WWIII will be a Financial War

[Buckterrier]

Brazil has passed the USA as trading partners with China. We're modern day Romans.

[audiman08]

The U.S. experienced its' zenith about 50 years ago. If there's anything I learned as a history major, it was that the U.S. is quite imperfect. I have no sympathy for what we ourselves have caused...

[red-beard]

WWIII is over, the USA won. It was known as the cold war. WWIV is the war on Terror.

WWV is what you're talking about...

[Buckterrier]

Originally Posted by audiman08

The U.S. experienced its' zenith about 50 years ago. If there's anything I learned as a history major, it was that the U.S. is quite imperfect. I have no sympathy for what we ourselves have caused...

I don't either. But then again I have no children.

Originally Posted by red-beard

WWIII is over, the USA won. It was known as the cold war. WWIV is the war on Terror.

WWV is what you're talking about...

Spot on Red-Beard. But we haven't even won the war on terror yet

[tabs]

I have described what the Chinese are dong before. Simply put the Chinese are aghast at the USA and it leadership. For decades the Chinese have gotten in bed with the USA as being #1. Now they see that we are not dealing with reality so they are trying their best to get around the USA. (The Russians and Chinese have recently signed a deal to NOT USE USD's for their trade exchange).

The Chinese do not want to go down with a sinking USA, as that is how they view America. The USA being the largest economy in the world would suck down all other economies in the world if we should fall today. That is the object of the Chinese and others to avoid going down with the USA. They need time to work out trading partnerships and will help prop up the USA until that goal is accomplished.

To this end China is developing a Blue Water Navy, as they see that the USA in the medium term will no longer be able to sustain its military presence of being the Police Man to the world. So either they are preparing to take up that mantle or are covering themselves by being able to provide their own security. Until now the Chinese have been content with allowing the USA to continue its role for providing world security.

It is a mistake to think of the Chinese being adversarial to the USA. The Chinese are intent on doing what is best for themselves. If that should go against the wishes of the USA it does not mean they are intent on conflict. The Chinese out of demographics and momenteum will become the largest economy in the world in several decades. This is while the USA fritters away its leadership role economically, politically and creatitivily across the boards. As stated long ago by myself the USA is going to become the SICK MAN OF THE WORLD or in other words the USA is going to become like the Austro Hungarian or Ottoman Empire of pre WW1 Europe.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by audiman08

The U.S. experienced its' zenith about 50 years ago.

Where did U read that? Time Magazine?

YA Can't Put Humpty Dumpty Back Together Again 08/05/2010 - 11:14 — tabs
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You don't have to tell me things are bad, worse than bad. But the sky isn't going to fall, the end isn't nye and we are not doomed. What is going to happen and we are well on the road to this end is that the USA is just not going to be as prosperous nor as powerful as it once was.

The Middle Class is going to shrink, there is going to be a relatively large underclass of working people and unemployed. Wages for the American worker are going to more closely parallel that of the worlds wage structure and the living standard is going to decline. The economy of the USA is going to more closely resemble 1910 than its post war heyday of 1960.

What truly amazes is the lack of vision on the part of ALL the economists, politicos and media. These people don't seem to understand the historic inevitability of this end. It does seem that they are stuck in the present and when trying to remedy problems are trying to formulate some grand plan that will "fix" America so that it can retain its supremacy in the world. What these people fail to realize is the fact that it took one step, one decision at a time over a number of decades to reach the situation America now faces. To "fix" the problem a grand plan of action or legislation is not going to work for any plan is based on present knowledge and conditions and can not foresee future conditions or problems. One gets themselves into trouble one step at a time and one gets one self out of trouble the same way. Anything else is simply not going to work. That is not to say that one can not have a direction or policy to move towards.

Further all the efforts to rectify America's problems is like the kings men trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again for these same economists etal also fall to understand the arc of history. Again they seem rooted in the moment or at best looking back a mere decade. To get a truly accurate assessment of Americas current status one has to look at its economic and political history going back 65 years.

After WW2 America entered into an unprecedented wealth building Post War Prosperity Boom that lasted roughly 20 years. This prosperity boom was fueled by 5 main ingredients

1. America was the only unscathed industrial power in the world and the world needed rebuilding.

2. The GI's returning from WW2 started families and needed everything refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, cars and houses.

3. After WW2 there was a dearth of consumer goods as very few were produced from 1930 to 1945 due to the Great Depression and the World War. Thus there was 15 years worth of pent up demand.

4. The rise of the large middle class, where a man without an education could attain middle class status was due to corporations thinking that they were making so much money that they could meet Union demands for higher wages. These corporations felt they would lose more money by going on strike than paying its workers higher wages and benefits.

5. The Cold War demanded that higher military budgets be kept in place. This one might say was a continual government stimulus program.

By 1965 this unprecedented status began to change first with competition from Europe and Japan and later Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, China, India and Brazil. If one remembers the first of the American industries to fall to foreign competition was the American ship building industry, followed by autos, steel and electronics..remember those American icons of American electronics Zenith,, RCA, and Westinghouse? This trend has continued on to this very day.

Also one has to mention the inflection point where the US government and society in general began to feel that as a "Rich" nation we could afford it all without consequence and that was the day LBJ put the SS Trust into the General Account in 1968. This act merely disguised the true national debt by using an accounting gimmick of placing that debt into accounts payable.

By examining the causative factors that led to the Great American Prosperity Boom of the post war period one has to realize those conditions that created it no longer exist, there is a new paradigm at work. America is saturated with consumer goods, debt and is faced with continually steeper competition in the world. The mere fact that American politicians are trying to resurrect the past is in of itself a causative agent for failure. America has to face this new reality and not try and delude itself into thinking Humpty Dumpty can be put back together again.

