Oil is down almost $7, the Dow is fighting to stay above 11K...

dd74 · 07-15-2008, 10:30 AM

Do you think the economy is getting better? I mean, after Freddy, Fannie and Indy, I seriously thought the U.S. economy might...well...collapse. But so far, things seem to be holding on...I hope...

ronin · 07-15-2008, 11:11 AM

well, if Harry Reed doesn't pipe up any time soon, we should be o.k.

Rick Lee · Rick Lee's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by ronin

well, if Harry Reed doesn't pipe up any time soon, we should be o.k.

You mean is Schumer doesn't yell "fire" in a crowded theatre again.

Red Baron · 07-15-2008, 12:35 PM

This on the heels of the announcement to drill here? Just imagine how low it will go if the Democratic Congress approves!

Moses · 07-15-2008, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Baron

This on the heels of the announcement to drill here? Just imagine how low it will go if the Democratic Congress approves!

It will never even see a vote. The Dems will stonewall.

Pazuzu · 07-15-2008, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moses

It will never even see a vote. The Dems will stonewall.

Then the companies will start drilling on their own. What's gonna happen, they get a fine and a handslap?

Do the seismic, drop a drilling rig off the Cali coast, and give a charitable donation to whatever town is most affected by it, and everyone will be happy, laws be damned.

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

Wait until the next torpedo hits the hull. The one I'm talking about is when Citigroup or another big financial player comes out with a report indicating just how much bad debt they have on their books. . . or something similar (e.g. "umm. . . we're not sure exactly how much subprime exposure we have but. . . uhh. . . it's. . . umm. . . bad").

Mark my words - sub-10,000 by the end of the year easily. Look at the prices on put positions these days - lots of not-so-positive outlooks out there driving those prices.

jyl · jyl's Garage

Oil price fall today not triggered by Bush off-shore drilling statement yesterday. Notice no reaction in intraday oil futures on 7/14 when previews of Bush statement, and then statement itself, hit the wires. Bush action also has been widely anticipated in markets.

Checking w/ traders, sounds like oil markets reacted to Bernanke's negative forecast on US growth, also OPEC cut 2009 global demand growth forecast to only 1%, Petrobras said strike only minor impact on production (<100K bbl/day). You can see oil chart intraday reacting to these news items. There was also a rumour a large bank was liquidating oil holdings.

I've mentioned this on the other thread, in my opinion oil price chart is headed for a blow-up. Whether I am right or not (I hope I am), everyone can read the chart and makes for high volatility.

Red Baron · 07-15-2008, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moses

It will never even see a vote. The Dems will stonewall.

That'll put their collective a-sses in a sling.

island911 · 07-15-2008, 03:01 PM

Bush Says Drill, Drill, Drill — and Oil Drops $9!

Quote:

The congressional ban on offshore drilling expires September 30, so that becomes a key date. A new report from Wall Street research house Sanford C. Bernstein says that California actually could start producing new oil within one year if the moratorium were lifted. The California oil is under shallow water and already has been explored. Drilling platforms have been in place since before the moratorium. They’re talking about 10 billion barrels worth off the coast of California.

full article: http://kudlow.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjMyNDljNTQ5MThjNWE3YTAzYWYzMmZmNDVmMjA0ZWY=

sammyg2 · 07-15-2008, 03:06 PM

The speculators had a huge short position, they used Bush's symbolic call for oil to start the ball rolling downwards by selling a small portion cheap, they rest of the sheep followed off the cliff and the big boys sold off their short options for big $$ and the sheep got burned. Tonmorrow oil up $5, then after about a week we'll see another dip after they accumulate more short option. again.
This appears so transparent and obvious it makes my stomach turn.

sammyg2 · 07-15-2008, 03:08 PM

BTW, drill offshore where you don't have a lease and the proper permits and you don't just get fined, you go to jail or maybe even prison. If you get out, that's when you get hit with the $100 million or so fine.
Doesn't matter, you wouldn't get 1/10th of 1% of the platform set before you were cuffed.

einreb · 07-15-2008, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by island911

Bush Says Drill, Drill, Drill — and Oil Drops $9!

full article: http://kudlow.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjMyNDljNTQ5MThjNWE3YTAzYWYzMmZmNDVmMjA0ZWY=

the title says it all...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/15/142847/758/163/552062

island911 · 07-15-2008, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by einreb

the title says it all...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/15/142847/758/163/552062

yes yes . . nice attack on the messenger. But, he doesn't talk about what I had bolded there... Is it reasonable to expect 'new(previously off-limit oil) to start pumping in one year? ...or is Obama and his "don't do it cuz it will take 10 years" right?

einreb · 07-15-2008, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by island911

yes yes . . nice attack on the messenger. But, he doesn't talk about what I had bolded there...

I don't think that Bush's press conference and the price drop were connected. Kudlow also dresses funny.

Quote:

Originally Posted by island911

Is it reasonable to expect 'new(previously off-limit oil) to start pumping in one year?or is Obama and his "don't do it cuz it will take 10 years" right?

I don't know.... closer to one than ten if we gave it the old college try?

island911 · 07-15-2008, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by einreb

..... Kudlow also dresses funny.

I'll bet our Superman here beats him in that . ..but we still listen to what he has to say.

...and yeah, I'm thinking it will be much closer to one year than ten.

einreb · 07-15-2008, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by island911

but we still listen to what he has to say.

I cant bear to listen to Kudlow... he's the worst kind of 'infotainment'.

MRM · 07-15-2008, 06:39 PM

You realize, of course, that at $145-ish a barrel, a $7 drop is about 4%. I think oil ended up off about 3.5% for the day. That's a pretty small fluctuation. I wouldn't start making any big predictions one way or the other on increases or decreases in this range. It's like gas going up or down a dime a gallon. It's a rounding error.

MRM · 06:47 PM

Bush hates double posts.

Pazuzu · 07-15-2008, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammyg2

BTW, drill offshore where you don't have a lease and the proper permits and you don't just get fined, you go to jail or maybe even prison. If you get out, that's when you get hit with the $100 million or so fine.
Doesn't matter, you wouldn't get 1/10th of 1% of the platform set before you were cuffed.

Says who? Has anyone ever been cuffed for drilling in unleased land? I firmly believe that if the companies started drilling, with the President's AND the public's support, that Congress would roll over, not be cuffing people.