The U.S.A. is Dead

[therotman]

Originally Posted by HardDrive

There is a reason I have 1000 rounds of 7.62mm in my closet.

The voices told you to do it?

[dd74]

Originally Posted by kstarnes

This sentiment is a sign that it's nearing a good time to invest in the USA.

As Sir John Templeton once said (to paraphrase) "the best time to sell is at the moment of maximum optimism and the best time to buy is at the moment of maximum pessimism".

I think the moment of the latter is close at hand.

Best,

You're correct.

Originally Posted by nostatic

我学习汉语

You're incorrect.

My bet is on the Yanks to make a huge comeback. It won't happen anytime soon - and it will get worse before better. However, new energies will be discovered and/or developed, the real estate situation will even out, banks will become solvent, and manufacturing will be loosened from the constraints of legislation. No one's about to throw in the towel yet. You will now witness the best in the American people. Those who can't hang, or can't diversify themselves, will, unfortunately, fall by the wayside. Other than that, now is a great time to invest in the U.S.

As to China. I don't give them, or India, ten more years at their current level of production and/or wealth. First of all, we are the largest consumers of their products. But at the current fiscal situation in the U.S., many are scaling back on purchases of what these countries sell. The same is happening in Europe, where virtually every country in the region is experiencing a severe economic slowdown. In short, if there's no money, there's no China nor India as an economic power.

I'll even take this further to say the Arab oil-producing countries will also have their reckoning. Americans will demand more fuel efficient vehicles - and they are most definitely in the pipeline from not just the European and Japanese manufacturers, but Ford, as well, who has, for example, a 300+ horsepower turbo four that produces outstanding fuel mileage that they plan to make one of their bread and butter engines. They're bringing in all sorts of cool Euro-developed cars with innovative turbo gas and diesel engines. Ford will survive. The Mideast may not, simply based on good, efficient engineering that will butt heads against their sole source of income.

GM on the other hand - well, their dousing with cold water today is a great example of what should die in America. American consumers are always two steps ahead of industry as to what they want and/or need, and the old guard corporations can no longer afford to not sit up, take notice, and then take responsibility for their position in the American economy. I lament all who've been hurt by GM's inability to innovate and be competitive, as the brunt of GM's burden will fall on them. But honestly, everyone realizes GM had it coming for a very long time.

I think whomever is elected President in November will be part of the deciding factor as to how fast or slow we recover. But regardless of who it is, we will recover.

[kstar]

DD:

I agree with the majority of your post and share your optimism re the resourcefulness of Americans!

I would only disagree with China's potential. They have 1.3B people and have embraced capitalism; they'll be able to grow internally for many many years to come with their current model . . . with one caveat!

I think the Communist government will struggle trying to keep its citizens under control. Idealistically, I don't believe that capitalism and communism can coexist for a long period of time. I would argue that the "great firewall" will not be as effective at controlling the people of China as the "Great Wall" + China's geographic isolation has historically been.

Like you, though, I share great optimism for the future of the US and will be devoting my time doing my best to take advantage of the many great opportunities that are arising from these times of tumult!

Best,

[dd74]

Originally Posted by kstarnes

DD:

I agree with the majority of your post and share your optimism re the resourcefulness of Americans!

I would only disagree with China's potential. They have 1.3B people and have embraced capitalism; they'll be able to grow internally for many many years to come with their current model . . . with one caveat!

I think the Communist government will struggle trying to keep its citizens under control. Idealistically, I don't believe that capitalism and communism can coexist for a long period of time. I would argue that the "great firewall" will not be as effective at controlling the people of China as the "Great Wall" + China's geographic isolation has historically been.

Like you, though, I share great optimism for the future of the US and will be devoting my time doing my best to take advantage of the many great opportunities that are arising from these times of tumult!

Best,

Yes, Kurt, I see your point. But there's even something more essential to China that it is seriously beginning to lack, particularly in the cities. Those are 1) Clean air, 2) Water, and 3) Living space.

Essentials, it is thought, for an adequate lifestyle. And Beijing at this moment, hasn't enough of the three for large portions of its population.

Yes, the Communist party could be a major player in China's future. I still believe that money has to arrive from outside to grow on the inside, and honestly, I don't think there's enough of it in China to elevate 1.3 billion people. Couple that with a lack of natural resources and an eventual collapse of China's capitalistic system due to ours and others economic slowdown, and you bet the Commies will come back into play.

[nostatic]

Don't misunderestimate the Chinese people or their culture. They have issues, but they also have incredible resiliency and spirit. It will be interesting to see if that can be said about the US in the next few decades...time will tell.

[dd74]

Don't underestimate Americans. While China was still mostly an agricultural country, we were building cities and infrastructure from New York to L.A. -- for ourselves.

The fact is, when all is said and done, we can survive as a world power without China. China, on the other hand, cannot survive (in their present state) without us.

[dd74]

First of all, I don't think you want this in "The U.S.A. is Dead" thread. You should move it.

Secondly, I know people in business and academia who would give their eye tooth (whatever that is) to work at USC. I certainly would not want to upset that gig if I were in a nice post there. USC is an institution unto itself, and has tremendous world-wide clout. If you feel the need to leave, you should do so, but to an employer of equal stature - not a small start up.

Also - and very important in my view, - can't your son go to USC for free because of your long-term employment there? I know a physics professor at SC who sent his daughters there free of charge. It makes a difference when facing what may soon become an average college tuition of $100,000.

[HardDrive]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

I dunno guys. I can't really disagree that our empire is on the decline. But it's not a bad place to live, all things considered. I've got a few passports full of stamps from countries I'd not want to live in for more than a vacation or so

+1.

Not all is well in our land, but people really need to gain a grip. Go live in India or China for a while.

[slakjaw]

A hang nail never killed anyone.

Doom and gloom BS.

[1967 R50/2]

In "The Paradox of American Power" by J. Nye which was published shortly after 9/11, the author predicted that really, nothing was holding the US back in terms of continued economic and cultural hegemony. Not China, not Europe, and certainly not the players in the middle east. By his reasoning "Soft Power" , ie popular culture, music, joint diplomacy and trade policies have as much or more influence than "Hard Power: ie military or unilateral economic measures.

Soft power brings respect and nations are more likely to respond in kind which results in real advances and of course has monetary benefits. There's a whole lot more to it in the book, which is a good read, albeit a bit dated (or prescient) right now.

They only thing he envisioned that could really derail the US was if we spent our time, money and debased our "soft power" fighting un-necessary wars or through other global PR blunders.

Read it and draw your own conclusions.

http://www.amazon.com/Paradox-American-Power-Worlds-Superpower/dp/0195150880

[Por_sha911]

I remember when the sky was falling and we were all going to be speaking Japanese.
(Please cue up "U.S. Blues" by Uncle Jerry and relax)

Red and white, blue suede shoes, I'm Uncle Sam, how do you do?
Gimme five, I'm still alive, ain't no luck, I learned to duck.
Check my pulse, it don't change. Stay seventy-two come shine or rain.
Wave the flag, pop the bag, rock the boat, skin the goat.
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high.
Summertime done, come and gone, my, oh, my.

I'm Uncle Sam, that's who I am; Been hidin' out in a rock and roll band.
Shake the hand that shook the hand of P.T. Barnum and Charlie Chan.
Shine your shoes, light your fuse. Can you use them ol' U.S. Blues?