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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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Aothernother Fine Mess Waye Has Gotten Himself Into
Hmmm I do recall Wayne decided to pull his investment in the Stock Market about a month ago. The SP500 was at 1045 at the time. Since then the Stock Market has done NOTHING BUT GO UP...Today the SP 500 CLOSED at 1148...
I also recall stating at the time that the SP 500 at 1040 was it's support level and thus represented a bottom of the trading range...Well the Market has blown through the upper end of the trading range and is poised to go even higher. Now why is this....Simply the M2 supply has been increasing..and that money has to go somewhere... On Friday morning I was listening to a Mr Tepper of the Appaloosa Group who has 12.4B under management...and has a history of making 20% + ROI...He is Bullish for 2 reasons...The economy will get better on its own OR the Fed will institute QE2..which in affect is called printing money...Either way that liquidity has to go somewhere...and that somewhere is the Stock Market..
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Copyright "Some Observer" |
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09-25-2010, 12:44 AM
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Bandwidth AbUser
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: SoCal
Posts: 29,522
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Forget about Wayne! How am I making out?
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Jim R. |
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09-25-2010, 04:10 AM
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beancounter
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Weehawken, NJ
Posts: 3,593
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When someone cashes in their chips while they are ahead and walks away with some cash, doesn't qualify as a "mess" in my book. Perhaps this was part of a portfolio rebalancing strategy...exit equities, enter Porsche 962.
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Jacob Current: 1983 911 GT4 Race Car / 1999 Spec Miata / 2000 MB SL500 / 1998 MB E300TD / 1998 BMW R1100RT / 2016 KTM Duke 690 Past: 2009 997 Turbo Cab / 1979 930 |
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09-25-2010, 04:57 AM
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Alter Ego Racing
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Florida
Posts: 5,553
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Realized vs unrealized gains (or losses). I like my gains realized and my losses unrealized...
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International GT Champion; Porsche GT3 Cup Trophy Champion; Klub Sport Challenge Champion; Rolex Vintage Endurance Series Champion; PCA Club Racing Champion; National Vintage Racing Champion |
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09-25-2010, 05:15 AM
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Crusty Conservative
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When all the Smart folks are saying stay in; that is the time to get out...
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Bill 69 911 T Targa, 2.4E w/carbs (1985-2001) 70 911 S Coupe, 2nd owner (1989- 2015) 73 911 T Targa, 3.2 Motronic (2001- ) |
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09-25-2010, 06:02 AM
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"YOU CANT RACE A CAB."
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i dont think the 962 is an "investment". actually its worse than a boat(hole in water you sink money into). with ANY racecar you need to be realistic and understand REALITY!
1) racing is a loss from day 1. unless of course you win. and even then since its vintage racing you'll be lucky if the purse pays for your gas for the race let alone your mcdonalds tab for your crew. 2) as far as the IRS is concerned for a race car to be a write off you must be professionally racing with ACTIVE SPONSORS! 3) unless you get a full ride sponsorship, well let the money tree start dropping benjamins. 4) the IRS demands a receipt for every damn penny spent on a racey car. 5) the IRS LOVES AN AUDIT on racey cars(ask me how i know???) 6) the reality of any race car is its gonna send your wallet through the wash/spin cycle so fast and hard no matter who the hell you are or how many pesos ya got. 7) the IRS aint STOO-PID and if you state you are "professionally" racing, you better be running a series and have documentation to that effect. showing up at (1) race and writing off a full year of parts,mcdonalds,hotels,fuel AINT GONNA GET IT! 8) as some "anti-dee-vorce" insurance, just give wifey credit card and some vodka each week and tell her to go on a drunken spending spree, because thats what YOU ARE DOING with a race car. 9) have a damn good body shop available 24/7/365 you are gonna need it sooner or later. 10) once you WIN 1st place for the 1st time, you are HOOKED and the symptoms get worse by the minute, and the visa card orders for parts escalate to the moon. this is the TERMINAL/ACUTE STAGE. the only way you will EVER be anything racing is own a shop that is full service on whatever your racing, check "professional racing" on IRS page, have a hell of a lot of "friends" helping you for dirt cheap, a wad of BENJAMINS a mile thick,................ and not give a damn ONE IOTA what happens to the car and not think of the massive infusion of dollars into it ONE IOTA! for the very moment YOU THINK about the DOLLARS "invested"...................YOU HAVE LOST the race! the ONLY GIVENS for a race car are: 1) you will spend ALOT of money 2) you will SCARE the hell out of yourself 3) you will have some FUN here and there 4) YOU will WRECK IT sooner or later.
