Your opinion of yourself has been noted.

If you had a cursory understanding of statistics you would realize how absurd this statement of yours is…

“for if it were all a numbers and stat model game why everyone would be a millionaire.”

Then again that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Let’s just leave it like this for now…

Tabs is the greatest, he knows more than anyone else, he feels the market moving before all others and any opinion he has about himself or any global capital market is instantly a fact.

No one else who frequents this board, no matter what their acedemic, occupational or practical experience in the markets is worthy of engaging the great and powerful Tabs.

Does that make you feel better?


One quick question, forgetting my decades of experience I just find these two statements in your last post odd, perhaps you could comment for us?
On the one hand you say this…

“I have lived with the Financail markets for so long I have gotten to know its habits, if not all the rationales. I can generally tell what the markets wants to do..since March of 09 it wants to go up..”


Then you go on to say this…


“I view the market as being organized chaos..and there is only the illusion rationality”

Do you see what I am getting at? In the first statement you are implying you know the “rationalities” of the market (I’ll assume English is your second language). Then, in the second statement you imply the market has no rationality”


Care to comment? (LOL)

Mother has been telling me I am one stuborn aZZhole who doesn't know enough to know when he has been gotten...But since when have i ever listened to Mother.

Don't you realize what feeds my EGO is listening to people like you...and to be more than fair to you other people on this Board as well. Most of whom are very bright and accomplished..and that is what astounds me, because if I can see your BS and the limitations in your thinking....I can define it...but then again I always was lucky in figurin out folks...

Maybe this will make it chrystal..The market is like a woman who you have lived with for a long time you recognize the moods and habits if not all the reasons (details) for why the moods takes place.

I could keep on reposting...Your a cliche as well...but where does that get us...and btw if I wanted to make a dig at you I would include that it would be childish to contiune to do so.....why because the inference would be is that your being chidish by continuing to repost..

I guess the solution to your comments was to edit your original post rather than comment on its contradiction. Precisely the reason I cut and pasted your post rather then multi quote as to preserve the original post.

Shall we assume you can not comment on the contradiction?

If you yourself haven't made millions off the market, then your market advice is worthless.

You just did!!!

You're right it is pointless since you believe that your opinion is fact beyond question, and all others despite their experience are immaterial.

In addition when your own circular logic was pointed out, rather than admitting you were wrong you chose to try and amend your prior post.


What would be the point in anyone attempting to have rational dialog with you given the two FACTS presented above?


I understand the vast anonymity of the internet can challenge the character of some people. I try to keep it real.

I wouldn't be trying so hardto convince you that I knew something if I discounted your experience as beiing material.

It can be viewed that way, but it is a mistake in judgment to have done so. Why because you have to realize if I wanted to make the dig I would just have stuck it in...without the disclaimer...it would have been far more affective, as it would have been chrystal instead of muddying up meaning with a disclaimer...

Every time you post you reinforce the one sidedness of your views, you tell people how they should think and how they should interpret your comments. Disclaimers have no value in the face of what you post.
When you want to open up your books one day let me know. Looking at your comments on this thread and others we all have a very clear idea about what you think of the global capital markets, but if you want to discuss specific topics and leave the opinions out I would be happy to help you. On the other hand if you want to pontificate about how the market is a woman it becomes only an exercise in self back patting for you. Perhaps someday you’d like to sit on the derivatives desk or equities desk, or I would be happy to take you down to any number of exchange floors and you can see your fantasy “woman” in person.

Excuse me for trying to explain my meaning with the use of analogies. As of late I am coming to the conclusion that I should have been more interested in and thus analyze the workings of the internal mechanisms of the market. However I came to it, whetehr it was by reading tea leaves or looking at and reading the lay of the turds at the bottom of the bowl after the morning dump and watching the swirl during the flush. I did know that SP500 1040 was a level of support where the market was bounceing off of...that the risk of moving lower was lessor and moving back up to the 1125 range was probable..That was my feeling and I stated as much at the time..

ok, folks - every body who said just 1 more page or 1 more day are WRONG - your $$ will be added to the remaining pool

How many SnP futures can you show us you bot at 1040?

Oh and there is no need to apologize for telling me how I should interpret your comments. That’s the point in a nutshell

Trader,
You obviously has many more sleepless nights than me. ;)

I was in the simple stuff of just protecting a client's money. I agree that that there is no simple solution to anyone's wealth. There are three or four good things that can happen (with another one hundred bad things every day).

I knew David and Jim Cramer from their days at Goldman. They were just traders like us. I got to know one better after he bought drinks at the bar (this was before the industry meet at the current Motel 6).

Tabs,
You need to back-off that keyboard. You may learn something. Please stop using your caps lock key. It is the first sign that you are not a player in an educated discussion.

