Thinking solar PV system - Anyone else?

[berettafan]

Heck, i'd even welcome a pitch by somebody who says 'it doesn't make sense....by $xxxx, but let me tell you why you should still consider it'. at least by quantifying the net cost there would be an impression of good faith.

But Joe, don't tell me i'm compromising my standing on this forum by claiming expertise in areas in which i have none. I am very careful to qualify my opinions as such (note the 'IMO') so as not to mislead anyone.

I like ya man, but that's going too far.

Turbo i'm sorry to have derailed the thread with this bit. Please carry on.

[Joeaksa]

Beretta,

Never mind. I do not have the time to argue with someone who is not open to facts.

I have a friend who has a 22 year old solar system on his cabin. Paid for itself the minute it started working as he got fed and state money for most of it, then the remainder of the $8000 cost were a moot point. The utility company wanted to charge him over $10k to run a utility line into the place so he was money ahead from day one. For 22 years he has not paid a penny in a electric bill, and his only costs have been three sets of batteries (about $400 every time) and one charge controller which was an upgrade, costing $499. Thats it in 22 years and he has seen no loss of power in his panels even at this age.

Suppose you are going to call him and his ideas stupid as well? Is your utility bill for the last 22 years the same as his is? Not factoring in the fed and state tax breaks, this has cost him about $35 a month in utility costs. With the fed and state tax breaks he has paid less than $10 a month for electricity.

Believe that I will be stupid like my friend and continue using solar and wind power as possible to power my world.

Joe A

[berettafan]

how may kwh does the cabin use?

you wanna discuss facts then present the entire story.

MAYBE this unquantified (we can't quantify it w/o a consumption figure) efficiency your friend has been enjoying isn't linear with respect to increases in load. MAYBE it is?

[Tim Hancock]

Originally Posted by Joeaksa

Tim, love you like a brother, but do not agree and feel that we are silly for not using solar and wind power. Europe has been doing it for years, why not here? I also have two 400 watt wind mills that are going up shortly. It blows around here for 2/3rds of the year so might as well use it.

Joe A

The only reason it may be working out for you financially is that the govt is subsidizing it to make it closer in cost to other cheaper forms of energy. I am no expert on Europe, but I am pretty sure their govts tax the bejesus out of other forms of energy, so the less efficient alternatives are viable there.

I am intrigued by wind, geothermal and hydro power where applicable, but PV solar is a waste of time IMO. While ultimately I don't like the idea of govt propping up what should be a mainly private competitive energy business, I would much rather the money be spent on proven viable nuclear energy.

[Joeaksa]

Nope, am tired of discussing it with someone who is not interested in the field. Frankly my time is too important to waste.

Joe A

PS its a 3000 sq foot "cabin" with two car garage, basement, "man cave" and big screen television and surround sound. Its bigger and better appointed than most people's houses.

[berettafan]

Originally Posted by Joeaksa

Nope, am tired of discussing it with someone who is not interested in the field. Frankly my time is too important to waste.

Joe A

PS its a 3000 sq foot "cabin" with two car garage, basement, "man cave" and big screen television and surround sound. Its bigger and better appointed than most people's houses.

So you have a potentially fantastic example of a guy who pays an amortized $10/mo to power a luxury cabin but you're too upset to get into the details of how it works?

Or do you just not want to talk about how often it sits empty and how the scale of his usage might translate to a principle residence?

Why can't we explore this and learn from it?

[Tim Hancock]

Joe and his buddy are not stupid for taking advantage of the govt subsidies, but the govt is stupid for offering them.

I would probably do the same, but it does not make it a smart path for our govt to be heading down. Ultimately my tax dollars are being used to help fund Joe's friend's cabin. Not exactly my idea of how govt should spend tax dollars.

[jyl]

Jurgen, last I read, appx 1/2 of the coming years' panel production will go to invtry because too much supply had come online. So, panels should sell at manufacturers cost or lower sometime in the next 12 months. IMHO.

[Joeaksa]

Originally Posted by berettafan

Why can't we explore this and learn from it?

When you stop playing around and are ready to learn come on back. You do not sound like you are the least bit interested at this time.

[berettafan]

you are misreading my posts then. i could understand your response if i were just shouting 'i can't hear you!' but i'm not. i'm trying to engage you in a meaningful discussion of solar power economics. i can read the sales brochure any time but don't care to. what i think you should bring to the table here is facts and figures as you clearly have relevant experience.

as Tim pointed out our gov't is using OUR money to subsidize this industry. what we, the unwashed masses, want to know is did you get bamboozled or are you really one of the first to find the solution!

