Are we officially in a recession yet?

[tonypeoni]

Heck I don't know what to think. I know this, the Midwest is about as bad as Ive ever seen it.

[Dan in Pasadena]

Not if you talk to anyone in this Adminstration....we just are to everyone else.

[Hawktel]

No. Not even close.

A recession is a defined term.

We have a slow economy right now though.

[pwd72s]

No, not officially...we're not into even one down quarter yet...and you need two of them in order for it to be officially a recession.

But...remember the Reagan quote. When your neighbor is out of work, it's a recession. When you are out of work, it's a depression.

Unemployment at 5% now? How many here remember the Carter era "misery index"?

Unemployment AND inflation were both double digits...OFFICIALLY!

[tonypeoni]

Yeah I mean I know what your all saying but I think in reality we have double digit unemployment.

[GDSOB]

Originally Posted by Hawktel

No. Not even close.

A recession is a defined term.

We have a slow economy right now though.

I was transferred to Ohio in 1998. Been in a recession for as long as I've lived here.

[anotherblack944]

Ah, the root of the problem.. "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." I think to update this we need to add a fourth.. "news media".

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by tonypeoni

Yeah I mean I know what your all saying but I think in reality we have double digit unemployment.

All depends on how you like to count it....but Carter era and today...the official count was done the same way. I know where you are coming from...those whose unemployment checks have run out, those who gave up looking for a job, etc.

[Dan in Pasadena]

I think I heard the stat the other day that unemployment is 5.5% when it had been expected to rise by "only" (if you're not one of them) .1 or .2%. As I heard it, this is the highest since 1986.

Gasoline at unprecedented highs despite many analysts don't beleive supply and demand merit this high a rise....opine that its a bubble akin to the tech stock bubble and the Dow bubble of the early 30's. I wonder if thats true? If it is, when does it crash back to reality (whatever that price is) and what does it bring with it?

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Things are slow and there's a lot of uneasiness right now. Put that right on the coattails of the largest, longest-lasting orgy of credit spending the nation has ever seen and it appears much worse.

It hurts yes, but I also think it's necessary if we're going to have any hope of sustaining ourselves.

[the]

Originally Posted by Hawktel

No. Not even close.

A recession is a defined term.

We have a slow economy right now though.

Not even close? GDP growth for the first quarter was what 0.6? This quarter will probably be worse. If we're not in the first quarter of a recession, we certainly are close.

Our economy is a real mess right now. Inflation and unemployment are through the roof, and "growth" is non-existent. Foreclosures are at an all time record. There is nothing positive going on right now.

[Jim Richards]

teetering on the brink, IMO.

[RoninLB]

Originally Posted by Jim Richards

teetering on the brink, IMO.

To many downers converging at same time.
There's no "juice" around to power the economy.

high inflation might light the fuse?

[Porsche-O-Phile]

How is high inflation going to help anything?

Wages (for those still with jobs) lag behind run-ups in cost due to inflation. In otherwords, everyone gets screwed in terms of real dollars until salaries catch up with the inflation, which usually takes a while.

[Moses]

Isn't recession defined as at least two consecutive quarters of declining GDP? Let's ask the boss;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QucJvw4rbk8&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fforums.pelicanparts.com%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D414353&page=2

[RoninLB]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

How is high inflation going to help anything?

inflation will light the fuse of Jim's "brink" bomb. The bomb consisting of high fuel, food, and taxes wrapped in a slow boring economy with strict credit restrictions. The ambiance is poor market expectations and political uncertainty.


cleaning up the explosion could require very high short term interest rates, lower currency liquidity, and an economic contraction.


... i'm sure there's more horror?

[speeder]

I'd love to see the "real" inflation #s, using the same factors as when Carter was president. You know, the ones that include energy and housing costs. I just came from the grocery store and there is some serious sticker-shock after years of little or no noticeable inflation.

I don't think that a U.S. economy has ever gone from so sound to so horse schit in such a short period of time. In fact, I'm sure of it.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by RoninLB

To many downers converging at same time.
There's no "juice" around to power the economy.

high inflation might light the fuse?

Personally, I think this economic situtation is being fueled by 24 hour news coverage. Reality is not reflected by the news.

Crime is Down, but there are more articles about crime

Iraq is getting much better, but no news on this front

Lots of reporting about bad stuff in the economy, but inflation has not gone up, jobs numbers are still better than the 1990's, when everything was FANTASTIC.

Great datapoint I found: Child abduction. If you discount those where a family member or friend is involved, the number is less than 100 per year, over the entire USA.

[Neilk]

But Denis, gas and food don't count!!!! It doesn't matter that gas has doubled and food prices have shot up, that's not inflation and doesn't hurt your pocket book.... cough cough...

I have noticed quite a few stores that depend on people with disposable income, that have gone out of business here in Dallas. I can't imagine what it must be like in California.

[artplumber]

When gas goes to $5 we'll be in a recession for sure.

Doesn't all of this beg the question of the fundamentals of the economy and economic indicators? I have some sympathy for the view of "money is debt". If that is true, then the whole house of cards will come down at some point, because the debt can't be serviced. Furthermore, does a "successful" economy have to have growth? Why can't decent wages for most and a reasonable manufacturing ability be more important than "growth". The way things are set up, the system is predestined to failure, mainly because (IMO) the people making the most money are those who only shuffle the debt around and get paid for doing it. The value they add is finding people with money to finance startups etc, but they are taking a huge cut (more than real estate agents ).