40% in the first and most severe part of the decline. That would have been from '90 to 93 with the majority of the loss in the first half of the 3 year period. Those were the latest to be built and were sold at too high a price to begin with.