Why is Gas So High

[Mule]

Originally Posted by kang

If they are saving the planet, then why did you say “the Democratic Party has pursued policies designed to drive up the cost of petroleum” in the opening line of your post? You deliberately made it sound like driving up the cost of petroleum is their number one goal.

Perhaps driving up the cost of petroleum is a side effect of the attempt to save the planet, but democrats are most certainly not “pursuing policies designed to drive up the cost of petroleum.” They are pursuing policies designed to save the planet. An unwelcome, but acceptable, side effect, is an increase in the cost of petroleum.

Sorry this is so tough for you. $4 gas=less demand=less co2 in the atmosphere=safety from manbearpig.

Algore has said for years, if he could, he'd make gas $10 a gallon!

I hope you are smarter than your statement of "They are pursuing policies designed to save the planet." says. Do you really believe that the planet is dying & algore & the leftist democrats are saving it? Do you really believe that?

http://www.geocities.com/Pentagon/6315/gore.html

[jyl]

What I read in the oil market - industry and investment stuff, not Mule's blogs - is concerned with (1) consumption in US, China, and oil exporting countries, (2) production declines in the mega-fields of Saudi, Russia, Mexico, etc, (3) strategic choices by the major exporters between producing now or leaving in the ground, (4) potential major disruptions (military, etc).

Minor production opportunities (offshore US, etc) are not what is driving energy market prices.

(FWIW, I went short the oil stocks this week. And went long some transport stocks, only partly due to inverse behaviour to oil.)

[Mule]

What production declines?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_47/b3909079_mz054.htm

[rcooled]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

So, if we were to eventually have a monopoly on oil reserves and the rest of the world were begging us for it, how would that make the price lower? Why would any domestic producer sell it here for less than the Chicomms or Indians are willing to pay for it?

It's not about the cost of petroleum products....it's about control. If the US eventually owns the majority of the world's oil producing capability, it's a major step closer to being the undisputed big fish in a rather small pond. Look at world history...power and control is what it's all about. The strong have always wanted to subjugate the weak and will continue to do so until the end of time.

[DaveE]

If we tapped our resources now, how would THAT make the price lower? OPEC could just dial back production a little and their resources would last a bit longer. Are the US producers going to sell cheaper to us than on the world market?

[jyl]

You pointed us to a 2004 article. A lot has changed since 2004, in oil market fundamentals and the financial markets surrounding crude oil. If you don't know that, then . . .

You said in a prior thread that you don't know much about the oil market. So I've never understood why you feel qualified to make such absolute pronouncements about what should be done.

Is it because opinions are like, and everyone has one?

Anyway.

Russian oil production is now declining at -1-2%/yr. http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11332313

Mexican oil production is declining at over -10%/yr. Mexico's biggest oil field, Cantarell, is falling -30%/yr.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=auA2G9v81BqM&refer=news

North Sea oil production is falling steeply, that has been going on for some years.

Venezula production is falling, I think mid-single-digits/yr.
http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2008/01/03/Analysis_Venezuelan_oil_production_down/UPI-35401199373331/

I'm not trying to write a long explanation of what is driving up oil prices, but production declines at some key mega-fields is one of the reasons.

Originally Posted by Mule

What production declines?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_47/b3909079_mz054.htm

[dentist90]

Lots of crude. Even more humans.

It's a limited resource, so the faster we pump it up the faster it will be gone. Conversely, if we don't pump it up faster it will sell to the highest bidder. Should we institute population control indexed to crude production? I kinda like the status quo.

[jyl]

And the decision is not up to us, as in "the USA".

Oil exporting countries have seen their oil revenues roughly double in a year, simply from price. For the most part, they don't "need" to pump more.

In many of those countries, inflation is becoming a serious problem. If anything, they may prefer less, rather than more, money flooding their countries.

With oil price rising, oil left in the ground becomes more valuable each decade. Probably as good as most other investments they could make.

So why should they explore, develop, and produce harder? Simply to give us lower gasoline prices?

If you are the Saudis, say, you want to avoid major demand destruction from a severe global recession. But with demand in emerging economies rising nicely, a little bit of demand destruction in the US is okay.