You say that your are from the CA educational system? I graduated from the GA system, and I know not to cap this. I also know that STRATEDGY is properly spelled as strategy.

Yes. Where are you placing your beats? I can go short against you or otherwise take the other side.

You continue to amaze me with your worthless posts. You have insulted Wayne (who made this site for this site possible for us) while murdering the English
language.

You are the first guy on my ignore list (yes, you guys warned me).

OK educate me...I defer to your expertise...

One question...and Mother has already told me that a broken clock is right twice a day...to which I replied it was no guess that the market would bounce off of 1040...it was already a set pattern. That even to reiterate an idiot like myself noticed. So how did I perchance get it right...and my point in all of this is why didn't Wayne notice something so simple as a fool like myself noticed.

Now bear with me, and don't jump down my throat because of symantics. I view the market as an organic living breathing thing..it is populated with people making financial decisions whose collective decision making creat this living breathing enity that moves in one direction or another. And when you are a mouse sleeping next to an elephant one becomes observant and then atuned to what the elephants movements mean if not the reason why.

How else can I explain this intutive process.

BTW. A long time ago I put my effort into understanding people and the reasons why they do th ethings they do...as U said anything above the risk free requires sweat...throw in a little blood and tears into the mix... I have earned my clarity. I have started with nothing..but faith and determination. It was long ago said to me by an expert in the field that I am unique in the amount of determination that I have and that I recouncil problems.

Also I have been accused of pontificating. It was as the shadow of death came over the face of someone I loved very dearly that I said I would never doubt my perceptions again. Imagination, intution and instinct are very powerfull tools whose veracity can not be underestimated. It sometimes comes down to a matter of trust and faith that ones observations have merit. As a practioneer in the use of Imagination I have only scratched the surface.

Tabs HOW MANY S&P futures did you buy at 1040? Or did you bet a $1000 on the Saints winning the Super Bowl? My guess is that your honest answer to both of those is 0, and NO.

Wayne takes action on what he says. He shorted banks durning the crisis. He bought a 962and a 959. He took his money out of the market when he thought it was best for him to do. He even publicly admitted to buying a house when he thought it wasn't the best thing to do, from a financial perspective. He shows commitment to his "predictions."

Prediciting things is the easy part, the hard part is taking action on your "predicitions." Being able to say, "I told you so" on an internet forum isn't all that impressive.

It’s very simple… It’s easy to sit on the side line or dip your big toe in the water. When you are on the playing field you get measured differently. When you are in the game you get measured by … Shouting “how many are offered at 1040? takem, how do they come back”. Spouting on an automotive web board that you believe you have some sort of relationship with a living and breathing market and you can somehow time the markets has no more value than the pixels on the screen.

It’s wonderful to see you overflowing with excitement and enthusiasm, confidence will carry you to a certain pint but it’s no substitution for knowledge and experience.

Your internet ego clearly knows no boundaries but as I said early some people don’t have the character to handle the vast anonymity of the internet.

Vintage,
As a young man and a young trader I started in the 24 hour market of currencies, I made markets in currency options and since the underlying traded 24 hours a day I had a lot of sleepless nights. Nothing sucked more than getting a wakeup call from one of the desks we traded the cash with and having them confirm you got stopped out. Try going back to sleep after that one. It took me several years to learn that I could not take it personally. Fortunately I never worked on the retail or customer side. All the capital I have traded with over the years has been institutional money.

You do know there are psychological studies that show when a person watches something long enough they can start to recognize patterns. There was one study in paticular that showed that a basketball player on the sidleines could tell when another basketball was going to make his free throw shot or not.

Let us change the direction of this...If you sat back and thought about it for a moment and asked yourself which direction is this market going today, what does it feel like what is my gut feeling...You would just know..no magic no BS...it is because you do have that experience, you have seen it so many times.

Now if you really want to know what this is all about..what is happening is that all the information that you have seen, experienced over the years is stored in your BRAIN. It is called memory, nothing is forgotten it is all there. Now since most of it is not really germain it is stored in the SUBCONSCIENCE...yet when you see something happening on the subconsciene level that little micro computer you have called your brain is swirling around pulling up memory files and all of a sudden if you pay attention a little slip of paper comes up from the subconscience goes ding and the light goes on in your head and you go ahhhh yaaaa this is what is going on this is what is happening...was this simple enough for you to understand? HMMMMMMM

So you think I am full of shyte...well son you better start looking at your science..

It is not how many futures I bought...but it how much money I have in the Stock Market...let me put it to you this way I live or die by the Stock Market...

Fortunatley I have hedged my bet over the years...with hard assets.

