Aothernother Fine Mess Waye Has Gotten Himself Into

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Originally Posted by scottbombedout

I'm sending Webby $5 too.

Tabs has taken a good licking, but he keeps coming back up for more....

Who thinks this guy can take me...

This guy keeps telling me I am full of shyte...and I keep coming back with logic

This guy is a hard headed bull who is standing his ground because he thinks I am confronting his career experience in the Stock Market..but that is not what I am really arguing..I give him his experience I can never match it...I would have to live to about 100 to do so..What I am arguing is that over a period of time you can get to know something so well that you just have a sense of knowing what is going to happen next..whether it is the market, the economy or whatever.

Let us take spoons for example..S&W 686's I have a watched them sell up and down the USA for the past coupla years at least. No matter where in the country I can just about guarntee that they will sell in a range of 450 to 575 plus buyers premium at auction which will bring them up to over 600...How do I knw this, because I have watched them sell for so long....I have noticed 686 prices are on the rise...since december...so the higher end of the trading range is begining to be the norm rather than the exception.

Now can I substitiute the SP 500 for a S&W 686...

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Originally Posted by trader220

I bid you adieu my new friend.
You steadfastly refuse to accept any facts other than your own opinions which you mistake as facts.

Just remember one thing… If any man, woman or machine could accurately predict and time the markets the markets themselves as we know them would no longer exist.

Well when you think what your saying is right .you stand by what you believe to be true.

Here is what I think and I could be wrong..

The market beast since 3/09 has wanted to go higher..after its fall of 2008 deflationary plunge a stabilization has occurred in the financial sector,the market has returned to more of a fair value or equilibrium state as a result of this stabilization...this was a natural occurrence since markets over react one way or another and will return to equilibrium...So now we have climbed up out of the pit..the market for all the negativity and wall of worry keeps coming back every time it falls down...the market will climb to a certain level and the sellers come in to take profits as they are skittish..or they will react to some negative news. but the point is that the market will keep on rebounding..It seems that the level of support is right around that SP1040 level...as that is where the buyers for lack of a better term see opportunity..The trading ranges are basicaaly based upon the technical or statistical analysis of the market, that tells the Traders where to step in and when to step off the train.

My guess is that with corporate earning being very solid over the last few quarters, the amount of cash on the sidelines...and a lack of an alternative investment without a negative ROI the stock market wants to go higher..but that wall of worry and gun shy skittishness keeps a reign on just how far up it will move...The market will probably trade in ever higher trading ranges...consolidating each range before moving higher..

In my estimation..the market with the solid quarterlies should be trading higher but that wall of worry keeps the reigns held tight..

The game changer will be when the the Bond bubble looses its luster..and money starts flowing out of Bonds...interest rate will move higher..So what happens to that money where will it be invested? Will the stock market be the investment of choice or will the prospect of higher interest rates and an attending economic slow down cause a market decline. Also with the Fed activity going to QE2 this will effectively keep interest rates low for as long as they can keep it up. QE2 will have a positive affect on the market but a big negative on the USD...

So here is the game strategy.. odds on favorite..with QE2 and the affect of having at least a somewhat stronger economy going forward. A likely Republican victory in Congress which nullifys Zero...and his Communist agenda..the road for the stock market to go higher is open and is looking good as it offeres a beter ROI than just about anything else.

Now don't forget this is all in outsider layman's terms..but that is the feel of the thing..

[on2wheels52]

"What I am arguing is that over a period of time you can get to know something so well that you just have a sense of knowing what is going to happen next..whether it is the market, the economy or whatever."

Zen investing, perhaps? I had some sucess with that method.
Jim

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Originally Posted by trader220

I bid you adieu my new friend.
You steadfastly refuse to accept any facts other than your own opinions which you mistake as facts.

Just remember one thing… If any man, woman or machine could accurately predict and time the markets the markets themselves as we know them would no longer exist.

Today between posts I took a few glances at where the market was going...I thought it would close in positive territory..I was wrong..

I think that the market for the most part the market has reached the higher end of its trading range and some selling is going to take place..question is where do the buyers step back in...and start to support the market...do we go back to SP 1040? I don't think so...