AAPL: How high will it go?

[imcarthur]

A good read . . . LA Times - How Apple invites facile analysis

"What we can say, however, is that the sentiment and stock action related to Apple offer a perfect study in how conjecture and misunderstanding can trump actual knowledge when it comes to evaluating a company."

Ian

[McLovin]

AAPL dropped into the $300s today.

[widgeon13]

Hands over ears!

Nanananananananananana!

I don't want to hear about this.

[Noah930]

How much will you guys give me to sell my stake so that the price will rise once again?

[RWebb]

ok, I bought it back

[techweenie]

Weeping Tim Cook Spotted Screaming For Help At Steve Jobs

[McLovin]

That's pretty funny, but it does highlight a serious problem.

Apple was a huge innovator with the iPod and iPhone, and I guess the iPad.

But the problem is it seems they really weren't able to get much intellectual property protection for those innovations. Since it seems there are now many competitors that look and function in basically the same way. And for much less money (case in point is the Nexus 7 that I bought for $199, that works great).

I'm supposing Jobs was a driving force in these innovations.

But really, those are played out now, and do almost nothing to help Apple continue to grow (and stock price is raised by growth).

So does Apple, post-Jobs, have it in it to innovate the "next big things?"

I don't know. But at this time, there doesn't seem to be much indication that it does.

[techweenie]

I thought it was funny, but like a lot of humor, is factually baseless. Steve left a 5 year product roadmap.

[Rot 911]

Interesting to go back and re-read the first couple of pages of this thread.

[EMJ]

I remember the first time I saw the iPhone 5 and held it in my hand. I had this gut feeling to logon to my etrade account and sell all Apple stock right then. Then the mini-iPad - same feeling. Completely underwhelmed with both. Sure enough, the stock price started its rapid decline right afterwards. Nothing new, nothing fresh in either, and nothing even rumored to be coming down the pike....

[motion]

Originally Posted by Rot 911

Interesting to go back and re-read the first couple of pages of this thread.

No kidding... that's what I get for listening to so-called analysts. I'm done with the stock market. Never was very lucky with gambling.

[Vintage Racer]

Originally Posted by McLovin

So does Apple, post-Jobs, have it in it to innovate the "next big things?"

I don't know. But at this time, there doesn't seem to be much indication that it does.

It is more complicated than that. There are a couple of engineers left at Apple. They are still the dominate player in several different areas.

The value players will come as soon as the growth guys and fan boys are flushed out of the stock.

Apple has $40B in cash. Their profit margin is 25%. Their dividend yield is 2.7% (one percent more than the 10-Year). The ttm P/E is 9. The P/E estimate 8 (that could go up). Most of their fan boys owe more on their credit cards than Apple owes in total corporate debt.

[EMJ]

Originally Posted by motion

No kidding... that's what I get for listening to so-called analysts.

Very true. The analyst "experts" still advocate buying Microsoft in all the financial mags and websites. Microsoft has been a $28 stock for over a decade and this been going on throughout.

[EMJ]

Originally Posted by Vintage Racer

Apple has $40B in cash. Their profit margin is 25%. Their dividend yield is 2.7% (one percent more than the 10-Year). The ttm P/E is 9. The P/E estimate 8 (that could go up). Most of their fan boys owe more on their credit cards than Apple owes in total corporate debt.

Read all of this in multiple articles this week. Problem is, no one reads this stuff. They sell on emotion and lack of cutting-edge product pipeline.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by techweenie

I thought it was funny, but like a lot of humor, is factually baseless. Steve left a 5 year product roadmap.

Someone better tell Cook where Steve left that roadmap, soon!

[Rot 911]

Originally Posted by motion

No kidding... that's what I get for listening to so-called analysts. I'm done with the stock market. Never was very lucky with gambling.

I disagree. I didn't listen to you on Apple, only because I didn't want to spend that much per share on a stock. However, you made me a fair amount of money when you suggested buying Facebook when it dropped to $19 a share and I sold it a few months ago at $32. I also took your advice regarding investing in micro lending institutions. My overall return on them has been a steady 12%. So thanks!

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by Vintage Racer

... Apple [is] still the dominant player in several different areas.

The value players will come as soon as the growth guys and fan boys are flushed out of the stock.

Apple has $40B in cash. Their profit margin is 25%. Their dividend yield is 2.7% (one percent more than the 10-Year). The ttm P/E is 9. The P/E estimate 8 (that could go up). Most of their fan boys owe more on their credit cards than Apple owes in total corporate debt.

quoted for emphasis

[biosurfer1]

When does adding a few features and fixing a few others mean you have innovated and created a whole new product?

Every time Apple comes out with a new product, I think people are less and less impressed with the fact that it is either the same iPhone with added/fixed features or some sort of mini version of one of their other products.

[Vintage Racer]

Originally Posted by EMJ

Microsoft has been a $28 stock for over a decade and this been going on throughout.

Not exactly. I bought Mr. Softie several years ago for closer to $22. I've enjoyed a fair return when including dividends.

I'd rather hit singles and doubles with an occasional home run.

Originally Posted by EMJ

Read all of this in multiple articles this week. Problem is, no one reads this stuff. They sell on emotion and lack of cutting-edge product pipeline.

I disagree. The general public doesn't read this stuff. But they usually get killed and blame someone else.

A serious investor spends a lot of time understanding what the **** is going on.

[motion]

Originally Posted by Rot 911

I disagree. I didn't listen to you on Apple, only because I didn't want to spend that much per share on a stock. However, you made me a fair amount of money when you suggested buying Facebook when it dropped to $19 a share and I sold it a few months ago at $32. I also took your advice regarding investing in micro lending institutions. My overall return on them has been a steady 12%. So thanks!

Good to hear you made a few bucks I sold mine at $26. You have great timing!

My microlending is also returning 12%. Not too bad at all.