Anybody buying FB today?

[Neilk]

Originally Posted by techweenie

Early indications are that the stock is going to $70 or better today.

Hope so... I somehow got 50 shares at $38 from ETrade. I wasn't expected to get any shares. I definitely won't get rich with 50 shares, but if I can get 1k by just asking for shares, I'll take it.

[techweenie]

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey

FB impressions, IMHO, are worthless. Ad placement is not optimal, they are too small, they are static, they don't appear to be targeted/relevant. In short there is nothing to make them attractive. So it generates an impression because it showed up on the page but did it really make an impression? To me they are noise that I tune out, and I'm an old fart.

And I agree, FB is not an old fart play. That's the other problem with it. The 20 somethings don't engage with/react to "traditional" advertising like old farts do.

They don't like being "pitched". They like to be engaged. Big difference.

They are smart enough to know that their attention has value so unless you are offering them something in return they will ignore it.

Not sure if you're aware, but all your 'anti-impression' arguments can be made against any ad medium.

[widebody911]

Originally Posted by Christien

Let me as this: how many of you guys have ever actually clicked on an ad on facebook. Or anywhere else for that matter? I don't think I ever have, at least not deliberately. Ever.

This. Not even the ones with a scantily-clad chick with huge tracts of land claiming to teach the secrets of real estate investing.

[island911]

Originally Posted by techweenie

...
FB has a long way to go before saturation, it's a new-generation play, not for old farts who have little use for what it brings. ...

Yeah, that's the story.
Martha Stewart had a story too.
Mark Z is young himself, so clearly he sees that he can get MUCH more out of FB by selling now. That is, if FB truly is a long play then MarkZ would just ride it with private ownership. I mean really... FB needs to raise capital? ...just like Martha Stewart did, I suppose.

[Aggie93]

here is what the retail book at one big broker looks like

Price shares to buy
$38 32mm
$40 22
$42 15
$45 12
$50 8

Also heard some hedge funds pulled or lowered what they put in for after the deal was supersized. Also retail allocation was increased.

couple brokers reporting what paired off on their books:

13mm shares at $50

20mm shares between $43 - 46

[techweenie]

We're in the final 10 minutes before trading starts. Gonna be an interesting ride.

[techweenie]

Looks like this IPO broke NASDAQ... trading delayed indefinitely.

Meantime, Andy Borowitz weighs in:

A Letter from Mark Zuckerberg « Borowitz Report

[Z-man]

Here is a model that seems to work for solid stock investments:

no assets = no interest in buying stock.

What type of assets does Facebook have? I liken their assets to a term used in cloud computing these days: the internals of the cloud consist of "vapor-ware." Seems that applies to facebook's assets as well, IMHO.

My opinion: there is a fine-line between becoming the next 'google stock' or 'apple stock' and becoming the next dot-com bomb. Facebook must focus on the next generation of social media (whatever that may be) and start implementing that NOW, in order to avoid being just another dot-com failure.

Food for thought.
-Z

[widgeon13]

Opened at 42 and all it's done is gone down. Not very encouraging.

[stomachmonkey]

Originally Posted by techweenie

Not sure if you're aware, but all your 'anti-impression' arguments can be made against any ad medium.

I'm not anti impression.

My argument is focused strictly on FB though it applies to other outlets as well.

I do like to be able to answer "what was your ad spend and result?" with "I spent $x,xxx,xxx and sell thru went up xx% over last quarter" I'm funny that way.

Someone said, and it's true, "If you are not paying for it (FB) then you are not the customer, you are the product".

FB has not been delivering the product.

[steve911]

Hovering around $38 now.

Answer to initial question - no.

[island911]

Just wait until the "Occupy" gen starts buying.

[Jim Bremner]

I like Z-man's take

[jyl]

Crummy trading action in FB today, took whole market down for awhile.
Biggest IPO in the history of the universe [green] might close +5% - you decide how impressive that is.

[KFC911]

No interest whatsoever...

[widgeon13]

Boy am I glad I stayed home on this one.

[techweenie]

Really big black eye for the underwriters. Stock closed @ +0.03%. Street talk said it cost a huge amount of money to prop it up above the opening number. Watch for a big tumble early next week. No worries for the 10 new billionaires in Facebook though...

[slakjaw]

I learned my lesson on buying stock in company's that have to real value back in the 90s.

So no, not today not ever.

[KevinP73]

What happens now? Stock value flat lines for a while then drops off? What effect on the the front side of Fb will this have?

[techweenie]

They have $16 billion to play with, I believe, so they'll probably go on an acquisition spree. If they were smart, they'd buy Twitter. Not holding my breath.