Is economic disaster bad?

[HardDrive]

Everyone is predicting economic disaster these days. Be it a huge sudden melt down, or decades of slow decline, it seems everyone agrees that we are headed for harder times.

I agree with them. If you can balance a checkbook, I don't see how you can disagree.

But I'm not so sure this coming 'disaster' is really a disaster at all. Perhaps it is more of an 'intervention'. Our country has lost its way in many ways, and maybe this is a opportunity for us to find our way again.

I hope that in the face of adversity, we can come together and find the positive qualitys that define us a Americans.

If there is less fuel, perhaps people will reconnect with their local neighborhoods, rather than treating their homes as island destinations where they retreat after work.

If there is less fuel, perhaps there will be stronger incentives for people to buy local food and products.

If there is a unemployement, perhaps others generosity will be awakened.

When there is no money to buy the next electronic gizmo or piece of fashionable clothing, perhaps people will see the absurdity of what the entertainment industry has be selling us for the past 3 decades.

What came of the depression of the 1930s? A generation of people we commonly call 'The Greatest Generation'.

What do you think?

[Tidybuoy]

I agree.

It's a tough situation. I think we should be drilling for oil locally to supply our own needs. But the environmentalists have a point that this could lead to disaster if not controlled.

I hate paying high gas prices but I also think it's the only way to get people to conserve. Nobody needs 500hp in a family sedan or suv (Porsche Turbo IS needed for fun purposes).

The bling bling mentality has taken over. Just watch MTV. All the shows that tell you what others make, what they have, etc...it not good for society. It only makes everyone (including me) want everything now and for free.

When I grew up, we had 8 kids, one car, ate dinner every night at the table, did chores, had rules, dressed neatly for school, respected our elders, and appreciated what we had.

I always thought I was lucky because my mom made my shirts and I got to pick out the material. Now I find out we were just poor.....I had no idea.

I have a nice house and I never refinanced to buy everything I wanted - like most of my friends did. I was so sick of everyone telling me I should cash in on my equity and get a pool, remodel the kitchen, get a new Porsche........ I love my old Porsche! I also love the fact that my house will be paid for in 10 years and I don't a 2k+ mortgage.

I think our society needs a mind-set change and the poor economic situation may force the issue. But, a poor economy can affect everyone - even the ones that don't spend it all on bling. Why do I have to pay $5 a gallon when I drive an economy car?

Like I said, it's a tough situation. I am against Govt over regulation but sometimes it is necessary. I feel like we need the govt to require 30+mph on all vehicles - but, at the same time, I hate the fact that this could affect our sports cars, which I love.

Lastly, this is not all Bush's fault! We, the people need to make change.

[scottmandue]

Funny how the addict aways thinks it will be OK if they can just get a little more.

[djmcmath]

Good point. The road to recovery will be hard, but I think you're right -- we as a country need this. I was out house shopping this morning. One open house we stopped in front of had a Hummer parked out front -- the Realtor's vehicle. She was pushing a 6000sqft home as "adequate, for a starter home or even a small family." And I'm thinking "This market is badly broken." There's this fundamental disconnect between what people are producing in their jobs, what they expect to be paid, and what they expect to get for it.

Will 10 years of depression fix that?

Dan

[herr_oberst]

[QUOTE= There's this fundamental disconnect between what people are producing in their jobs, what they expect to be paid, and what they expect to get for it.
[/QUOTE]

I read this at work this morning (sat) where I am making time and half to sit in front of a computer to photoshop digital images for a pretty decent wage. Much easier work than stocking grocery shelves or moving furniture and I "earn" about 5 times as much money.

I guess my face should be red, but at least I am aware of the discrepancy here.

(OK, the internet on company time is just absolutely wrong, and I know it.)

[Palum6o]

Originally Posted by Tidybuoy

... We, the people need to make change.

The problem with this is that we as a whole aren't smart enough to do it, or motivated (yet). This is where an effective leader is needed. When I say leader, I don't mean the media or big business. The leader we need will encourage us to think about what is truly happening rather than scaring us or taxing our pockets. So where and when will we ever get this leader? I don't think anyone will do anything until they feel the hunger setting in, but by then it will be too late. When the system breaks down, it will regroup, adapt and come back.