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if there are TROUT..........there are BEARS! |
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09-25-2010, 06:54 AM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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Quote:
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Copyright "Some Observer" |
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09-25-2010, 11:11 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Palm Beach, Florida, USA
Posts: 7,713
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Folks won't recognize it now, but this thread is one of, if not the most significant thread on the board since the crash. The reason is that Herr Tabdullah is the first to note the economic sign we have been waiting to see: money supply growth. It's hard to overstate how important this is. The scope of the problem has been so vast that it is breathtaking Despite trillions of Dollars pumped into the economy, the economy has continued to shink; but more alarmingly, the money supply has been shrinking. That is just astounding. Pouring money into the economy and watching the money supply contract is like watching water flow up hill.
Anyway, the first sign of economic recovery is expansion in the money supply. I have not been paying attention so I didn't see it before Tabs' told us about it. I'll look into it a little more, specifically what's going on with M1, but if the money supply really is expanding, the recession really is over and the stock market is the place to be. I will be carefully but quickly putting my money back into the market. I've already noticed financial stocks strengthening uexpectedly. The market isn't likely to take off, but what the money supply is telling us is that the stock market will generally and broadly increase with good returns. Inflation is still not in sight. Comodities are expensive and getting more expensive, but demand will ot supprt significant price increases. Inflation and interest rates will remain low for at least the next two years.
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MRM 1994 Carrera |
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09-25-2010, 12:36 PM
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Registered
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Palm Beach, Florida, USA
Posts: 7,713
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Hmmmm I just looked at the latest gross numbers and don't see anything about M1 or M2 to write home about. Carry on. But do keep your eyes on the money supply. A firm expansion of the money supply will be to the stock market like robins are to spring.
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MRM 1994 Carrera |
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09-25-2010, 12:43 PM
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Registered
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Lake Cle Elum - Eastern WA.
Posts: 8,417
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Bob S. 73.5 911T 1969 911T Coo' pay (one owner) 1960 Mercedes 190SL 1962 XKE Roadster (sold) - 13 motorcycles |
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09-26-2010, 07:24 AM
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Proprietoristicly Refined
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: ~Carefree Highway~
Posts: 5,833
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I appreciate the comments posted on the boards. Staying long is not an investment choice.
I invested in gold/miners and got out at 1178. I do not feel I missed the rally to 1300. I will fully invest in PM & markets when "granny" says to  Video posted as an example of investment manipulation. 2010 investments----Down 3 times Up 4. John
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1988 924S, 85,750K ..+ 1987 924S, 154K DD (+15K est. bad odo) |
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09-26-2010, 10:25 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Long Beach CA, the sewer by the sea.
Posts: 37,694
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09-26-2010, 10:46 AM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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The Stock Market is not strictly a numbers game..if it were everybody would get rich..the Market is an organic creature...At 1040 on the SP 500 i had watched over and over again the buyers come in...it is the perceived bargain point...Mr Tepper noted that at 1000 on the SP500 he backs the truck up and BUYS...in other words he shifts his model to nelrly 100% equities.. Ironically Support levels are self fulling prophecys as it is the peception that it is a buying point that makes it so...
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Copyright "Some Observer" Last edited by tabs; 09-26-2010 at 12:08 PM.. |
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09-26-2010, 11:56 AM
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Unconstitutional Patriot
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: volunteer state
Posts: 5,620
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Pray tell, exactly what "mess" is Wayne in, now? Missing out on paper gains qualifies as a "mess?"