[Mule]

Originally Posted by jyl

You pointed us to a 2004 article. A lot has changed since 2004, in oil market fundamentals and the financial markets surrounding crude oil. If you don't know that, then . . .

You said in a prior thread that you don't know much about the oil market. So I've never understood why you feel qualified to make such absolute pronouncements about what should be done.

Is it because opinions are like, and everyone has one?

Anyway.

Russian oil production is now declining at -1-2%/yr. http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11332313

Mexican oil production is declining at over -10%/yr. Mexico's biggest oil field, Cantarell, is falling -30%/yr.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=auA2G9v81BqM&refer=news

North Sea oil production is falling steeply, that has been going on for some years.

Venezula production is falling, I think mid-single-digits/yr.
http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2008/01/03/Analysis_Venezuelan_oil_production_down/UPI-35401199373331/

I'm not trying to write a long explanation of what is driving up oil prices, but production declines at some key mega-fields is one of the reasons.

You might want to point all this wisdom out to these folks, 'cause they seem to have missed the fact that world oil production is down significantly.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=53040

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azl03ddU8KRQ&refer=home

As far as what's changed, it seems like speculation & price fixing is the biggest change because as the Saudi's recently said, there is no shortage. Are you waiting in line?

What I said in a prior post was that I didn't understand the supposed value of futures markets. No one ever explained their value. They pointed out that it makes forecasting easier for investors. That doesn't equate to value. It equates to scheming.

I can see that you are trying to impress us all as being highly intelligent. Were that really the case you wouldn't be a left wing moonie.

[jyl]

No-one said world oil production is down significantly. It is rising. But by very little - around +1%. Oil bulls fear that consumption is rising faster, and they fear that production will flatten out in future years while consumption continues increasing.

Originally Posted by Mule

You might want to point all this wisdom out to these folks, 'cause they seem to have missed the fact that world oil production is down significantly.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=53040

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azl03ddU8KRQ&refer=home

As far as what's changed, it seems like speculation & price fixing is the biggest change because as the Saudi's recently said, there is no shortage. Are you waiting in line?

What I said in a prior post was that I didn't understand the supposed value of futures markets. No one ever explained their value. They pointed out that it makes forecasting easier for investors. That doesn't equate to value. It equates to scheming.

I can see that you are trying to impress us all as being highly intelligent. Were that really the case you wouldn't be a left wing moonie.

Sorry, but I've read most of your oil posts and its pretty clear you have some strong opinions but not a lot of knowledge. Pointing us to a 2004 article and thinking it represents the current state is an example of that. Being unaware of production declines in some of the world's major fields is another example.

I actually agree there is no shortage at all of oil, at present. I believe there will not be one in the near-term future either, because demand destruction will be much more severe than most models assume. The financial market for oil futures has been in a frenzy, with oil bulls trumpeting every bullish data point and ignoring every bearish data point. I think odds favor a reversal in the near-term.

[john70t]

What has happened with all that Iraqi oil? Haven't heard about it in the news.

[Mule]

Originally Posted by jyl

No-one said world oil production is down significantly. It is rising. But by very little - around +1%. Oil bulls fear that consumption is rising faster, and they fear that production will flatten out in future years while consumption continues increasing.



Sorry, but I've read most of your oil posts and its pretty clear you have some strong opinions but not a lot of knowledge. Pointing us to a 2004 article and thinking it represents the current state is an example of that. Being unaware of production declines in some of the world's major fields is another example.

I actually agree there is no shortage at all of oil, at present. I believe there will not be one in the near-term future either, because demand destruction will be much more severe than most models assume. The financial market for oil futures has been in a frenzy, with oil bulls trumpeting every bullish data point and ignoring every bearish data point. I think odds favor a reversal in the near-term.

You talk nonsense. On one hand you say "I actually agree there is no shortage at all of oil, at present. I believe there will not be one in the near-term future either," Then you say, "The financial market for oil futures has been in a frenzy,"

What's the frenzy over? How much they can manipulate the price?

Oil usage is not in some significant increase. Supply is more than capable of keeping up with any increase in usage.


This is big money hustlers, with the help of eco-imbeciles, raping the consumers.
Sorry if this interferes with your efforts to feel intellectually superior.