[Sonic dB]

There are indications that Al Quaeda's current strategy is an economic war on the United States.

[Aurel]

People have become greedy and lazy. Every one is looking at making a quick buck by screwing someone else. I wish I could agree with the positive tone of the thread starter, but I doubt very much that a new great generation will come out of this. There were internal challenges that could have been adressed the past 8 years, and those were not going after Al Quaeda in the middle east.
Now, I feel like it is too late. But I also know that in any situation, our personal attitude defines if we will be winners or losers. These will be interesting times for sure.

Aurel

[Sonic dB]

Aurel, I agree with what you are saying. It seems that more than ever everyone is just looking out for themselves and are not concerned about the direction or future of the country. As long as there is food on the table, latest digital gadget or video games etc. most people dont give a crap about anything else. People I talk to, the issues of the country never come up... apathy is at an all time high, as is escapism. Im not sure if this is due to greed, or the fact that most people have resigned the fact that they can do anything about it, so rather than feel helpless...just fall into not caring and avoidance.

[Aurel]

Perfect opportunity for a dictator to show up. Weak presidential candidates, bad economy, general apathy. I would not be surprised if something major happened at some point that led to martial law, and the apparition of a new leader, who be put in place to "address" a difficult situation. I just hope I'll be able to get out then...

Aurel

[dd74]

Evidentially, the Rust Belt of the U.S., will, according to some economists, have a resurgence. Why? Because if the price of oil keeps increasing, it will be economically unfeasible to receive steel made in the Far East to be shipped to the US. In short, it will be cheaper to buy American-made steel because of its close proximity to not just the States, but Europe as well.

A lot depends on this: 1) price of oil; 2) the health of the real estate and construction industry...

But at least it was somewhat hopeful news in light of a less-than-stellar American economy.

[Bill Douglas]

Little countries, like here in New Zealand, are constantly "re-inventing" themselves. NZ is a farming country for a while, then oil comes along, then wine production and movies. Back to farming forestry and sheeps wool. At the moment we are doing "value added" (well finished goods) type production. The US will find a new niche.

Very good examples of this are Eastonia and Georgia (sp), being a truck drive away from the consumers of Germany and all their money, they are beautifully positioned to adapt fast.

[Zeke]

Originally Posted by HardDrive

What came of the depression of the 1930s? A generation of people we commonly call 'The Greatest Generation'.

What do you think?

I can't disagree with most of your premise, but how many people do you know personally and well, (think parents and relatives) that lived thru the depression of the 30's and the WWII rationing? I know a few and knew a few more than have passed. It wasn't pretty and left deep scars on most.

In today's society things won't play out as they did then. What you will have is total anarchy in the streets. There will be wholesale crime and murder. Anyone with anything valuable (especially food) will face the real fact that they may be killed in their homes for very little. I don't remember reading about any riots back then as we have had since the 60's.

Is that what you wish for? I know if we hit 30 % unemployment like they had, I'll be running for my life.

[Jim Sims]

"I don't remember reading about any riots back then as we have had since the 60's."

That's probably because the history you are informed of was likely sanitized (especially public school history books). Look up the WWI veteran bonus march on Washington in the depths of the depression and learn how the future General "Doug the corn cop pipe" brought out US Army tanks to put it down.

There are more examples.

There have been far worse times (and far worse human behavior) in the past.

I hope people really think next election and cast their votes based on a composite or optimized basis and not just in terms of a single issue.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Hopefully some good will come out of it. There's way too much stupid going around out there and the only cure is a good hard reality slap.

I honestly believe America might be too far gone to fix itself though. Instead I fear we'll see a lot of whiners crying about how life isn't fair and how the government should save them, which ultimately will only make the problem worse (and unfortunately, this is a position that has historical precedent with the New Deal).

I honestly think if this one goes sideways to the point where it's a full-blown depression with rampant unemployment, hyperinflation and bread lines, it won't be fixed by government intervention. Once it gets to that point, it'll be all-out revolution with blood in the streets. There won't be a government fix to this one. Government is far too selfish and incapable, and enough of the people ultimately won't believe in it enough to make a New Deal sort of solution work (my disdain for such a "solution" aside. . .)