BTW this went out to Charlie R, the NYT and various other mostly Republican political operatives in August. Fahreed Zakaria of TIME nearly word for word parapharased this piece in his last vistit to Charlie.

[audiman08]

Originally Posted by tabs

Where did U read that? Time Magazine?

No, I actually have a degree in history. Not all was well following World War II. There were two general recessions in the 1950s, in '53 and '58. The 1960s was torn by the Civil Rights Movement and the Vietnam War. In the 1970s, manufacurers began to send operations oversees en masse. The mid to late 1980s and early 1990s were okay, due to financial prosperity and the fall of the Soviet Union. The Clinton years were good financially, but we failed to address Islamic Radicalism in time. Thus, I would say that the U.S. had its' real zenith about 50 years ago (1960), ever since then it's been a (mostly down-hill) roller-coaster.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by audiman08

No, I actually have a degree in history. Not all was well following World War II. There were two general recessions in the 1950s, in '53 and '58.

Is anything ALWAYS WELL....In 1950 the US produced 50% of the worlds goods today 21%.

[patssle]

as they see that the USA in the medium term will no longer be able to sustain its military presence of being the Police Man to the world.

That won't happen. They'll print money to keep the military industrial complex at full strength. Look at it now, we're pumping billions of dollars into ****hole 3rd world countries through our military - and there's no slowing down. Plus if anybody tries to cut military funding, Republicans scream bloody murder.

[surflvr911sc]

Sure smells like a PARF thread.

[audiman08]

Originally Posted by tabs

Is anything ALWAYS WELL....In 1950 the US produced 50% of the worlds goods today 21%.

Exactly, doesn't that show that the U.S. isn't the "powerhouse" it used to be?

[audiman08]

Originally Posted by surflvr911sc

Sure smells like a PARF thread.

lol...yes it does, and I've been trying to stay out of PARF...

[tabs]

Originally Posted by audiman08

No, I actually have a degree in history. Not all was well following World War II. There were two general recessions in the 1950s, in '53 and '58. The 1960s was torn by the Civil Rights Movement and the Vietnam War. In the 1970s, manufacurers began to send operations oversees en masse. The mid to late 1980s and early 1990s were okay, due to financial prosperity and the fall of the Soviet Union. The Clinton years were good financially, but we failed to address Islamic Radicalism in time. Thus, I would say that the U.S. had its' real zenith about 50 years ago (1960), ever since then it's been a (mostly down-hill) roller-coaster.

If U recall corporations in the late 80's got lean and mean by getting rid of the dead wood middle management personnel as a means of becoming competitive with Nippon. This by the 90's started to pay off for corporations.

Also you are referring to the lessening of military expenditure due to not having an adversarial relationship with the USSR anymore.

However what generally is not seen is the revaluation of depressed assets once the Cold War and the threat of anhiliaton was over and then there was the coming of age of technlogy, which increased the productivity of the American worker. Not to mention the sales of that tech to other nations.

If you recall there was a thing called the "END OF HISTORY"

One might view the Clinton years as a huge sigh of relief that we had won the Cold War..as such America turned inward by not paying as much atttention to foreign affairs. We also had what I term as an after the war party atomsphere after the rigours of the Cold War. So Clinton was the perfect Party Animal President for the times.

[audiman08]

Originally Posted by tabs

If U recall corporations in the late 80's got lean and mean by getting rid of the dead wood middle management personnel as a means of becoming competitive with Nippon. This by the 90's started to pay off for corporations.

Also you are referring to the lessening of military expenditure due to not having an adversarial relationship with the USSR anymore.

However what generally is not seen is the revaluation of depressed assets once the Cold War and the threat of anhiliaton was over and then there was the coming of age of technlogy, which increased the productivity of the American worker. Not to mention the sales of that tech to other nations.

If you recall there was a thing called the "END OF HISTORY"

One might view the Clinton years as a huge sigh of relief that we had won the Cold War..as such America turned inward by not paying as much atttention to foreign affairs. We also had what I term as an after the war party atomsphere after the rigours of the Cold War. So Clinton was the perfect Party Animal President for the times.

I agree with a lot of this, I still don't think the U.S. is (or will be) what it used to be though...

[tabs]

Originally Posted by audiman08

Exactly, doesn't that show that the U.S. isn't the "powerhouse" it used to be?

This was specifically meant to reference that in the scheme of things even though the US had recessions in the 50's the USA was Prosperous. Just think of the increasing size of Tail Fins on 50's cars as a symbol of the prosperity and power.
59 Caddy !!!

[tabs]

Originally Posted by audiman08

I agree with a lot of this, I still don't think the U.S. is (or will be) what it used to be though...

Hmmmm..somehow I think that has been postulated before!

Ohh yeah, I said this...

"By examining the causative factors that led to the Great American Prosperity Boom of the post war period one has to realize those conditions that created it no longer exist, there is a new paradigm at work."

[tabs]

Originally Posted by patssle

That won't happen. They'll print money to keep the military industrial complex at full strength. Look at it now, we're pumping billions of dollars into ****hole 3rd world countries through our military - and there's no slowing down. Plus if anybody tries to cut military funding, Republicans scream bloody murder.

You are being myopic..The money they print has to have value..and if the value is debased...and just how long will that take at the current rate of printing?

[Buckterrier]

Originally Posted by tabs

You are being myopic.

Tabs, you know once you use that word it's a thread killer

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Anyone who thinks China wants anything less than the complete control of the entire globe is delusional. They are very patient and if it takes them 1000 years, so be it - but I have no doubts whatsoever about their goals.

[sc_rufctr]

The fact is the Chinese are the most successful race of people on the planet.

Eventually the world economy will be led by the Chinese. The real question is can anything be done to stop that happening?
Do we even want to stop that happening?