Given your constant lectures about how the US has been going to hell for the past few decades, your fascination with short-term market moves is perplexing. A little restraint, tabs, my friend. Try it, please. |
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09-26-2010, 01:05 PM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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Copyright "Some Observer" |
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09-26-2010, 02:13 PM
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"YOU CANT RACE A CAB."
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from my very humbling experience with the IRS and being AUDITED(invitation aka happy mail, sent from ogden,utah) any time you say "racecar"/"racing team" it is an AUTOMATIC RED FLAG w/the IRS!
since being in sales/sales mgmt all my life you are taught "salesmens expense accts 101" at a very early age and you learn real fast to keep EVERY DAMN RECEIPT no matter how small as obviously they all add up in the end. the lil navajo IRS girl and i literally went over EVERY RECEIPT for hours. compressing an entire year of race expenses into a day. talk about having your pencils SHARP and hers were, as she had (3), a sharpener and a big ERASER(scarey). talk about a STACK of papers! when all was said and done, i left being owed by uncle sam over $1100 bucks as i had NOT claimed enough and had found some more receipts. my tax guy had been doing taxes for 34 years and only had this happen to him once! so when anyone decides to go "professional " racing, take some time with your CPA and go over what you can and cannot do as far as "write offs". many people are mistaken as to what a legit write off is. and finding out that what you thought was a write off and what the IRS deems a write off, can be complete polar opposites. and the IRS wrote the book and they ALWAYS WIN!
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if there are TROUT..........there are BEARS! |
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09-27-2010, 03:38 AM
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Unconstitutional Patriot
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: volunteer state
Posts: 5,620
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Better hope you're right. Bump this thread in a year, won't we?
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09-27-2010, 04:03 AM
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Work in Progress
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"The reason most people give up is because they look at how far they have to go, not how far they have come." -Bruce Anderson via FB -Marine Blue '87 930 |
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09-27-2010, 04:55 AM
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Former Options Trader !!!
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bucks County PA
Posts: 6,756
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[QUOTE=tabs;5582315]I do not care how U want to slice it...getting out at 1045 on the SP500 was a poor risk to reward decison....your downside risk at that point was minimal because 1040 was the BOTTOM OF THE TRADING RANGE...If you had wanted out you should have waited to get clsoer to the top of the range. And then you should have pulled the money out incrementally...You sold out at the BOTTOM..you lost out on a 10% move...even an idiot like myself knows that...
QUOTE] That’s very easy to say now that the month is over. Things and phrases like “trading range” are nothing more than opinions based on your own criteria. I would say that Wayne’s criteria were different than yours. Also, when you use a phrase like “poor risk reward” you need a qualifier since what some consider “poor” others would consider prudent based on their own definition of poor. Sure at the end of Sept is easy to sit back and criticize but the question is what’s the point of doing that? In hindsight we all should have taken New Orleans in the super bowl last year… big deal that’s easy to say now. Being a “trader” and managing money are two vastly different things. You talk about “buyers coming in and in” LOL you don’t see 1/100th of the market and you don’t know what motivates who or what positions they have on in all kinds of connected markets. Ask me how I know…
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Current:88 Guards Red Coupe, 89 Coupe Track Rat, 76 Caddy Eldo Convert. 2015 Aprilia Tuono Wrecked 1987 Targa Guards Red, 2003 Ducati ST4S Sold 1987 Granite Green Targa, 993's, 93 RSA, other 964 coupes, 89 911 Turbo Ruf mods, 90 e30 M3, 07 BMW R1200S STOLEN 94 Speedster |
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09-28-2010, 08:04 AM
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A Man of Wealth and Taste
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Out there somewhere beyond the doors of perception
Posts: 51,063
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[QUOTE=trader220;5585402]
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SO there is NO FKIN HINDSIGHT ON THIS ONE..... Ohhh and if you recall I called New Orleans BEFORE THE GAME EVEN STARTED...there is even a Thread on it...
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Copyright "Some Observer" Last edited by tabs; 09-28-2010 at 08:57 AM.. |
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09-28-2010, 08:50 AM
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1970 Porsche 911S 2.2l MFI
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Bruiser