Let's hope it doesn't get to that point and it instead is just a long-period, shallow recessionary period with a lot of pullbacks and changes rather than a quick, precipitous jerky drop. If it's the latter, I seriously think it's going to go all the way to people sitting on their rooftops with shotguns to fend off looters.

[competentone]

Originally Posted by milt

In today's society things won't play out as they did then. What you will have is total anarchy in the streets. There will be wholesale crime and murder. Anyone with anything valuable (especially food) will face the real fact that they may be killed in their homes for very little.

Probably a pretty accurate assessment of what a "great depression" in our society would look like.

In the 1930s there was a lot stronger attitude of "self-responsibility." Today, there is a huge percentage of the population living with an "entitlement" mindset.

When people think they have some "right" to the property of others, they are only one small step away from violence. Most are reluctant to commit the violent acts themselves, but are more than willing to support some thug (like a dictator) to carry out the actual theft.

From what has already been done with our monetary system, there isn't much that can be done to avoid another "great depression." It is just a question about how, and how fast, the "house-of-cards" financial system will collapse.

The government cannot stop what will happen, but its actions can "direct" the meltdown to a degree. Based upon what we've seen so far (like the Bear Stearns bailout) we will be seeing hyper-inflation in this collapse.

The government likes the "inflation route"; that way the government officials can attack the business people (just like they are doing now with the oil companies and futures traders in the oil markets) and divert all attention away from themselves regarding their role in causing the economic meltdown.

Look to some of the past decades hyper-inflation economic meltdowns in South America to get a rough idea as to how our society will react.

[Rearden]

Originally Posted by Aurel

Perfect opportunity for a dictator to show up. Weak presidential candidates, bad economy, general apathy. I would not be surprised if something major happened at some point that led to martial law, and the apparition of a new leader, who be put in place to "address" a difficult situation. I just hope I'll be able to get out then...

Aurel

[Zeke]

Originally Posted by Jim Sims

"I don't remember reading about any riots back then as we have had since the 60's."

That's probably because the history you are informed of was likely sanitized (especially public school history books). Look up the WWI veteran bonus march on Washington in the depths of the depression and learn how the future General "Doug the corn cop pipe" brought out US Army tanks to put it down.

There are more examples.

There have been far worse times (and far worse human behavior) in the past.

I hope people really think next election and cast their votes based on a composite or optimized basis and not just in terms of a single issue.

I'm interested in more examples. And I wonder if the DC march (riot?) compares to Los Angeles in '92. Over 1000 fires burning simultaneously with no one to attend to putting them out. When the firefighters did get to some, they were shot at. My buddy the captain I referred to in another thread on entitlements was shown on TV standing at the Long Beach office of the DMV. he basically said we're gonna let this one burn down because it's less of a threat than others AFA spreading. (We didn't get another DMV in LB for a few years and it's not full service.)

The Rodney King incident only reinforced what the inner city can and will do with little provocation. Put these folks into some real hurt and they'll let you know about it. And don't forget where the gangs are. They are well armed and well organized. So far, they mainly pick on each other with a cop shooting thrown in once a year or so. They wouldn't hesitate to move in on the general population when they get hungry enough.

Single issue? I think the economy is big enough to worry about before I start thinking about anything else but freedom. I'm not sure I'm even worried about foreign terrorists. There will be enough domestic terrorism if things get bad enough.

[fintstone]

You guys are far too pessimistic. Pretty soon the liberals willl have to give in and allow drilling and refining oil (and coal) in the US...as well as Nuclear plants...which willl buy enough time to develop alternatives...Unless, of course, people are crazy enough to elect Obama, which willl speed things up too fast to correct when he increases taxes on everyone that provides jobs....which will cause unimaginable unemployment and bring on the big depression described earlier in the thread.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts

... if you look back in history, the same could be said for many different points where the future looked very bleak. Examples:

- 1980s when interest rates were 15-17% and the economy was tanking
- 1980s when we thought Japan would eventually buy the entire US
- 1960s during the cold war & Cuban missle crisis
- 1970s with Vietnam and the hippie movement clearly dividing the country

I think one of the reasons why people may be such misanthropes these days is because the nineties was so prosperous...

-Wayne

Exactly! You guys have just gotten soft. The times that Wayne cites above were much tougher for most Americans.