[turbo6bar]

Originally Posted by jyl

Jurgen, last I read, appx 1/2 of the coming years' panel production will go to invtry because too much supply had come online. So, panels should sell at manufacturers cost or lower sometime in the next 12 months. IMHO.

Yeah, every article I've read points to lower costs ahead. The Chinese are flooding the market as production increases and a favorable currency exchange rate continues.

berettafan, the only way this pencils out is with massive subsidies. I recently read large-scale solar farms are not going in as originally planned, because the tax rebates are not there for the commercial projects. The equipment oversupply and enhanced tax credit structure has created a boost on the residential side. We will not see a self-supporting industry until retail pricing of solar panels hits ~$1/watt. Then, we won't need subsidies.

Don't understand why states are subsidizing alternative energy so aggressively. Many states are running massive deficits and are throwing rebates around like candy.

I've decided the go price for a 10 kw system is $30k. At that price, I will see net return of ~7-8% after depreciating equipment. I just saw an ad for a 7kw system for $26k, so my target is definitely realistic.

[Danimal16]

Joeseka's numbers are what we experienced about 5 years ago with a megawatt facility out in Santa Clarita CA. The panel life was about 27 years. The capital costs with the government subsidies and the power credit vouchers would have been a no brainer. Without that help, it did not add up. Inverters have about a 9 or 10 year life and that was factored in over the project life. We got into a pissing contest with the bean counters because they wanted to recapitalize the project at the end of its service life, which it was never designed to do. Also panels at the end of their service life still produce power to the array and that was a hard cost to capitilze on present value. Bottom line is the bean counters won and a year later rates went up significantly and a big opportunity was lost. I think there is a huge value in solar for an individual to consider, but don't listen to the salesmen, get an engineer and finance person that knows utilities and you will have the information that you need. Also, remember that new utility infrastructure is far more expensive than the old stuff that we already have per unit of service. The permitting alone of such facilities is going to heavily impact the project and there is the incentive, maybe not at this time but in the future.

[Icemaster]

Originally Posted by Joeaksa

When you stop playing around and are ready to learn come on back. You do not sound like you are the least bit interested at this time.

So the only demonstration of learning here is that he buys into your Kool-aid right?

Right.

[turbo6bar]

Originally Posted by Danimal16

Also, remember that new utility infrastructure is far more expensive than the old stuff that we already have per unit of service. The permitting alone of such facilities is going to heavily impact the project and there is the incentive, maybe not at this time but in the future.

That thought crossed my mind. However, I doubt new generation would cost anywhere near the rebates and incentives currently being offered.

The price of systems has dropped again. sunelec.com had 10kw systems priced around $41k before haggling. A couple days ago, they dropped pricing on their grid tie systems to $3.26/watt. That 10250 watt setup is now $33415. Yet again, the price drops are staggering. I remain firm to my target of $3/watt, although I am beginning to wonder, "where is the bottom?" Will we see $2/watt for a complete system? jurgen

[Danimal16]

Originally Posted by turbo6bar

That thought crossed my mind. However, I doubt new generation would cost anywhere near the rebates and incentives currently being offered.

The price of systems has dropped again. sunelec.com had 10kw systems priced around $41k before haggling. A couple days ago, they dropped pricing on their grid tie systems to $3.26/watt. That 10250 watt setup is now $33415. Yet again, the price drops are staggering. I remain firm to my target of $3/watt, although I am beginning to wonder, "where is the bottom?" Will we see $2/watt for a complete system? jurgen

My experience is about 5 years ago and I would expect that the prices and competition may be moving it to fiscal viability. For example, I just replaced my pool pump with a variable speed, permanent magnet motor and it has lived up to every bit of hype that it promised. Very happy, with the $200 rebate it will pay off in 7 months!!! What a deal. I suspect that the solar is moving in that direction and at a rate that is looking very good!

[Joeaksa]

Originally Posted by Icemaster

So the only demonstration of learning here is that he buys into your Kool-aid right?

Right.

Not at all ya jerk!

Berettafan makes up his ideas out of thin air, then defends them. Most people would go on the internet or ask someone who knows about it, but not him.

"i pulled 10yrs out of thin air as a admittedly pessimistic guess. " Come-on, pulling something out of your rear end then defending it to the end is not my idea of doing responsible due diligence.