What it comes down to Tradder you are the employee, cause it is my money you are dealing with.

How am I the “employee” I don’t manage any of your money. In fact I know each and every person who has capital in our fund personally.
For the 10 years prior to that we had 17 market makers on 4 different exchanges using all of our own capital, again nothing involving you.
For the 10 years prior to that I worked either directly for a huge foreign investment bank or one of their subsidiaries, and again that had nothing to do with you.

I have no idea how much money you have in the stock market right now and quite frankly you have no way of proving it. On top of that what some people think is a “lot of money” others have in the cracks of their couch, making it once again a moot point that what you think you have in the market means anything at all.


To quote you…”Let me put it to you this way” It must suck to have to live and die with just the stock market for many reasons. First off the US stock market is just one part of the global capital markets there are many other markets which are worth being involved with. Second, if you live and die with the market what are you doing with the rest of your life? Personally I would rather live and die for something worth more than money, like my kid and my wife and my family.


As has been a common theme throughout this thread.. You have an opinion, in this case that somehow you and only you can see patterns or tells in the markets that no one else in history has ever been able to see, and you are 100% sure that whatever opinion you have about anything is an absolute fact. Anyone who does not accept your opinion as fact is somehow flawed in their views. The street is littered with guys who traded on “gut feeling”.


So why do you waste so much time on this board why aren’t you standing in the SnP futures pit? You want to see the market live in breath in person? You want to find your fantasy market woman? That’s where she exists.



Are you aware that there are hundreds of millions of shares which trade on US exchanges every day that you don’t ever get to see or know that traded? Not to mention the myriad of derivative products which you have no basis on how to price and what effect they have on the US equity markets.
Its rather amusing to watch you back track, edit your posts and try desperately to turn the conversation away from the facts. Oh right, you believe your opinions are facts.

WAKE UP...the point I have been driving home is the BRAIN AND FUNCTION OF MEMORY IN RECOGNIZING PATTERNS...that is science hoss and unless you renounce and deny SCIENCE..you WILL HAVE TO RECOGNIZE you have been had...a sucker.

I’ve been had?...... I am your employee? (what happened to your explanation of how I am an employee of yours?)

You pick off patterns in a ballgame, you can pick off the tell of the guy across the poker table from you, you can study the patterns in the migration of African sparrows and you can draw conclusions from those things. It’s a scientific fact you can study those things and draw opinions on the future.
As no reader here should be surprised you think that you can then predict the future, but in the end it’s no more than an opinion on the future and not a FACT.

On the other hand HISTORY has proven over and over that trying to time the patterns in the market is futile.
Which shockingly enough brings us to yet another massive contradiction of yours… on the one hand you’re screaming science as if you’re an expert on the human brain, then on the other hand you blab on about gut feelings.
Three cheers for the entertainment you bring!!

Two questions still remain which you have thus far ducked like a champ.

1) How many futures did you buy at 1040 and actually put your money where your mouth is?
2) How am I an employee of yours?


Anyone? Bueller?

So I was right. Zero on the S&P's and Nothing of significance on the superbowl.

Two things of which you knew the outcome before either started and you did absolutely nada.

It's not how much money you have invested in the stock market that matters, its that you had a "guaranteed" profit in the S&P and you did NOTHING. There are 100's of ways you could have made millions many times over if you knew the market was going higher, and you sat there typing on the computer twiddling your thumbs. If you need help I'll introduce to a couple of ideas (for a fee of course).

Your actions mirror Waynes. He took profits off the table, and so did you. Only difference is Wayne never claimed to know what the organic market was going to do.

- you have no idea whatsoever what science is

of course, adding one count to the ignorance accumulation is not surprising, is it?

ZEARO FUTURE to be honest and asnswer your question. Howeger that is not the question to ask. The question to ask is did I have skin in the game..and the answer is yeah...did I shyte my pants and decide to pull out when the market was looking like it was breaking down ..No I stayed in the game. Why because my past experience of watching the market everyday told me that the mostly likelyt scenario was that the SP 500 was going to bounce off of 1040

Why does past experience ..not only mine but yours as well...count...because as I explained Brain funcion and memory as a function of pattern recognition.

What you don't get is the way i explained it to you was in my own language in my owqn terminlogy...If I had come up to you and had first explained this is about brain function yours and mine and the rest of the human races...U would of said yeah that makes sense...

You are NOT directly an employee of mine, but you are an employee of guys like me.

The reason why you were had..succkered in..is you didn't listen towhat I was saying...you didn't think about it.. you didn't give me the benefit of the doubt and even try to work out the problem .you just jumped into the fire..without thinking...Ohhh that sounds stupid so it must be...

I know a gal here in LV that walked into a Porsche dealer ship with 100K cash in her purse wanting to buy a Porsche that day..they wouldn't even give her a test drive because of the way she was dressed in blue jeans, sneakers and a pull over shirt..So appearences don't always match reality..

I don't gamble...and I have skin in the game everyday...and as such I can either shyte my pants AND pull my investment or I can stay in the game...I stayed in the game with MY MONEY because I knew the likely thing to happen was the SP500 was going to bounce off of 1040. Howe many time do I have to explaine it you BOYZ beofre you get the message.

I have a sneaking suspicion that your market hunches are in your conscience, but the reason why you posted was from your subconscious.

Wayne's posts on his investing are interesting. I enjoy reading what 'real people' do and why they do it. I'm not saying that it applies here, but the right hand side of a head and shoulders looks like a 'trading range'.

Of course one has to have an opinion in order to offer one..Then we have to care about your opinion..which from my past experince with you lacks credibility. So I have to discount your comments by about 95%..the 5% remaining is just to make sure that I don't miss a nugget of truth.

Let me help you out here…


The brains ability to recognize patterns is a generally accepted fact. For example if I posted this…


A B A B A B….. You would say the next letter in that pattern is what?

History has also shown us that the patterns in the market are vastly more complex and the human brain even with the help of all of mankind’s best technology can not accurately predict the next days or next hours or next minute’s price action.

Do you know how we know this to be an absolute fact? If that ability existed the markets as we know them would cease to exist. If it were able to accurately predict the markets in a given time frame then you could essentially be the entire market in anything traded anywhere.

Now for the third time let’s try and get a few answers out of you about statements you made okay?


How many futures did you buy at 1040? The answer appears to be ZERO, despite the fact you knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that the market would rally from there and you could have made multi millions of dollars on a relatively small investment. Any comments you make about having “skin” in the game is irrelevant. I already showed you that claims about money, wealth and material goods on line are moot.

How am I your employee or now an employee of guys like you? I already told you I am 100% certain you have NO capital placed with my firm. I am also 100% certain that those who do are well researched and pay a fee for the privilege of placing capital with us. Can you present a single “fact” which would substantiate your claim that I somehow work for you or guys like you?

Shocking... no one's opinion but yours counts man I am so surprised to see you post something like that.

It is just a bit more than the long term or short term memory..I just knew for whatever reason 1040 was going to be about it...and it was going to go back the other way...BTW..gut feeling has nothing to do with emotion..

However U Boyz want to rationalize it...go ahead..I don't care..I am on the record of calling it and you have to deal with that reality.

I have tried to explain it every way I can think of ..it ain't magic..it is just something human beings can do if they pay attention.. It is like ohh yeah that is what is going on..

Come on!

Don't stop now............ I've got money on this!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I need 1 more page to win.

Well I am certainly curious as to why you don't act on these "gut feelings" and own the market?

:D

I'm sending Webby $5 too.

Tabs has taken a good licking, but he keeps coming back up for more....

I am shocked another contradiction

I can not see all the bends in the river, nor all the sand bars...but I can and do see the direction the river is flowing in...

For simplicity let us just say that there are one he11 of a lot of tanactions and decisons made everyday, every hour, every minute. The complexity of which is unfathomable..The averages posted is a synthesis of all those trades...I think you will agree with this.

I think of the market as being organic or living enity because living flesh and blood SUBJECTIVE..emotional human beings are making the decisions or telling the comptuer when to execute those decisons..can you see it and do you agree.

Since these organic beings are making transactions whose collective synthesis is reflected in the averages being posted the averages are a snapshot of what this elephant beast for lack of a better term looks like at any given moment.

If you watch that elephant beast long enough you may begin to understand the habits and patterns of the beast if not the reasons why the elephant is doing those things.. So if you should see an elephant come up to a corner eveyday at 8 and turn right the next time you see that elephant come up to the corner which way do you think he will turn..that is not to say the elephant can not surprise you as it just might be his day off and insteadd of going to work he turns left and goes to the beach. But then next time you will factor in the day of the week as well and see if a pattern exists there.


I told you, you were a cliche and you are proving my point. I find your ability to think out of the box to be minimal.

Your mistake..I never said it was emotional..you just assumed that was what I meant...

AND to be fair..to you..I might not have clarified the point...

Wow good thing you said that who would have thought that your post..

Originally Posted by tabs
BTW..gut feeling has nothing to do with emotion..


was technically not emotional, I mean just because you used the word didnt mean you meant it right?

I bid you adieu my new friend.
You steadfastly refuse to accept any facts other than your own opinions which you mistake as facts.

Just remember one thing… If any man, woman or machine could accurately predict and time the markets the markets themselves as we know them would no longer exist.