Prove me wrong bucko. Show all of us where Bfan is correct that solar arrays last 10 years and not the 25-30 that experts say.

~~~~

For systems put "into service" between 2009 and 2016, the federal tax credit is 30%. That means that for solar electric systems put into service between Jan 1 2009 and Dec 31 2016, you will be able to get back 30% of the total cost of the system, with no cap for residential systems.

In most of Arizona, you can also get a $2.70 to $3.00 per watt rebate from APS or SRP. The federal 30% tax credit is total cost AFTER the rebate. Just for example, for a 5000 watt system where the total installed cost is $35,000, you would get (for example) $13,500 back from APS, so your cost for the system would be $21,500. You would get a 30% Federal tax rebate on that, so your total cost would be ($21.500 x .70) $15,050.

We then have another rebate from our state where you get:

Maximum Incentive: PV: 50% of project costs. Up-front incentive payment is limited to $75,000 SWH: 50% of system costs

The above quotes are directly from the state and federal rebate programs for solar energy here in Arizona.

~~~~

Lets see now.... 30% Federal rebate, 50% state rebate, that adds up to 80% of your costs, then you get from $2.70-$3.00 rebate per watt from the electricity company.

Guys we are getting close to 90-95% here. Just how expensive were you guys saying it was and when it would repay itself??? Hmmm wonder about how much this is going to help the value on my house?

Hey Ice guy, believe that I will just continue drinking that cool aid, as its putting money in my back pocket.

Joe A

[berettafan]

Put the effing kool aide down and rmfp! You are so married to this concept you fail to recognize context.

[Jims5543]

Originally Posted by Joeaksa

Not at all ya jerk!

Berettafan makes up his ideas out of thin air, then defends them. Most people would go on the internet or ask someone who knows about it, but not him.

"i pulled 10yrs out of thin air as a admittedly pessimistic guess. " Come-on, pulling something out of your rear end then defending it to the end is not my idea of doing responsible due diligence.

Prove me wrong bucko. Show all of us where Bfan is correct that solar arrays last 10 years and not the 25-30 that experts say.

~~~~

For systems put "into service" between 2009 and 2016, the federal tax credit is 30%. That means that for solar electric systems put into service between Jan 1 2009 and Dec 31 2016, you will be able to get back 30% of the total cost of the system, with no cap for residential systems.

In most of Arizona, you can also get a $2.70 to $3.00 per watt rebate from APS or SRP. The federal 30% tax credit is total cost AFTER the rebate. Just for example, for a 5000 watt system where the total installed cost is $35,000, you would get (for example) $13,500 back from APS, so your cost for the system would be $21,500. You would get a 30% Federal tax rebate on that, so your total cost would be ($21.500 x .70) $15,050.

We then have another rebate from our state where you get:

Maximum Incentive: PV: 50% of project costs. Up-front incentive payment is limited to $75,000 SWH: 50% of system costs

The above quotes are directly from the state and federal rebate programs for solar energy here in Arizona.

~~~~

Lets see now.... 30% Federal rebate, 50% state rebate, that adds up to 80% of your costs, then you get from $2.70-$3.00 rebate per watt from the electricity company.

Guys we are getting close to 90-95% here. Just how expensive were you guys saying it was and when it would repay itself??? Hmmm wonder about how much this is going to help the value on my house?

Hey Ice guy, believe that I will just continue drinking that cool aid, as its putting money in my back pocket.

Joe A

I was discussing this thread with my FIL this evening. I am trying to get myself off the grid as much as possible but, unfortunately, I have to deal with potential hurricanes here so putting solar arrays on my roof is risky at best.

I just talked to a good friend and I am converting my a/c from its current 10 year old seer 12 to seer 19.5, the cost? About $6000 but the rebates from FP&L and the Gov will pay me back close to 60% of that. On top of that the cost to cool my home will drop 50% so this will pay for itself in about 3 years.

I am about to go solar on my hot water heater as well. I am currently electric and considering switching to propane + solar. Again, I am thinking hurricane as well here and this would be an optimum setup for me.

Now on to household electric, I would love to go windmill + solar and I am about to explore this but I do not think a windmill will go over well here in a subdivision.

Thanks for cranking out those number I am going to do more research here in Florida and see what incentives I have.

Hey Joe pass the cool aid this way.

[HardDrive]

Jesus do you guys need to get out more. 2 pages and everyone has their underwear in a knot.....over solar power.

[berettafan]

This is a big deal hd. Lots of your tax dollars are being thrown at this and you have an interest in making sure its right.